The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. MONDAY, 21st OCTOBER, 1901 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN.

Southland Times, Issue 1507, 21 October 1901, Page 2

The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. MONDAY, 21st OCTOBER, 1901 THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN.

The late ruler in Afghanistan has gone the way that all rulers and subjects must go. The eldest Bon has taken hia place. This son, Habibulkh, had been initiated and indoctrinated in the business, and for a considerable time was entrusted with a share in the administration, The father wished and intended that thia son should be his successor, and the assumption of office by the latter was at least without any open opposition. It is not by any means certain, however, that the same smoothness is destined to endure. Things do not always eventuate in accordance with even the best laid schemes. The late Ameer himself had no small difficulty in making good his claim to the throne. He had to run and take shelter for some time in v Russiao territory. He entered into a bond of firm friendship with England, and at length succeeded in making his position secure. The English found this friendship of much value. Under her legis the Ameer was secure from aggression, and Afghanistan, as an independent State, constituted an invaluable buffer between India and the power of Russia. This friendly alliance continued, the English furnishing the Ameer with a subsidy of £160,000 a year, besides sc^ine complemeat of

arms, etc. The present ruler professes to be equally friendly and anxious to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor. It remains to be seen, however, whether that ia to be without being challenged. The succession in Oriental countries is not the sam orderly and matter-of-course thing that it is in England. The Ameer has several brothers. The claim of the youngest, Omar, is supposed to be stronger than that of the eldest. His mother was the favourite queen, and besides was of the blood royal, being a relation of the Ameer himself. The young Omar has fled, having persuaded the other brothers to accompany him. I What his real motive is is not yet known. He may have disdained to do obeisance to the son of the lower born woman, or it may have been with a view to ulterior measures and a design on the thorne, or it may be simply from a foreboding of evil. The ways of the east are peculiar, and nearnCss of relationship is often the reverse of a protection. Omar's .confidence in Russian hospitality, we may be sure, is not by any means misplaced. Russia has probably no immediate intention of spreading herself over India, but she would dearly like to have the control of the dominion lying between, not simply as a thing valuable in itself, but also as a territory which would bring her at once into juxtaposition with our Indian frontier — a position from which she could at leisure study the problem of her further advance, and at any time make a demonstration that might facilitate her progress in some other quarter from which it might be the interest of the English to exclude her. She is making rapid preparations in that quarter, accumulating men and stores. Her railway communications are within a day or two's march of Herat, the key of north-west Afghanistan. She is mobilising her Cossacks further to the west. At the same time the Russipn press is zealously pointing/)ut the opportuneness of the present time for bringing Afghanistan within her "sphere of influence" while Britain's hands are tied by the war in South Africa. The magnanimity and fairness of some of the great Powers are a very indefinite quantity. That Russia has been anticipating this contingency there can be little doiibt. It would not be surprising if she had something to do with the flight of that young man. But with all this show she may not be prepared to drive matters to extremes by espousing the cause of the young man and advancing on Herat, She may indeed be taking up the present attitude as a trump card to be played against any possible obstruction on the part of England in the Far East. The difficulties in Manchuria are not yet settled and the new Convention is not in accordance with the liking of the Chinese Court and Government. Russia will naturally desire to ensure the neutrality or connivance of England in the business, and perhaps hopes to secure it by drawing attention to the retaliation within reach to the westward. That Russia would be ungrateful enough to offer a menace in this way one can understand, but one can hardly understand why it should be deemed necessary on that score, seeing that England made no serious objection to the occupation of Manchuria, and displays no marked disposition to interfere in such settlement as Russia and China may agree upon with regard to that province The methods of Russia are always enigmatical. She stalks her prey after ways of her own, and advances or retreats as prudence or the fates may determine. The attitude &he has a*ssumed towards the West, however, and the flight of the youthful Omar have given rise to some apprehension as to what may eventuate. The British Government is not inattentive to the more or less critical situation of affairs. It has promptly recognised the title and government of the newly installed Ameer and expressed its appreciation of his friendly alliance, while as a counter-movement, evoked by Russian activity, England is making it known that the alliance and the status quo will be maintained. The telegram says that two ambulance corps have been forwarded to the frontier. That message must have suffered some damage in transition. It is far more likely that two army corps have been put in motion. It scarcely seems credible that Russia seriously means to challenge England— the war in Africa notwithstanding. There are some who would rejoice at it if she does, some envious Germans and spiteful French would be intoxicated with the delight of it. But Russia will very likely disappoint them and pull in her obnoxious horns. She is, however, so unreliable and dubious in her ways that there will necessarily be more or lesß of anxiety and suspense until the horns are retracted.