The Stratford Evening Post. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1913. THE TRADE OUTLOOK.

Stratford Evening Post, Volume XXXV, Issue 28, 1 February 1913, Page 4

The Stratford Evening Post. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE EGMONT SETTLER. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1913. THE TRADE OUTLOOK.

At the beginning of last December tho British Board of Trade issued returns of imports and exports, which showed that tho trade for the preceding eleven months amounted to tho wonderful total of £1,219,454,726, an increase of £94,255,679 over the same period in 1911. Exports had expanded £30,264,383 and imports £55,436,248, the totals for the eleven months being imports £670,883,764, and exports £445,974,964. The enormous advance in imports was due to an increase not only in tho quantity of raw materials brought into the country, but also because of the advance in the price of nearly all tho imported staple products necessary to tho great manufacturing concerns. Over four-fifths of tho increase in November alone was due to a rise of £4,672,802 in raw materials. Of this increase raw cotton accounted for no less than £2,988,697, but the increase in value was much greater than the relative increase in quantity, cotton being dearer than in the previous year. Among exports tho largest increase was that of coal, which rose from 5,793,231 tons, valued at £3,362,129, in 1911, to 6,465,071 tons valued at £IBI,OOB, in 1912. Though the total exported shows a large increase the increase in value was even proportionately greater. It is also noted that while manufactured experts as a whole rose by £1,369,998, cotton fabrics fell by £272,114. Of the thirtylive classes of exports given in the Board of Trade return, only three—iron ore and scrap iron, oils, and silk fabrics—fell during tho eleven months of the year as compared with the corresponding period of 1911. For some time before the publication of those official returns tho ‘Daily Mail’ and other newspapers had been predicting great things, and the former journal had been conducting independent investigations in the great manufacturing centres of England, these investigations showing an almost universal boom in trade, an unsatisfied demand for labour in many industries, and great manufacturing prosperity. Endeavouring to trace tho causes under-

lying this boom in trade, which does not appear by any means to be re-

stricted to the United Kingdom, Professor, Bow ley, an acknowledged authority on economics, shows that improved conditions of employment have not necessarily synchronised with periods of boom, and further that the latter are not exclusively associated with a rising tide of prices. The great trade boom of 1872-3 was the culmination of a high spring tide of prices; the lesser booms of 1880-1 and 1889-90 were on the ebb tide that persisted from 1873 to 1896; those oi 1899-1900, and 1906-7 were —-as is that at the; present time—again on the rising tide. Professor Bowley’s opinion iS| that “the present industrial activity! may bo attributed to the concurrence, of several forces which have beenpressing for the past ten years; the. continual rise of prices which makes! production profitable and manufacturers hopeful; the rise in the rate of in-1 terest which encourages industrial in-j vestment; the accumulation of savings' which has made capital plentiful; the; well-organised reserve of machinery| and workmen ready for action; the: growing wealth of the world and of; the United Kingdom in particular.” As| to how long this present boom of tliej world’s business will last, and the highi prices for our staple products will con-j tinue, Professor Bowloy speaks v,ith caution, but he considers that if pro-! ducers are not in too great hurry to realise profits, if investors are not over! confident, and if no political or financial shock occurs, ‘‘there is no apparent necessary cause to prevent industry continuing at' a level not far below the present indefinitely, but,” ho finally tells us “that the records show that the conditions of prosperity have never been realised for any long period, and a reaction is certain, though neither its date nor cause can bo foretold.”