GERMANY CAN’T WIN

Te Awamutu Courier, Volume 59, Issue 4187, 18 September 1939, Page 2

GERMANY CAN’T WIN

ECONOMIC SITUATION DETERIORATING. HUNGARIAN EXPERT’S ANALYSIS. “Germany Can’t Win” is the verdict of a Hungarian expert who has recently made an analysis of official documents bearing on Germany’s internal economic position. The first English translation of his book has just been published under the title of “Germany’s War Chances.” What chance has Germany of winning the war? Before hostilities broke out a Hungarian professor, who was disturbed by the apparent domination of his country’s policy by the Nazi Government, sought to answer this question. Dr Ivan Lajos, of the University of Pecs, comparing the war potential of Germany to-day with that of 1914, and assuming no cooperation between the German and Russian Governments, gave his verdict, “Germany Can’t Win.” He reinforced his decision by supposing that there would be an understanding between the United States of America and the Allies.

The present balance of forces is too obscure to predict whether these assumptions must be completely written down. But some allowance can be made for them because the major part of Dr Lajos’ book deals with the Qerman scene, her internal strength, and her weaknesses in a war of supply.

Dr Lajos has compiled his book’, which was published in Britain less than a month ago, almost entirely from German sources, the greater part of the text being mere quotations from the crop of military literature that usually seems to precede a war. Fof the author, his book has earned record sales, and probably imprisonment. At the instigation of the German Government criminal proceedings were instituted against him by the .Public Prosecutor of Pecs. Following is a summary of Dr Lajos’ arguments.

THE BLITZKREIG. Victory in a blitzkreig (lightning war) is not considered feasible. In all ranks of the German army there is a shortage of trained men, the lower down the scale the more severe the deficiency. The advantage held by the Central Powers during the World War in possessing an efficient railway system, which enabled the transfer of troops from one section of the front to another with great rapidity has been lost. The demands made on the German Reichsbahn in the l last few years have seriously strained the capacity of the railways, which has been further reduced by neglect of deficiencies in material and replacements. Even express trains have been running eight hours late, and accidents have multiplied. War will greatly increase the strain on the transport system.

Stephen Possony, a noted military critic, wrote last year: “If we suppose an equal economic and moral strength of both opponents, a quick victory is out of the question, or, in other words, defence becomes the decisive factor and the blockade the principal weapon.” What are Germany’s prospects? Dr Brinkmann, a vice director of the Reichsbank, made a speech at Cologne last February to a restricted audience and in confidence. It began: “The three pillars of national economy are labour, raw materials and capital. These three are the foundation on which economic life reposes. In our country all three are exhausted. Our vast governmental projects have created demands for labour which cannot be met out of the human resources of Germany. The result has been, first, a deterioration in the quality of our production, second a considerable increase in the cost of production, third wide differences in wage levels causing intolerable social tension, and finally, a stampede of the rural population into the towns, with disastrous effects on our agriculture.”

THE BLOCKADE. Herr Walter Darre, Minister for Agriculture, openly emphasised earlier this year that there was a labour shortage in German agriculture of more than 80,000 men, which had led to a falling off in production, more especially of meats and fats. German agriculture has been chronically short of capital, and arable land had declined by more than 2,000,000 acres since Hitler came to power because of its use for other purposes. A comparison with conditions in 1914 shows up the new Germany’s

difficulties very clearly. During the first two years of the war there was no question of the rationing of foodstuffs. Until the very end Germany could secure goods from neutral countries on credit. She was then the third largest creditor country in the world, and her financial strength prevented the suffocating enemy blockade from completely sealing up her economic life. To-day Germany is a debtor nation where the signs of inflation are unmistakable. The budget's figures have not been published for several years. “Gold has become the most important war material,” writes a German authority. A nation that can draw on others for raw materials can relieve 1 the strain on its own productive equipment and release men for other duties. Germany’s difficulties in this respect have increased. According to expert opinion there are 34 kinds of raw materials which are indispensable in war. Even after Germany’s recent conquests there are only four of these which she possesses in sufficient quantities, seven of which she requires to supplement by import, aqd 23 for which complete reliance is placed on import. MACHINES THAT FAIL. The decisive factor in armament supply is not the number of guns, aeroplanes and tanks that a nation goes into conflict with, but the degree to which it is capable of making good its losses. Substitute materials have already played an important part in equipping the German forces. Cracks are reported to have appeared in the turrets of battleships, the substitution of aluminium for nickel is causing trouble on destroyers, Turkish submarines built in German yards have had to be refitted after a few weeks’ service, tanks engaging in the Austrian putsch arrived in Vienna by railway truck, and accidents in the air force are not published. The production of coal, iron and steel has expanded enormously, but the quality of the local ores is so poor that domestic difficulty have actually been increased. More trucks are needed to bring coal, and more men are required to serve the furnaces. To make good the deficiencies of skilled labour 60,000 small traders were recently re-

fused a license to continue in business and drafted into the factories. THE HOME FRONT. Dr Lajos make no mention either on the credit or debit side dNlthe in- , elusion of foreign elements within the new empire. Concerning the German people themselves, he says that since 1934 the elections for shop stewards have proved so unsatisfactory from the Government’s point of view that during the last two years none has been held. All police are specially trained to deal with street fighting. Finally, he quotes Himmler, chief of the Gestapo, as follows: "In the war of the future there will not only be the fronts of the armies on land and of the navies at sea, and of the air forces in the air, but there will be a fourth theatre of war inside Germany.” And Karl Pllntschovius: “The question of the civil population and its capacity to endure are factors which have never before as* sumed so great an importance in warfare as they do to-day. The people’s will to fight will be the most sensitive front in the struggle.”