DOMINION DEATH RATE

Taranaki Daily News, 23 July 1930, Page 7

DOMINION DEATH RATE

“REMARKABLY LOW FIGURE.” SURVEY BY STATISTICIAN. Very interesting —also comforting, for most people like to look forward to a green old age—figures were given by the Government Statistician, Mr. Malcolm Fraser, in an address at Wellington last week. The death rate in New Z'ealand now stood at “a remarkably low figure,” he said, and the average ago at death, for both men and women, had advanced greatly (more than doubled for males and trebled for females) since 1876. Birth and marriage rates, on the other hand, had fallen considerably. Mr. Fraser said that there had been a continued and heavy decline in the birth rate from 39.26 in 1855 to 19.01 in 1929 in the “crude rates.” Great as was the fall so shown, however, the full extent was not disclosed until other factors were taken into consideration. The number of legitimate births per 1000 married women (15 to 45 years) fell from 340 in 1878 to 163.8 in 1926, and if all births and all women were taken into account the figures were 221.3 in 1878 and 89 in 1926. There was clear evidence that fewer women were marrying and that those marrying were having fewer children. The average age at marriage had increased in recent years from 25 to over 2.6; * i ■ Death rates had fallen steadily, if no! so fast as the birth rates, and had now

reached the remarkably low figure of 8.75 in 1929. In 1924 and 1925 it was only 8.29, the lowest rate ever recorded in New Zealand or elsewhere. “This rate 39 or 40. years ago would have been regarded as incredible.” said Mr. Fraser. “Tausig, in his ‘Principles of Economics,’ suggests that a death rate of 15 per 1000 is extremely low, and something to be hoped for rather than expected —being in his opinion dependent on the elimination of a large proportion of preventable deaths. We should regard such a death rate as a calamity, and indeed at. the height of our influenza epidemic in 1918 we omy recorded 14.84 per 1000.” “A close examination of the last decade would appear to indicate that we had entered on a new lower level of 8 to 9 instead of 9 to 10, and this fall has come about despite an increasing age constitution. We have now far more older people in the population and more closely approximate the age constitution of the older countries, so that if the death rate had gone up slightly it would merely have reflected this change rather than increasing adverse health conditions. There must, of course, be a minimum, beyond which the death rate cannot fall, but we do not appear to have reached it yet. The improvement in our death rate is, I think, largely the result of the lessened infantile mortality.” After explaining the bases adopted for ascertaining “standardised death rates” by which age groups are balanced up, Mr. Fraser said that so viewed New Zealand’s death rate showed an even greater fall than the crude rates, which indicated that the age constitution )of the population had been increased side by side, with the elimination of able deaths, A

A comparison of death rates by age groups for 1876, 192 b and 1929 showed an "improved position at all ages except 75 and over, but particularly noticeable was the great improvement, in the in-, fant death rate, under one year. Mr. Fraser illustrated his point with several graphs, one of which gave the following percentages of deaths in each age group: 1876. 1926 1929. Under 15 years . . 55 16 14 15 to 59 years . • 31 23 22 50 years and over 14 61 64 The greatest percentage, he pointed out, was now in the older groups. .He called attention again to the reduction of the proportion of infancy deaths, the greatest factor in the lowering of the death rates. . . “The average age at death in 1876 for males was 23.95 years, and foi females 17.64 years, while 53 (..years later, in 1929, it was 53.15 for males and 54.27 for females.” ; , . The proportion of mqles, born, Mr, Fraser said, was considerably higher in New Zealand than of females, but the excess was more than wiped out in the deaths. The influenza in 1918 was much more severe on the males than the females, and the death rates by ago groups is higher for males at all age groups.