The Southland Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1916. ROUMANIA.

Southland Times, Issue 17652, 9 February 1916, Page 4

The Southland Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1916. ROUMANIA.

♦ ■ Roumania, never far away from the edge of the turmoil since the war first convulsed Europe, appears now to be on the very brink. We judge this less from the fact that the Roumanian army has been lined out along the Austrian and Bulgarian frontiers than from the apprehension that obviously exists in Germany. German information from Bucharest is not likely tc be far astray, and it is clear enough from the tenor of the comments on the situation which are being made in Germany that Germany’s information is not reassuring. The German Ambassador in Bucharest is telling his Government that the Roumanian army and the Roumanian people are with the Allies and that a decision to take the field in their interests may be reached at any minute. This is sc much to the good, and it is always possible, of course, that Roumanh may join the Allies. But there are certain reasons which warn us against any undue optimism on that point The first of these is that Roumania has been on the verge of war any time these last twelve months. It will be remembered that in January last year February 24th was the date fixed for Roumania's intervention. But Roumania is still neutral, and though appearances now point very strongly to war it is by no means impossible that Roumania will still be neutral twelve months hence. The next reason is that the military and economical situation is less favourable to-day to Roumanian intervention than it was twelve months ago. Then the Russian armies were far advanced in Galicia and Poland, Bulgaria was neutral and Serbia was unconqnered, I Now the Russian armies are east oi the, Bug, Bulgaria has joined the Central Powers and is therefore the enemy jof any nation which joins the Allies, Serbia is under the German heel ! Montenegro is in the enemy’s possesIsion, and Albania has been invaded, ] It is all very well to say that if Rou- | mania joined the Allies the Roumanian army would sweep across Hungary towards Budapest while the Russian army marched across Roumania upon Sofia. That is one point of view only. The other point of view is bound to receive attention at Bucharest, and from it there is the obvious possibility of an invasion of Roumania from three sides. Roumania has to ask -what assurance she has that her fate will not be similar to that of Serbia. Though the Allies had command of the Mediterranean and could land armies at Salonika, though Italy commanded the Adriatic and could land armies in Montenegro and Albania, Serbia had to bear the whole

brunt of the enemy's onslaught alone. Her people became refugees and the remnants of her shattered army drifted through the mountain passes into Montenegro and Albania. The Anglo-French force which landed at Salonika and advanced through Macedonia was quite inadequate 'so far as assistance to Serbia was concerned, and had no recourse but to fall back immediately the enemy attacked. What assurance has. Roumania got that Russia would be able to save her from a like fate? The enemy would certainly be able to contain the Allied force at Salonika, to offer a very strong resistance to any advance the Russians might attempt, and still have an enormous army to throw against

Roumania. The Roumanian army is untried in war. It is not like the Bulgarian army and the Serbian and Greek armies, all of which have been proved repeatedly in recent campaigns. The Roumanian army has a first-class reputation for smartness and efficiency, and there is every reason to believe that it would acquit itself well, hut at present it is an unknown quantity. Though Roumania is the most populous of the Balkan States and has the largest army, the Roumanian force would certainly be outnumbered by the combined army which the Central Powers would send against it. That army would consist of Austrians. Germans, Bulgarians and Turks. Therefore Roumania cannot enter the war without positive assurance of the support of a large Russian army, and at present we do not know if that army is available. These are the facts of the situation which have to he taken into consideration by anyone who wishes to balance probabilities. As to the economic position, Roumanian prosperity vanishes if she cannot export the products of her soil. Where can she export at the present time? The only outlet to the sea is by way of the Bosphorous and the Dardanelles, which are closed. Roumanian neighbours on land are Russia, Austria and Bulgaria. Russia has more wheat to export than Roumania herself, and the avenues of trade which are open to Roumania are narrowed down to the Central Powers. It is true that Britain has recently given an order to Roumania for wheat to the, value of £10,000,000, and possibly has paid the cheque; hut not a bushel of wheat has left Roumania. The Central Powers can buy Roumanian wheat and take delivery of it. Owing to the way in which the war has gone in the Near East, Roumania’s economic interests are now more closely allied with those of the Central Powers than with those of the Allies, and Roumania is hound to consider the economic consequences of intervention on the Allies’ side. It is necessary to point out. of course, that we are dealing merely with such facts as we know, not with suppositions. The Allies may have undertaken to finance Roumania to any extent that may he needed; Russia may have undertaken to throw three-quarters of a million men into Roumania immediately she joins the Entente. Roumania may have had such guarantees of financial and military security that her mind has been relieved of all doubt and her decision is made. On the other hand none of these things may have happened, anG it is idle merely to guess. We can go only upon the position as we know it, and the obvious facts are that whereas Roumania twelve months ago appeared to he as near war as she appears to be to-day nothing came of it, and today conditions • are less favourable to intervention than they were then.

One piece of news that comes to light in the comments on the Roumanian situation is that Czernowitz is still in the enemy’s hands. Many weeks ago the Austrians were reported to have evacuated part of the town, but apparently the greater part of it is still occupied by’ them, and though the Russian guns are within range the capital of Bukowina is not yet in Rus-

sia’s possession. Czernowitz is of immense importance, for Roumania would certainly enter the war in the hope of pushing her frontier beyond the Bukowina and Transilvania. The course of events in the Near East will be followed with the greatest interest, for Roumanian intervention on the Allies’ side would have far-reaching consequences, possibly affecting the attitude of Greece.