THE TRADING YEAR

Taranaki Daily News, 31 January 1930, Page 13

THE TRADING YEAR

.EXCELLENT PRODUCE RETURNS. INCREASE IN IMPORTS. - (From Our Own Correspondent.) Wellington, Jan. 29. The exports from New Zealand' last year, according to the official figures, amounted to £55,579,063, as compared with £56,188,481, a decrease of £609,418, of which £595,270 occurred in the last quarter. The trade returns for the calendar year did not give a correct view of tlie export trade of the Dominion, because in the last quarter of the year the new season’s produce is exported in some quantity. The year ended September 30 is a more reliable guide, and the exports for- the past two years showed very little difference. With October 1 we began a new year, and therefore the past three months amounted to £9,92-1,284, as compared with £10,519,554, showing the shrinkage of £595,270, as stated above. The new season commenced with the export of dairy produce, and the market opened satisfactorily. In October New Zealand butter was realising or. the average 181 s per cwt., the same as in the previous season, and, although values dropped in November, they were still practically. on a parity with the previous November, but after •that there was manifest a aisparit/,’ and by the end of December the 1929 prices had declined by 25s per cwt. as compared with December, 1928. Cheese, on the other hand, had registered a heavy decline right throughout the three months, but it was thought that with the increase in production the returns from butter and cheese would equal that of 1928, but there is now little prospect of that unless the market improves greatly. It is wool and meat that appear to have contributed the mest to the downward movement. We have to rely largely on Britain, and England is faced with difficult monetary conditions. Foi‘ the year ended September 39 last the exports were valued at £56,174,333. as compared with £50,248,593 in the preceding year, the decrease being £74,260, which is trifling. We have had two good export seasons, and now it seems that owing to the fall in prices the current season will show a substantial decline. For the three months to the end of December the shrinkage is 5.65 per cent., and if this ratio is maintained throughout the year the shrinkage in the exports will amount to £4,533,665. But the contraction is likely to be greater than the figures given, because wool has declined to an appreciable extent. Britain may also have to face increased taxation as the result of the so-called legislation of the present Socialist Government.

Then, again, Australia has had copious- rains recently, and we may expect an increased output of dairy produce from that source. So all things considered the year ending September 30, 1930, is likely to disclose a shrinkage in value exceeding £6,000.000. The Government Statistician takes June 30 as the end of the trading year, but this is scarcely a correct ending because in the following three months there is a considerable amount of produce going forward, and this is more noticeable in recent years, since the various boards have endeavoured to regulate shipments. However, we are bound by the official figures, and these show that in 1926 there was a big decline, amounting to £9,943.505, basing values on those of 1925, but in the two following years prices ascended. The recorded value of our exports for the year ended June 30, 1929, totalled £52.113,6-10 for our principal exports, and if these arc valued at the prices ruling in 1914 they would have realised £33,881,857, so that £18,231,783 represents the gain in price. That price gain cannot be expected to continue indefinitely, and may any year fall to a lower level.

The imports for the past calendar year increased by £4,311 ,711 over 1928, but of this total £998.742 occurred in the last quarter and the balance was registered in the previous nine months. The increase shown in the imports seems fully justified when one considers that they coincide with two heavy export years when the purchasing power of the rural population must have been high. About 50 per cent, of the increase in imports occurs in the motor trade. Traders’ stocks cannot be too large, and therefore traders in merchandise should not feel the change very much unless they have entered into engagements that will hamper them.