The Sun SATURDAY, AUGUST 19, 1916. ACTIVITY IN THE BALKANS.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume III, Issue 788, 19 August 1916, Page 8

The Sun SATURDAY, AUGUST 19, 1916. ACTIVITY IN THE BALKANS.

The fact that General Sarrail has asked for (and obtained) assistance in the direction of the Balkan campaign, coupled with the continuing activity, on a small scale as yet, of the French troops near Lake Doiran, seems to indicate that the Allies are testing the Bulgarian lines with a view to larger operations. It would not be safe to assume just yet that General Sarrail is about to take the offensive. So far we have had reports of nothing but brushes between the opposing patrols, though the latest messages from the Balkans tell of a violent bombardment directed against the enemy positions west and south of Lake Doiran. This activity might mean that General Sarrail was aiming only at preventing the Bulgars reinforcing the Austrians right wing. On the other hand, the Allies may have determined to attack the Bulgarians with a view to forcing Rumania's hand, and bringing the enemy in the Balkans into the open for a straightout test of strength while Germany, Austria, and Turkey are heavily engaged on their various fronts. It would be a fatal blow to pan-German ambitions in the Middle East if the Allies, by defeating the Bulgars, were able to cut the German line to Constantinople, and re-establish Serbia. Tn this connection, a competent observer who has lived in Germany since the war began, on leaving some two months ago, contribute, a

series of articles to "The Times" on conditions in Germany, in which the Eastern aspirations of Germany are explicitly and convincingly staled. The opening of land and waterways from Germany to the east, this writer reminds us, has been the practical object of German ambitions, which popular instincts have supported. With a Zollverein stretching from Antwerp to the Persian Gulf, Germany need fear no repetition of the British blockade. Blocked in the West, Germany turned to the East, via Belgrade and Constantinople, and the crushing of Serbia was one of the first fruits of this expansive scheme. From Asiatic Turkey Germany looked to obtain cereals and fruits and important raw materials like cotton, wool, copper, and oil. The Bagdad railway, so far as it goes£ is the penultimate link in the grand" chain that, if Germany is successf :1 in

winning the war, is to connect Hamburg with the Persian Gulf. It was this bold project that brought Germany down across the Danube last year, and it was in support of the scheme that Bulgaria was bought over by the Kaiser. The writer quoted states that the twin bases of the confidence which he found in the Fatherland up to the time of his departure were "belief in the invincibility of Hie German armies, and the conviction that Germany had already obtained in the East such guarantees of future security as to be practically invulnerable." At the time that comment was made, the Somme offensive had not begun, and the Russians, far from having spent themselves, as was fondly thought by the Central Empires, were planning further and more deadly blows against the Austro-German lines in the Eastern theatre. It is certain that these things, plus the failure at Verdun, and the restlessness in Rumania as the result of the Russian successes, have done something to diminish Germany's confidence, and if the Allies can succeed in getting astride the Teuton highway to "the East by throwing back the Bulgars, the hopes of - Pan-Germanism will be rudely dissipated. "The Times" contributor puts it in these words: "Were Bulgaria to be defeated, either by the Allies alone or with the. help of Rumania, German confidence would receive a fatal shock. .. .

The culling of the land and water routes to the East, and the re-estab-lishment of Serbia, will bring about the ruin of German hopes and the collapse of German confidence not less surely than the winning of military victories over German armies on the Western and Russian fronts." The time, therefore, seems opportune for an allied attack in the Balkans. An offensive on a major scale by General Sarrail would add overwhelmingly to Germany's present anxieties.