PREDICTING 'QUAKES

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LXII, Issue 18759, 16 July 1935, Page 13

PREDICTING 'QUAKES

AN EXPERT'S COMMENT THEORIES NOT ACCEPTED (Pot Press Association.) • ■ • DANNKVI EKE,. this day. j la ‘connection with"'the cabled; rejiort of oaiiliquake predictions by Mr. Rdubeij Greenspan, a. young American teacher of mathematics and navigation, and in Ini spare time a geophysicist, and scismolo gist, Dr. Lyndon Hastings, a Danncj virke authority on seismology, remarked that there,’ were .so ' liiAny earthquakes every day, that a-general prediction hail a 99 per cent; chance of being proved correct: Earthquakes throughout tin} world last year numbered .several thousands. , . i “It is noticeable,” said Dr. Bastings; “that,Mr, Greenspan does not predict life intensity of earthquakes/, so. f;u* as may’ be gathered from tho cabled message.’ Minor shocks were frcrjiieul'almost every) where, and to s’a'v merely 'that an earth: quake woilld occur in ’a' ttAiain' place oh a’ eerlaiif'date was' a prediction that hat quite as much chance ol being true as ol being false. ... . cloning in Mi v . Grbciispim s incthocl oi forecast, Dr. ihistings said it wa ? probable that' the position ‘of the sun, moon, and planets did at times exercise an influence upon the time of the occur; reuce of an earthquake, but- there were Ho niauy other factors most ol which wete at present unknown, that the chances of reliable prediction solely on the basis stated were extremely improbable. Mr. Greenspan .was unknown in the scientific world. Some time ago, a number of predict tions on a similar basis lutd been made by two New Zealanders, said Dr. Bastings. Airy de Montalk; of- Wellington, had published in nil’ American seismoi logical journal a rejoinder showing that most' of the predictions ■ were very inaccurate in both time aild place. The men had missed more than they had predicted, which illustrated the futility of predicting an occasional earthquake. Dr. Bastings said it. was inadvisable to create scares by. publishing in the popular press, earthquake forecasts based on evidence, that-,.certainly. lliul not l)een accepted by the scientific .world.