Taranaki Herald. (DAILY EVENING.) FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15, 1911. THE NEW PARLIAMENT.

Taranaki Herald, Volume LIX, Issue 143671, 15 December 1911, Page 2

Taranaki Herald. (DAILY EVENING.) FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15, 1911. THE NEW PARLIAMENT.

Writing on Wnrlnesrlay irp paid that thp Gnvrrnraput must nice (kifrat unless it could secure fif-

teen of the thirty seals u r which second ballots had to he taken, and that wp could nor see how it

was possible for fifteen seals to he won; fourteen might go (o the Government, hut probably the number would lie less. Assuming that the absent voters' votes do not change the results at Otaki and Wellington East, eleven Ministerialists were returned nn Thursday, twelve Oppositionists, three Independents, and lour Labour men. Some difference of opinion will exist as to the side upon which a few so-called Independents should ho counted, hut we make out that there are 37 followers of Mr. Massey. 31 Ministerialists, 4 Labour members, and 4 Independents in the new House, exclusive of the Maori members. Five out of the thirty second ballots resulted differently from our anticipations, which is, we think we may claim, a very close forecast. The four we regard as Independents, that is, ns unpledged, are Messrs. Coates, Atmore, Rhodes, and Clark, and we believe at least three of these will be found supporting Mr. Massey in the event of his being able to form a Ministry. Of the Labour members, three defeated Government candidates, and Mr. Hindmarsh defeated the Opposition candidate for Wellington South. Thus three may be expected to vote against the Government on a no-confidence motion. It remains to be seen how the Maori votes will go—one is a certain Ward vote, but the others mat - go with the party which is in power. Mr. Massey’s solid party of thirty-seven, assisted by three Labour votes and probably Mr. Atmore's, must defeat the Ministry on a no-confidence motion in which the full strength of the House takes part. Even allowing the Government all the Maori votes and those of Mr. Hindmarsh, Mr. Rhodes, Mr. Clark, and Mr. Coates, it cannot muster more than thirty-eight, for the Speaker must he put aside, unless it were a tie. Mr. Clark and Mr. Coates will probably throw in their lot with Afr Massey if he can defeat the Ministry on a no-confidence motion, whieli appears certain. If that is so Mr. Massey will command a working majority, whichever way the Maori and Labour votes go. Sir Joseph Ward still maintains that ho will have a majority, hut says he is prepared to do the right thing, which will he, if he is obviously in a minority, to call Parliament together at an early date and put the question to the test. We cannot believe that a few Independent and Labour members will put the country to the expense and inconvenience of another election until they have given Mr. Massey the opportunity of showing what he is prepared to do. Therefore wo are led to the inevitable conclusion that if Sir Joseph Ward does the right thing Mr. Massey will be called upon to form a ministry in the very near future. His success will

tie’.Eiul upon his ability to satisfy the Independent and Labour numbers in -r greater degree tli.i.t Sir Joseph Ward lias satisfied (hem in the past. The most striking features of the second ballots were the emphatic rejection of Sir John Findlay and the Hon. Mr. Fowlds, also the preponderance of Opposition members in the North Island and of Ministerialists in the South. The North Island furnishes twenty-six Oppositionists and only ten supporters of the Governments, while in the South the proportion is eleven to twenty-one. This is a feature worth more than passing notice, for the North Island has for many years been more progressive than the South, and it is significant that it prefers j Ilir- Reform Party to (he Government. The natural inference is that the Reform Tarty is believed to he Pile more progressive in its ideals. The Govern--1 inent swept the West Coast and | secured most of the northern i pari of the South Island, hut in ! tin- southern pari, the Opposition did better. The A'- est Coast oi llie North Island was almost solid I. r Mr. .Massey, the record r-.-ing i spoiled by Eprmoni. where a n«n ! jniiy of i!ie elei tors grasael ai I win 1 will probably prove a sort !o : Dead Sea apple. They thought j ihey were securing a Minister for - !heir representative, lint t Hoy may I find that after all lie is only .lust i an ordinary member, with nothing ;in I'ninmon with (he district, the | -.‘•abject of the political situation -may now he well put aside until s ; after Christmas, for the elections % i have already had a bad effect upon trade.