CRUX OF THE SITUATION.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume I, Issue 143, 23 July 1914, Page 7

CRUX OF THE SITUATION.

AREA OF EXCLUSION.

WILL THE CONFERENCE FAIL?

OPINION IN IRELAND.

WILL NOT YIELD ONE INCH,

Cable.—Prou Association,—Copyright. LONDON, July 25.. That the Conference made little progress was due apparently to the necessity of a private consultation between the members of the separate groups. The Conference to-day. is expected to discuss the area of exclusion, which is the crux of the situation. Those in close touch with the negotiations are not hopeful of the Conference's success. Opinion in Ireland regards the failure of the Conference as a foregone conclusion. It is reported that Mr Redmond has informed his followers that he will resolutely decline to yield one inch of the counties in which the supporters of Home Rule are in a majority. On the Unionist side, there is an ;» equally firm resolve to claim the whole of Tyrone and Fermanagh. Mr'Devlin, in an interview, said he . did not expect any result from the Conference: He did not care what the Conference did or. failed to, do v but the Ultimate result of the Conference would be the complete independence of Ireland. ;** .

THE LABOUR VIEW.

DERBY MEMBER'S THREAT

. Mr Ramsay MaeDonald, in an interview, Said: —''The King's extraordinary speech makes one rub one's eyes and "wonder whether one is dreaming. The remark about civil war might grace the speech of a Unionist candidate for Parliament."

Mt J. H. Thomas, M.P., speaking at Derby, commented oh the fact that "twb rebels" had been invited to the Palace Conference, while no .labour leaders had been summoned; He said that had he used language similar to Sir Edward Carson's and Captain Craig's, he would have been summoned to the Old Bailey instead of Bucking- . ham Palace. If it was permissible for the wealthy, classes to maintain such an attitude he would not hesitate to r t&ke a similar stand among his own people when placed in a similar position of trial.

LOBBY RUMOURS-

AN ELECTION IMMINENT

The Radical and Independent liberals who promoted the Liberal meeting desired that the meeting should express anxiety about the sovereignty of Parliament, and suspicion of the Palace Conference, but a large attendance of moderates carried a resolution in favour of the Government completing the programme under its Parliament Act before the general election. Thei'e are renewed lobby rumours that' a general election is imminent. Both Liberals and Unionists share the belief in an early dissolution.

WHAT THE PAPERS SAY.

A VARIETY OF VIEWS

The "Daily Chronicle" (Radical) considers the speech ill-inspired. The cry of eivil war is nothing more nor less than a Unionist parrot cry. The speech will only leave one impression on Liberals, that it is as if the King harfl spoken of the Unionist Party as and of the Liberal Party as "they.*' The obviously personal character of the speech is quite unlike ordinary documents dictated by Ministers, and makes, the impression still more painful. The least that can be inferred is that in outside official conversations the King cannot be in the habit of talking familiarly with Liberals, otherwise his illusion that the world of Tory ideas is the whole world could not be so naive.

•The"'Daily News" (Radical) says, tliat it is impossible'to conceal the mistrust arouse.! by the King's intervention,;. :.op--to dissociate the episode from tbo Parliament Act. 1 ' We do not know who the responsible, sober-minded people may be, but we know the cry of civil war has been raised in the Tory Press and on the Tory platform." The Parliamentary correspondent of the "Daily News" says the Government must be identified with the utterances of the Monarch.

The "Irish Independent" (Independent ISiatioJialist) says that v the King, however desirous of peace he may be, has gone the worst way to achieving his Object, and has exposed himself t,o the suspicion that he is influenced •almost exclusively by the Tory view. He should have handled the situation more tactfully and judiciously. The "Daily Mail" (Unionist) says the speech is deeply moving as a personal effort, and of immense importance politically. As the King acted on his Ministers' advice, it may be taken that lie speaks with their concurrence, and the speech is proof that they now realise Ulster's hostility, and her Strength to resist.

The "Daily Telegraph" (Unionist) Rays, the speech was a straightforward appeal. The paper pays a tribute to the King's single-hearted patriotism.

"The Times" considers that the speech will appeal to the nation at large and command respect. The King

has realised the danger of the State drifting into a disaster of the first maguitude. The cry alunit defeating the Parliament Art is absurd.

THE CONFERENCE ADJOURNS.

GUARDS CHEER IRISH LEADERS.

(Received July 23, 8..'!0 a.m.) The conference adjourned till to-mor-row. When Mr Redmond and Mr Dillon were passing the Wellington Barracks a number of the Irish Guards enthusiastically cheered them. A meeting of Nationalists at Enniskillen, carried a resolution that Fermanagh would never agree to any sort of exclusion.

QUESTIONS IN THE COMMONS.

WHO CALLED THE CONFERENCE?

PREMIER ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY.

(R-eceived July 2.'?, 9.50 a.m.)

In the House of Commons Mr A. Ponsonby (Liberal) asked whether the King's speech had been drawn up and published on the advice of Ministers, in accordance with custom and precedent. Mr Asquith replied that the speech had been s£nt to him in the ordinary Way the day before, and he took the whole responsibility. The King had left it for the conference to determine whether the speech should be published, and the conference had unanimously favoured its publication.

. Lord Robert Cecil asked if the conference had been' summoned- upon Cabinet 's advice.

Mr Asquith replied that the King throughout had followed the strictest constitutional procedure, and had taken no step except in consultation with, and upon the advice of his Ministers.

A BREAKDOWN FEARED

NO PROGRESS MADE

(Received July. 23, p.m.)

Reports are current in the lobby that the conference has not made any progress. A breakdown is feared. % HOPE FOR FINAL PEACE.

HAUNTING IRISH QUESTION.

• Iu a special cable to the Chicago "Tribune,'' dated June l.'i, Mr T. P. O'Connor, M.P., writes as follows: — We have had a week of sleepy tranquility in the House , of Commons, and scarcely a mention, except incidentally, of the Irish question; but the Irish question still haunts' everybody's thoughts and everyone watches with greatest Scrutiny every speech or incident which may seem to forecast the uncertain future.

The ' outstanding factor this week is Redmond's open approval of the Nationalist 'Volunteer movement. Everybody recognises that this introduces a momentous new factor into the whole situation.

The argument that refusal of Home Rule involved dangers quite as real to peace in Ireland as that threatened by the Ulster Orangemen now is realised by, English opinion, which is rather inclined to accept the view hammered in by the Tories that because Southern Ireland- presented such a contrast in its tranquility to northern effervescence, Home Rule had ceased to be as passionately demanded as ever. Warning to Orangemen.

The National Volunteers produced further effect by proving to the Orangemen that they will not, if they begin attacks on Ulster Catholics, have to confront unarmed and unorganised victims, as in the riots of two years ago. The Tories also are brought face to face with some of the inevitable consequences that follow Carson's appeal to rides. By curious and expected contradiction the Tories of England already are beginning to demand the suppression of the National Volunteers, forgetful of their patronage of the similar movement by the Orange Volunteers. A further factor which helps towards a 'settlement of the Irish question, by producing a reaction against Carsonisin, is the continued ferocity of the suffragists, Whicli now presents to the English public the enormous growth in lawlessness which Carsonism involves. A further indication of this disastrous change in the old English attitude of lawabidingncss was given during the debate" on the new Insurance Act for the unemployed bv the open threat of Labour, leaders that when a slump followed the present gigantic trade boom the workingmen without employment and without food would not accept conditions with the same resignation as in the past, and would follow the example of Carson's Orangemen.

Die-Hards Still Defiant,

Thus though Carson's speeches in Ulster and Bonar Law's last speech in Scotland breafhe the same old party fury, and though the die-hards are at present in the ascendancy in the Tory Party, shrewd observers persist in believing that the whole struggle will end in some settlement. The chief difficulty to settlement is the absence of firm leadership among the Tories, Bonar Law being much discredited.

It is still believed that Carson would welcome a solution, but finds his difficulty in the greater violence of his own followers. There are rumours of dissensions in the Orange forces. Some extremists already are beginning to suspect that Carson may agree to some settlement they detest, but other forces from a different direction Inake Carson's position more difficult.

Business Belfast at last is beginning to feel tjie severe pressure of this uncertainty, and this is accentuated by the great interruption of business relations with Southern Ireland. It is announced in the London Tory organ that recently five linen merchants of Belfast have failed.

The Form of Settlement,

It is difficult to forecast what precise form settlement finally will take. It may be exclusion, but it may not. It may be peace, it may be rupture... On one hand the die-hards may get the House of Lords to reject the Amendim; Bill in the hope of provoking a rebellion in Ulster and thereby forcing the Government to an immediate general election,, and Tory organisers certainly are preparing for an election in July. J remain convinced that the Amending

Bill will be passed;.-vyith Carsonite amendments in the House of Lords; that there will be- a haggling for, fsonie weeks, and that ultimately the universal feeling in favour of settlement will bring the party leaders into conference, including perhaps Redmond, and and that a scheme will be hammered out which at once will the face of Ulster and guarantee;.liberty, and unity- to Ireland.. But violent speeches and-some violent scenes may occur between this moment and the ultimate hour. These things will be exaggerated, but the supreme and final conditions impose final peace.