FARMING PROSPECTS.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume III, Issue 872, 25 November 1916, Page 2

FARMING PROSPECTS.

WOOL AND MEAT. SOME DESERT REFLECTIONS. [Written for THE SUN by Its late aericultural editor, now on active service with the New Zealand Mounted Regiment.] Somewhere in Egypt. October 12, 1910. To one who has been in close touch with the stock markets of the Dominion for some years, it comes as a shock lo read in New Zealand papers of lines of fanners' ewes at from 30/- lo 10/- per head, with other classes of sheep in proportion in August. Contrasted with the early years' of the century when close upon a score of sheep could be purchased for a couple of pounds, more especially in the North Island, it makes one wonder where prices will cease to soar. To the heads of mercantile institutions the problems that must arise in connection with financing clients with stock at fabulous figures will cause anxietv at least. Such a wide margin of possible depreciation makes big overdrafts unless clients are in a strong position. Just where the border line as to what is a payable price for a ewe must depend upon the market value of produce, but even in the face of figures now current it seems that prices such as these must mean ul-tra-optimistic buyers. It is an interesting study to review the possible prospects of the industry in the light of current values of stock. After the War. Going back over the last couple of decades a period of financial stringency has been the usual aftermath of war, even when the conflicts pale into insignificance compared with the struggle now raging. The setting in order of the financial world, coupled with the enormous demand that will exist for money, will be unsettling to a degree, accustomed as Ihe Dominion has become to lean upon the Motherland for loans for development purposes. Financial stringency means diminished purchasing power, and lessened consumption. It is this factor that farmers must carefully watch. Fortunately the Dominion's exports are primary products and products that before the war were vearlv becoming more scarce. Prior* to August 1914, German public opinion was on the point of breaking down the agrarian resistance to meat importation, so much so that trial importations of Australian mutton were made. Germany was then short of meat. What must she be now? What will she be in twelve months time? Few of us would wish to sec New Zealand meat going to the Fatherland, nor is it likely to go there. The demand will be for a cheaper class of meat, but the essential fact is that Germany will have to draw from outside sources a large quantity of meat. German Consumption. According to a well informed neutral authority when Germany started this war there were within the confines of the Empire twentythree and a half million cattle, of which eight and a quarter millions were breeding cattle and six million calves. A census was taken on April 30, 1016, and then there were 19,800,000 cattle of all sorts, and practically the same number of breeding stock and calves as previously mentioned. This left 5,200,000 for slaughtering purposes, but included in this are two-year-olds, and consequently immature cattle. Shortage of fodder has very largely reduced the number of swine. Another year and the Hun will be "up against it" to supply the dietetic minimum of the fat and protein without which no human being can thrive. The grain position does not give them much encouragement. Assuming the war continues until August next, it would lake Germany four years to restore the number of cattle and pigs to the necessary level, and in the meantime meat supplies would have to come from abroad. Although the German purchasing power is certain to be considerably reduced compared with pre-war days, yet a new customer to the extent Germany would have to buy, must exercise a tremendous influence upon the world's market. The Wool Market. The war too may be relied upon to break down, to a considerable extent the prejudice of France to frozen meat. Could prospects be brighter for the producer of meat? It must be remembered that America was yearly exporting less meat owing to increasing demands for home consumption. Does not the meat trade offer the most lucrative field of operations for the future? The growing of cereals in the Dominion has not been particularly satisfactory in recent times. Rape and turnips may have been a better investment, but the usual rotation must be adhered to if fertility is to be maintained. The Wool Trade. The English farmer at present is perturbed in mind as to what will happen to the wool trade. The Home clip is to be taken over by the Government, and from apearances it would seem thai lessons learnt by the New Zealand Government will be repeated at Home. Even the taking over of the small clip of England is not without much difficulty, and the experience of Ihe Dominion Government in grain, etc., would tend to discourage any interference in regard to purchasing New Zealand's leading export en bloc, were it mooted. Wool usually suffers the most of our products as the result of economic crises. Slid the prospects are not unpleasing. Go into any NewZealand town warehouse or any country store and you will find a dearth of manufactured woollens. This in a wool-producing country. America has been shut out of the sales, and will again be a customer. This shortage must be world-wide. Stocks arc at a low ebb, and from all quarters there must follow a strong demand for woollen goods. Humans must be clothed and fed, and it is the fortune of the Dominion to be in the food and wool trade.' The Dairying World. Dairying is hardly a vital factor in Ihe economy of Canterbury, yet it affects Ihe Dominion very appreciably. In these days of £12,000,000 locally raised loans, when the country is <"om;ng to a Ballance ideal of self-f"- ince. everything that lends to keep the balance of trade well in favour of the country is a God-send.

The dairying folk have had the time of their lives in the past few seasons, and it is unlikely that prices will depreciate to a great extent in the future. That the present abnormal: figures will continue is too much to' hope for. It remains with the farmers ofj New Zealand for the next few! years to strain every nerve to in-| crease the productivity of the land and consequently the exports. By; doing so they will he doing a service; no less patriotic than they are doing to-dav. m. i-:. l.