MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEW

Southland Times, Issue 23610, 10 September 1938, Page 19

MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEW

SUBSTANTIAL RISE EXPECTED TWOPENCE TO THREEPENCE MENTIONED A more optimistic view of the price to be guaranteed this season is taken by The Dairy Exporter, which expects the increase to be between 2d and 3d. Commenting editorially on the evidence presented to the Guaranteed Price Committee, The Dairy Exporter says:— If the evidence presented on behalf of the industry is read carefully, it will be evident that a 'substantial increase must certainly have been recommended by a committee charged with the task of fairly and impartially adjudicating on the evidence. Just what that recommendation is, has been kept a closely-guarded secret, but it is possible, if the evidence is studied, to secure some idea as to what the likely recommendation would be. In the daily Press recently there appeared a suggestion that the report had been a unanimous one, and that the recommended increase was 2d per lb. We would expect, on the evidence, that the increase would be rather more than that. PROBABLE INCREASE It will be seen at a glance that both the butterfat output a unit and the butterfat a cow were much overstated in last year’s recommendations, and these, combined with labour factors and other subsidiary points, make for an increase of at least 3d per lb butterfat; in fact, if the Dairy Board’s evidence alone were taken as the basis, the increase would probably have to be slightly over that amount. Almost inevitably, though, there would be a shading-down here and there, and if, as reported, the findings were unanimous, we would expect that the recommended increase would be somewhere between 2d and 3d per lb. A unanimous report could be expected from a committee of the size and calibre of this year’s team. Each and every man on it knew the position thoroughly; all were capable of fairly assessing the evidence presented. They were dealing with figures into which a great deal of careful detailed work had gone, and which were along lines not very different from those obtained last year by the Government Statistician himself. It is impossible, when those figures are traversed, to come to. any other conclusion than that the industry has, during the past two years, suffered a definite handicap, as producers in so many districts have been asserting INQUIRY INTO FARM COSTS

The substantial increase in this year’s recommendation was solely the result of careful investigations into farm costs carried out on behalf of the Dairy Board. Had those investigations not been made it is practically certain that there would have been very little difference between last season’s price, and that which is to be paid for the present season, for the committee which adjudicated on evidence presented, would have had only similar statistics to those presented last year. These quite clearly did not present a fair picture so far as the farmer is concerned, and one immediate outcome of an increased price is a realization that there has been serious underpayment 1 during the past year. If a price which will show an average pay-out of, say, 1/sis a proper price for the season begun on August 1, then.it is obvious that a payout of 1/3 was far from just in July and earlier months.

If, as has been suggested, the Guaranteed Price Committee’s findings were unanimous, a fine tribute has been paid to the fairness and accuracy of the industry’s case, for quite clearly the Government members would carefully and critically examine every statement that tended to show that last season’s guaranteed price was unfairly low. It is a tribute, too, to the work of Professor Tocker, who prepared the case from statistics gathered by the Dairy Board from various parts of New Zealand.