GOURKO FORECASTS.

Rangitikei Advocate and Manawatu Argus, Volume XLII, Issue 11443, 24 January 1918, Page 5

GOURKO FORECASTS.

HOW LONG WILL THE WAR LAST? General Gourko, the Russian commander who overran East Prussia in the early days of the war, writing in the Weekly Despatch, says:— § Provided ftbo-V Ilies suffer no further untoward set-.b ick like the Russian revolution, I think the war will be over in the autumn of 1918. Although I am very strongly of opinion that Germany lias lost the war, in that she lias failed to achieve that which she set out to accomplish, it would bo nothing short of disastrous if the Allies slackened up under the delusion that the war w;s won beyond all doubt. The Russia!! revolution has given the Germans the opportunity successfully ru mulert kespect.cuIsr campaigns as a set off to this continual pressure on their lines in Franco and Eelgirm. Perhaps one of the most, significant moves during the whole war is the present offensive which the Germans and Austrians have neon making against the Italians, on tho Isouzo. It provides incontestable evidence that the Germans must have withdrawn considerable numbers of troops from their Eussi m front, and, more import nt still, gives proof of tire fact that Germany has given up all hope of effecting a rapprorchomcut with Italy.

lam convinced that the CcilVdlU Command is co-operating \wtl' Austrians with a certain amount of reluctance. Up to now the Germans and tho It Rians had not mot on the field of battle. Probably Germany never altogether gave up hopes of effecting :> sepirate pe ico with It ly. Within the next two months I slntll bo groitly surprised if tire Allied force in lie Biikans is not subjected to verv violent attacks from a combined Gorman, Austrian and Bnlgiriau army. Perhaps an attack may be made on the British force in Mesopotamia. It came to my knowledge some time ago that the German high Comm aid endeavoured to persuade the Bulgirians to dispatch an expeditionary force to Mesopotami . But the Bulgarians very wisely refused. They declined to 11 iht away from their own country, and probably, with a very fair appreciation of their allies, decided to keep their troops within easy reach.

Generjl Sarrail’s position in the Balkans is full of perilous possibilities. His line of communication is through the so:, in itself a continual source of danger. Germany is fighting for the future. The dramatic landing in the Gulf of Riga, the combined attack on Italy, and the successful invasion of Roumania l-'st .year are all part of a flamboyant frdioct to bewilder their war-weary people with their invincibility. But «11 these campaigns moan nothing. I am sure in its heart of hearts the German command knows only too well it lias lost the war. Nothing is simpler than to detach an overwhelming force to ensure spectacular success. I do not think that Germany will fight on until she is completely crushed. She will continue until such time as defeat is beyond all doubt,, or until the conquered territories she is now occupying looks like slipping from her grasp. Then she will notify her willingness to enter into peace negotiations, end with her occupied territories as pawns will say to t.bo conference:—

“I hold these as security for favourable treatment.” The Allies are not likely to be blinded by such diplomacy, 'in a way the rapid changing of German troops from one front to another is of distinct v.lue to the Allies. It has the effect of kee iug the armies of the Central Empires in a state of con tiuual disorder, although, of course, the neutral world is perhaps deeply impressed by the apparently amending supply of troops which Germany appears to possess. Nothing is more certain than that this shuffling of divisions represents a despor.-ito attempt to convince the world that she is still in a position to concentrate men in any number. Whether the Germans imagine they are impressing the allied commanders with their recent conquests is very doubtful. No great soldier worthy of the name . ■would treat them as of tany military value. Rather would he see them in a ratlike effort to escape from a trap which every day closes around tighter. The remorseless pressure of the French and British armies on the western front and the enor : mous prepondenuce in heavy artillery which 'the Allies possess make any attempt at an att->ck there improbable. So expeditions are launched on lonely parts of the Russian coast in combination with the navy.