BUSINESS BAROMETER

Taranaki Daily News, 11 May 1933, Page 15

BUSINESS BAROMETER

favourable movements DOMINION TRADE BALANCE. GREAT IMPROVEMENT SHOWN. More favourable movements in the various business indexes than have apt peared for some time are reported by the Government Statistician in his review for March. The imposition of the sales-tex and the raising of the exchange-rate are factors that exert an upward influence upon certain trends, and this should be borne in mind when considering comparisons with corresponding period? of the previous year. “Banks debits remain higher than usual, and indicate a- turnover at least slightly above last month, although, compared With March of last year, the influence of the exchange and sales tax must be felt to some extent,” he says. “Only a slight variation was experienced in the relative movements of advances and deposits and of fixed and free deposits, hut such as there was tended to substantiate the favourable trend of last month. “The railways show a more promising outlook during the latest four-weekly period for which statistics are available. The balance of operating revenue

over expenditure is still being maintained at an increasingly favourable margin. The close of the tourist season struck an optimistic note with a much higher complement of overseas visitors than was the case a year ago. In fact, •the whole season has been considerably busier than last season. ’ The Und transfer and mortgages businesses continued the improvement shown in. February, while the building industry also displayed a tendency towards greater activity. OVERSEA TRADE POSITION. The oversea trade position was considerably enhanced during March, exports recording an unusually large in* crease. The balance of exports over imports for the month (excluding specie) expressed in terms of New Zealand currency amounted to £3,149,000, as against £1,704,000 for the previous month. Expressed in sterling, this was equivalent to £2,519,000 for March and £1,363,000 for February. . A remarkable movement is traceable in the Dominion’s visible balance of trade during the past two years. This movement is clearly demonstrated in the following table, which shows the balance of trade (excluding specie) in terms of New Zealand currency and in sterling for the twelve-monthly periods ending in each month from January, 1931, to March, 1933,. Twelve New Zealand

From a series of unfavourable balances at the beginning of 1931, with the highest of such balances occurring in February, a gradual improvement has taken place, culminating in the maximum excess of exports for the twelve months ending April, 1932. Thereafter the balance has fluctuated between ine and eleven million pounds New Zealand currency, or eight and ten millions sterling, until in the last period reviewed the highest balance of all was reached. The fact tharthe unfavourable balances for the twelve months ended March and April, 1931, were greater on a sterling basis than when expressed in New Zealand currency is due to a combination of (1) the successive alterations m the exchange- rate, and (2) the unequal distribution' of trade over the year. The effect of the raising of the exchange on January 20, 1933, is easily seen in the greater relative increase in the trade balance in the later months in terms of New Zealand currency as compared with, sterling.

MARKETS ABROAD.

The market ' overseas for the Dominion’s primary produce has been slightly better for wool. The last of the local wool sales registered a favourable trend. Frozen mutton and lamb also maintain a firming tendency, but butter and cheese have reached disastrously low levels. In spite of the serious position of the marketing side of the dairying industry, local production is still creating new records with the help of exceptionally favourable climatic conditions. It appeared from the February figures that, the export season had passed its peak somewhat earlier this year, but the figures show that it had probably only just been reached. The unusually high total (considering the times) of £5 400 000 in value for exports during March was reached, this figure being 47.5 per cent, ahead of February and 50.5 per cent, above that for March, 1932. In considering the latter movement, the influence of the present high exchange rate must not be forgotten. Exceptionally heavy supplies of all the mam primary products were sent forward during March.

BANKING AND REAL ESTATE.

A continuance of the favourable trend recorded Ln February in the volume of bank debits was experienced during March. The total increased by t>.« per cent, but what is of even greater significance is the fact that this figure is as much as 8.3 per cent, above that recorded for March, 1932. Similarly, in the figures of advances and deposits, the relative movement shown in February was continued during March. Deposits increased by 0.6 per cent, while advances decreased by 0.2 per cent. The ratio of free to fixed deposits maintained the desired trend by a further slight increase, while the proportion of advances to deposits moved downwards. A further increase of 18.4 per cent, in the number of transactions in real estate was recorded during March. The total was, however, still 2.6 per cent, below that for March, 1932. Town and suburban properties included in the total show an increase of 14.5 per cent, over February, but a decrease of 7.4 per cent, from March, 1932. This class of business suffered a shrinkage in total transactions of 9.3 per cent, foi- the year. As far as town and suburban properties are concerned, the

diminution of business was slightly greater, 10.6 per cent. As regards the consideration received in these transactions, the proportionate decrease amounts to 16.6 per cent for the year. Mortgages registered show a 12.0 per cent increase over February, but a 16.7 per cent decrease from March, 1932. Discharges record similar movements of 8.7 per cent increase and 14.9 per cent, decrease respectively. For the complete financial year registrations are down by 26.1 per cent and discharges by 23.9 per cent BUILDING INDUSTRY IMPROVES. With a total of only 90, the number of permits issued during March for the erection of new dwellings nevertheless exceeded the total for February by 42.9 per cent., and that for March, 1932, by 38.5 per cent The number of permits issued for all classes of building construction also showed an improvement equivalent to 40.6 per cent, above the figure for March, 1932. For the first three months of the year permits for dwellings were down by only 5-6 per cent., but total permits declined by 10.8 per cent, from the figure for the corresponding portion of last year. The values of all classes of construction work for which permits were issued during March reached an exceptionally high total, one which had not been attained for very many months- This was largely due to the issue of a permit for the erection of the National Museum and the Gallery in Wellington, which would considerably augment the total value of all permits issued.

months ended 1931 Currency £ Sterling £ January . — 958,000 — 873,000 February .... —1,800,000 —1,736,000 March — 306,000 — 458,000 April — 41,000 — 228,000 May ...... 1,522,000 1,151,000 June . ♦ 1,870,000 1,448,000 July 1,881,000 1,448,000 August 3,511,000 3,032,000 September .. 4,635,000 4,130,000 5,267,000 October .... . 5,819,000 November .6,860,000 6,236,000 December 8,453.000 7.695,000 1932 January .... 8,786,000 7,987,000 February .... 10,481,000 9.528,000 March 9,182,000 8,347,000 April ♦••••••• 11,539,000 10,490,000 May •••••••♦ 10,330,000. 9,391,000 June •••«•••• 10,013,000 9,103,000 July ........ 9,847,000 8,952,000 August 10,866,000 9,879,000 September .. 10,718,000 9,744,000 October ...... - 11,335,000 10,304,000 November .... 11.265,000 10,241,000 December .... 10,964,000 9,967,000 1933 January ...... 11,574,000 10,361,000 February .... 10,873,000 9,537,000 March 12.451,000 10,628,000 — denotes excess of imports.