POLITICAL FUTURE

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LIV, Issue 16808, 22 November 1928, Page 7

POLITICAL FUTURE

EARLY SESSION LIKELY \ : ' ■' ■ ... DISSpLUTION NOT CONSIDERED REFQJIM PARTY'S INTENTIONS (Special to the Herald.) j | /: WELLINGTON, this day. ■ < The political situation is rapidly clearing, and,, Mr. Coates' definite pl&ns are expected to be. announced, tip-night. ■! Opinion seems to be settling down to the belief that it is possible,to get the necessary formalities completed, and give fair noticetb'fliembers, that Parliament should before.Christmas! •The Premier's attitude is evidently that of frankly accepting the electoralverdict, though there are. different opinions on the method he should follow in .officially recognising it. Several of the w Prime Minister's colleagues favor an early resignation. . They see no advantage in waiting for Parlia-, meat, and. a.no-confidence motion destined inevitably to' be carried after a de'bate in. which the Government's sins of- omission and commission will be explained at great length, and with a vjgor reminiscent of recent platform efforts.. . •

A section pf Mr'.'!Coates' advisers holds :a different opinion; contending that constitutional precedent demands a decision from Parliament itself by way'of a no'confidence motion, in which the. United Party will be associatedwith Labor. > ■' i [ •;'"'.".

lAs the former Opposition, now relegated to' third"' place,'*it >: i§ keeping well out of the discussions. Mr. H. E. Holland has no intention of leaving his constituency unless required to attend an early session, and he is not calling his party together to discuss affairs. U v " TAKING THE COUNT'' A significant feature of. the United Party conference, to be held to-night, ia the expected attendance, of the Independents, Messrs H. Atmore, C. A. Wilkinson, .H. M. . Rushworth, J. Hogan, and W. J. Poison. They are definitely oppositionists, but not necessarily United Party men, though they may"be classed as sympathisers. ; As for the future, few with any knowledge of Parliamentary atmosphere can be found to subscribe to the idea that the new Parliament is destined to be short-lived. Mr. Coates is "taking the count" a 3 he would himself phrase it, and he will be no party to manoeuvres with the object of discounting the result. ', If a short session is held, and Sir Joseph. Wflrd becomes Prime Minister before Christmas, there is hardly likely to be any objection from the Reform Party to give him ample time to prepare his plans for a session opening about the uaual date in June, nor is it likely that the new Government will be prevented from bringing in its programme and carrying along for the 1 normal course of a triennial Parliament. It is anticipated that a Reform caucus will be called early next week. The Dominion, which is usually the best-informed journal on Government matters, and which hitherto has been strikingly non-committal as to the future policy of the Reform Party, now' makes a iefinite suggestion that parliament will be called together as soon as possible, and that Sir Joseph Ward-will be called-upon to form a Ministry: K.. ; - . : "Advice has been showered on Mr.. Coates from all quarters, and the most aetive and least disinterested has been "th'at tendered by- the United Party audits supporters/".' the Dominion says. ,' "The haste with which this minority party has rushed in' to tell Mr. Coates to rush out suggests a loss of balance and lack of self-restraint which; in the circumstances, is not particularly edifying. There can be no doubt as to the course Mr. Coates has in mind.. He has stated that he will 'play the .game,' and that means that he will take the constitutional ,course and afford Parliament the earliest possible opportunity of expressing its will. There will be no attempt to shirk the issue or delay the outcome.

, UNITED IN MINORITY - "With the United Party and the Labor-Socialist Party in combination against them it can be taken for granted that the Government will oe defeated. Mr. 1 Coates presumably will then recommend that Sir Joseph ' Ward be sent for and His Excellency will ask Sir Joseph Ward to form a Ministry. So far there is a plain coursp to be followed. Sir Joseph Ward then, however, will have to face a'Situation: which at present his newspaper supporters and others find it desirable to ignore. At the best any Government which Sir Joseph Ward can form out of his present following and the Independent members who he claim* are pledged to him, must be in a minoritv. What is he going to do? Who is he going to bargain with to hold office! ■,'.''.,, »« •"Much" has been said by the press which supports' the United Party on the impropriety of any attempt by the Eeform Party to retain office with a minority in Parliament. Why should the United Party be differently treated! There would be no "more justification for Sir Joseph Ward attempting to retain office with a minority party in Parliament than -there would be for Mr. Coates to do so. "It is true,- no doubt, that Sir Joseph Ward may attempt to strike a bargain < with • the' . Labor-Socialist Party. In this he has an advantage over Mr. Coates, who has placed his position )n opposition to. the LaborSoeialist Party beyon ! d any possibility of compromise. The spectacle, however, of the United Party office and subject to the dictation 7 of Mr. Holland- is not one that would commend respectful consideration.- ;