THE COLONIST. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 1913. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

Colonist, Volume LV, Issue 13654, 20 February 1913, Page 4

THE COLONIST. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 1913. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

Recent naval and military developroents ia Germany are creating profound interest in Europe, and among her immediate neighbours, no small amount of trepidation. Last week the Belgian Chamber of Deputies met in secret session,; to discuss defence questions. The War Minister informed the Chamber thai in the event of a Europe can war the Ministry wouM:.;be"sitting cm avolcario.. l^i^ forces" were mdssi ed to the east and south of Belgium. It is understood, the cable' message continued, that the Premier particulair]y impressed upon the Chamber Germany's military preparations at ELsenborg, where there is a vast manoeuvring camp of -t/ie Ooblenz Army Corps; .also a great-Strategic railway running 'parallel; with the frontier from Aix la Chapelle, -besides other,-strategic lines to Malmedy. These statements, and the process of strengthening the Belgian forces hay© been undergoing for some time, indicate wry clearly that the Belgian Government fears that in the event of war between Gerr many and France, the Powers guaranteeing the neutrality of Belgium would be unable to effectively carry out their obligations. In 1911 the coast defence scheme of the Netherlands Government, involving the expenditure of aver three millions, of which £436,000 wag to be devoted to the fortification of Flushing, caused considerable consternation in Belgium, and was the subject of unpleasant comment elsewhere. It was alleged that the scheme was brought forward under' German pressure, in orde? to prevent the lies of the Netherlands as a base for >»; British war fleet operating against Germany,; or to protect the flank of a German" army in the event of Germany disregarding Belgian neutrality and directing an attack upon France through Belgium. The proposals regarding Flushing would have" converted it into a fortress dominating the only practicable approach by &&a to the port of- Antwerp. Under the Treaties of London of 1831 and 1839, the neutrality of Belgium is guaranteed by Great Britain, Austria, France, Prussia and Russia. That the guarantee is regarded as purely nominal by the Belgian Government, however, is shown by a statement made by the Premier in the Chamber of Deputies some months ago. He said that the Powers guaranteeing Belgian independence were divided into opposing camps, and Belgium must--therefore, rely on herself. The - Government; was anxious, and he hoped Parliament would vote money for th© necessary measures to defend the country's independence. The declaration made a profound impression.. It i& felt in Belgium that in the event of Germany attacking Franco'her treaty rights would be ignored, as through Belgian territory lies the readiest and the shortest by which a German army could reach. France

Th.is apprehension has led the Government, to increase tho strength of the army an which there arc-now being enrolled two sons per family instead of one, giving' a war footing of 250,000, making, with the reserve and the civic guard, a total 0f.' 500,000 men. The period of service for, all-branches has j also-been -increased. The importantproposals contained in the new German Army Bill, greatly increasing the peace strength,. .has,- a© the cables informed us yesterday,-produced an immediate effect in France, where the Government is asking for a vote of £23,000,000 to be spread.over a number of years, for augmenting the army and. strengthen-

ing tile defences. Three sterling will bo spfent immediately on ammunition and artillery. ;^ahd twenty million later in the- building of ' fortieses, heavy artillery, and aviation; As, re 1 gards the" naval rivalry ; it w^uld appear from Germany's belated recognition of Mr. Winston Churchill's definite diminution proposal in introducing the Naval Estimates last year, that them is some promise of an understanding being reached which will enable the terrible, burden; now borne by both countries to be reduced, Mr. Churchill said that if Germany increased her construction Britain would meet it upon a higher >atio of superiority by four additional ships spread over- the ©exenniura. Ho wished to makp.it clear that any retardation or reduction of German construction would meet with England^ prompt response contingent upon tho absence of dangers elsewhere. Supposing both took a year's holiday three ships would not be built. Germany would save nearly seven millions, and automatically wipe out ..five, potential British super-Dreadnoughts. Germany would be no gainer by an increase, nor a .loser' on the basis lie had laid down. •It afforded a phtn .whereby,■without, diplomatic..'.negotiations, ' bargainings', or restriction.of freedom, the keen and costly rivalry could be abated, • ■■"JVc stood on1 the defensive, and a ©urpriso attack upon Germany or anyone else was inconceivable. The proposal did not elicit favourable comment in Germany at the time, but now, from; Admiral yon Tirpitz'e speech, it is evident that Germany accepts "' a substantial British superiority aa inevitable, and is agreeable to the margin laid down by Mr. Churchill. .This, decision has no doubt been hastened by the growing hostility of the German people to heavy expenditure on shipbuilding in addition to the maintenance of a costly army, which alono constitutes a, sufficient burden. But probably the most potent factor is the magnificent display of solidarity the British Empire has given. The spectacle of the scattered Dominions coming to the aid of the Motherland in emergency with capital ships is one to convince naval rivals of the hopelessness of their task.