Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, SATURDAY, MAY 29, 1937. A FALLING BIRTH RATE

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LXIV, Issue 19337, 29 May 1937, Page 4

Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, SATURDAY, MAY 29, 1937. A FALLING BIRTH RATE

Among the many question* thai will bo discussed at the present Imperial Conference it is not likely thai the declining birth rate within the Empire will receive more than passing attention; yet every other subject which the conference does discuss will bo vitally affected by this one out standing problem. Every country within the Empire, individually and collectively, is attempting to plan i'oi the future on the assumption thai there will be a steady increase ii population. This is the basis of the whole Imperial .structare, and the whole foundation is instable, because, instead of an expanding race, the Empire to-day is well on the way towards race suicide, and, in the absence of remedial measures, extinction is only a matter of time. This situation, however, unpalatable it might be, has to be faced, not apologetically, but boldly and with determination. Great Britain is the main source of the Empire's white population, yet the position has already been reached where the net. reproduction rate is below that, which is necessary permanently to maintain the present level of population. Indeed, the position is even worse than that for it has recently been estimated that if the present trend continues the population of the. Mother Country will decline by 12,000,000 within the next •10 years, ami by the end of the present century will be only half its present size. The position at Home Is not by any means unique, but if more or less typical of the whole Empire. New Zealand, for example, in IS7O-S0 had n birth rate of more than ■II per 1000 j by lf)26*-?>0 it had fallen to 21..°.-; and at the present time is is between 15 and 10. in Great Britain, the rate was HO per 1000 in 1890, 25 per 1000 in 1025. and less than 15 in 1!).'54. The highest birth rate of any Empire country in lil.'l-l was 2.". per 1000 in Canada. Nor is the position even stationary, for the decline continues year after year, spoiling .slow tragedy for the British rase.

The implications from this position demand the en refill attention of every thinking person, and the mote thought that is given to the question the more serious will become the general concern. It has been slated that the Imperial Conference will deal with three principal subjects —trade, defence, and immigration. It is interesting to consider the bearing which the birth-rate and population

have on/ each of these problems. ll lias boon stated by our own Prime Minister that; the best defence is population and ihat the only claim to territory is that it .shall not remain empty and unused. It might well lie

risked where New Zealand is to obtain the people to constitute its first line of defence and justify the occupation of the country. The population already is virtually stationary and the lime is not far distant when it will no longer bo possible lo look to the Mother Country for a steady flow of immigrants, since her own population will be continually shrinking. In this country there is no hope of pro<rress and prosperity without more people, yet all the indications are that the population, instead of increasing, will decline. All the economic hopes of the Empire are based on the assumption of an ever-increas-ing population; the Ottawa agree'-. merits, for instance, were based on expanding markets for Empire produce, but lo some extent, at least, expanding markets are, dependent upon an increasing number of consumers. If the population of Great. Britdin is reduced by 12,000,000 in the next 10 years, how is New Zealand, for example, to dispose of her everincreasing quantity of primary pro iluec.' Jn this country, as in every other part of the Empire, industrial expansion and public works are undertaken on the assumption of increasing population; in no other way can they be justified. Politicians and industrialists claim to be looking to the future, but the future, unless there is :, reversal of the present trend of the birth rate, will require a reduction of activities instead of an increase.

With the recognition of these facts there then arises the question of how host to remedy the situation; how to create iiv people a desire to have families instead of to avoid them. It may be that the present position is merely the result of a cycle that will change of its own volition, but the outlook is too serious to permit of such a complaisant, view. The present trend is ascribed to a variety of ( ~,.n se s--incroaslng birth control, the fear of war, unemployment, and the economic lot of the masses-yet none of them provides the real reason. Birth control is as old as human nature, although in recent years Us practice may have been facilitated. The fear of war has always existed; i, W as less perhaps than ever ... the decade after the Great War when the world had been made safe for peace, hut it was then that the most spectacular fall in the birth rate occurred. Unemployment is nothing new, but there has never before been so much provision to meet it. Living cond. lions generally, whatever their defects, are better than they have eve. been in human history, and in recent years, in particular, have reached n high level. All these things, lliere- (•„,,,, are not reasons for the dwindling' birth rate, but merely excuses, and it is necessary ot seek further fOI . t he real explanation. The truth lies in the simple fact that families have become unfashionable and un popular. Human nature has changed so that home life has little pari in i and cannot compete with the many rival attractions of the present age, and this means that the only remedy for the present position, the only salvation for the British race, is !. return to more simple and less artificial conditions where the family and the, home will be the chief things instead of the least, and where families will lie regarded with pride and ns assets instead of with derision und as inabilities.