The Week Over The World

Southland Times, Issue 23332, 16 October 1937, Page 7

The Week Over The World

Strategy In Eastern Waters

(By

SCRUTATOR)

By far the most significant of Japan’s declared objectives in China is her intention to occupy Hainan Island, a Chinese possession 20 miles from the mainland. The Powers have been closely watching Japanese activities near this island since the conflict began. When the Japanese shelled Hoihow, the chief port, recently, the French Ambassador made representations to Tokyo. A further attack led to fears that the Japanese intended to occupy the island, but when questions were asked in Tokyo officials refused to comment. The reason for the Powers’ anxiety is obvious. Hainan lies close to the main route between Singapore and Hong Kong and within a few miles of French Indo-China (hence the particular concern of France). It is also within 1200 miles of the Philippines, and possession of it would bring the Japanese closer to the Dutch East Indies. Air and naval forces concentrated at Hainan would control the communications of a large part of the South China Sea. In fact, Hainan Island under Japanese domination would be a direct threat to every foreign interest in the Far East, an ace up Japan’s diplomatic sleeve and a further example of the success of her policy of gradual usurping of European and American vantage points. The cost to Britain of this Japanese encroachment is emphasized by Mr Graham Hutton in his study of foreign affairs, “Is it Peace?” Mr Hutton says: The Far Eastern prospect must of necessity be far more disturbing to any British Government than to the Russian or American governments. For the British have too many isolated possessions in the Pacific, all admirably adapted to that policy of “nibbling” which the Japanese have contrived with consummate ability topursue in the face of disinterested British governments. And, in future, the British Empire will not be permitted to cope with trouble in one region at a time. To this extent the Far East must remain a discomfiting preoccupation in the minds of British political leaders, whether in London or in Cape Town. New Delhi, Canberra or Wellington.

To this Miss Freda Utley, in “Japan’s Feet of Clay,” adds the warning:

Britain and the United States will not for ever be in the favourable position they are in today. Leave Japan to proceed in China, be afraid to call her bluff, let her have time, and she will be able, with the possession of Chinese iron and coal and cotton and with the profits from squeezing the masses of the Chinese people, soon to acquire the military invulnerability which she is falsely supposed to have already. In that event she may one day realize the

dream of her ruling classes and become the mistress of Asia and of the South Pacific, and cast her shadow over the whole world.

Last week-end reports from Tokyo encouraged the hope that Mr Roosevelt’s declaration would enable the liberal elements in the Japanese Government, support by the uneasy industrial leaders, to modify the militarists’ reckless ambitions in China. Japan’s definite statement of her objectives makes it apparent, however, that the Army leaders mean to ensure a substantial dividend from their military investment before peace is finally made. Japan’s first objective—complete occupation of all territory north of the Yellow river—is almost achieved already; her second—a decisive victory at Shanghai—can only be a matter of time. The third objective is occupation of Hainan Island. And while the signatories of the NinePower Treaty are “considering” the League invitation to a conference at Brussels, each fresh success of the Japanese armies in the field will add to the influence of the Army in Japan itself; and the exultations of a victorious people may drown the voice of moderation, so that the risk of rousing foreign intervention by the seizure of Hainan would be discounted by the great profit such a step would bring.

A SOVIET ELECTION

On December 12 every Russian citizen who has reached the age of 18 will be entitled to vote at the first general election to be held under the Soviet regime, and the first ballot to be taken since the new Constitution was adopted last December. Only criminals and the mentally deficient are denied the right of suffrage, and secret balloting is substituted for open. Previously the franchise was withheld from certain groups which, because of their former social order or occupation, were not recognized; actually the direct franchise was exercised only through the thousands of local soviets, upon which the pyramid form of the Soviet Government is established. Thus the district, regional, republican and all-union congresses of soviets were elected by delegates appointed by the next lower congress; under the new Constitution the polling on December 12 will elect, by the direct vote of the people, all organs of State power, and all elected deputies will be subject to recall by a majority decision of the electors. Two chambers of equal legislative power, the Council of the Union and the Council of Nationalities, will form the highest administrative body of the new Government, the Supreme Council; the Council or Nationalities will have as a special charge the problems of each of the many nationalities of the Soviets 180,000,000 inhabitants. When the new Constitution was announced its electoral reforms were hailed by the Soviet Press as proof of M. Stalin’s real desire to leaven the stern discipline of his communist dictatorship with some of the best features of Western European democracy. But Russia is still a one-party, totalitarian State, and candidates for the coming election cannot be nominated freely; they can be proposed only by Communist Party organizations, trades unions, Soviet youth organizations and cultural groups. The only possibility of a real conflict at the polls, as democracy knows it, is in a clash between a Stalinist and a Trotskyist; that is, between a supporter of the present regime, with its anti-Comintern tendencies, and bureaucratic system, and a disciple of the exiled Trotsky s relentless doctrine of world revolution. But the penalty of Trotskyism inside the Soviet is death by the orders of Stalin, and he would be a bold candidate indeed who would openly declare his adherence to the Trotskyist cause.