Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY. AUG. 11, 1921 TRADE PROSPECTS.

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume XLVII, Issue 15595, 11 August 1921, Page 2

Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, THURSDAY. AUG. 11, 1921 TRADE PROSPECTS.

The silver lining to the cloud of de pression which everyone hns been looking for is hot yet very apparent; nevertheless there are*gl'OiJtids for lrepefiilness regarding ihe trade situation in New Zealand. First- of these is tho fact (hat the balance of trade is now in favor of the Dominion, the value of the exports, month by month, being substantially hi excess of the value of imports. The excess of imports which started in -May, 1920, and ran to such alarming dimensions in the latter half of that year, being 135 millions above* the export figures for the half-yearly period, was ell'eclively stayed by the end of the first quarter of the present year, 'and in April there dTmc the turn of the tide 1 with exporlr; once more in the ascendant. ' For the three months, April, May, and •Tune, exports were in the lend to the. tune of £1,475,923, so that- if this advantage is maintained the trade situation should gradually improve and iinnncial conditions show a consequent relaxation. The most hopeful feature about 'lhe outlook is ihe position as regards dairy produce. A feu- weeks ago "itwas thought thai Ihe dairy industry was going to sustain a severe set-back, its our rheose»was selling on the London market at 95s to ICCs per' cwl., and juices for Ihe new season were expected to'open at about 8d to 9d per lb f.o.b. for cheese, and Is 9d per 1» for butter. 'lbis would have' meant- a serious curtailment ol the revenue of the Dominion. Since then, however. Ihe severe drought in the Northern .Hemisphere has completely (hanged the whole outlook' for the. dairy trade, and it now is apparent . I lint, .Vow Zealand is going to secure exceptionally good prices lor butler and cheese, greater (ban in any pro-war season, greater than at any period dining I lie war, and second only 10 the abnor-mal'-and unprecedented prices ruling, last year, finder is now Quoted at from Is Ild h> ?;; per. lb. and cheese at, lid to Hid per lb f.0.b., end in addition to this il i$ expected that Hie yield will exceed even, last year's record by fully lfi • per cent. -The number of milking cows was shown in the' latest, statistics 10 be .100,000 in advance of the number last year, an increase of 11 per cent.; and it is quite, certain \l hat with dairying so remunerative as.it is a further extension may be looked for. li was pointed 0111. by Mr. J. T. Marl in, chairman of Ihe Wellington Chamber of ; Cbrri J mo.'oe, last, week, that dairying is now Vow Zealand's premier Industry, the latest figures, showing" wool exports £13,500,000; meal, exports £14.C00,000, arid cheese and butler £16,750,000. .Mr. Martin said: "I believe Ihe potentialilies of dairying in this country are simply enormous, and expect lo see in ; fiiiiP many of our better-class station , properties, which are suitable for'dairy- : ing and which are now carrying sheep, cut up into small dairy holdings. The Northern Hemisphere needs our dairy produce; we supply the Mother Country at the very period of Hie year her 1 own cows are,, dry,, and while Canada's ! exports to England are decreasing, owing to the heavy demand on her refrom .her nearer neighbors—the ; United Slates of America—our exports ,to England are continually increasing." Tho speaker was alsoMiopeful as regards the prospects of the frozen lamb trade. He, remarked that "despite the fact that England is able to absorb the whole ot our exports of lamb from New Zealand, and give lijjs;h prices for same,, -We 'are also going to have another market in the United Slates, notwithstanding the fact that America has- placed nn embargo, which, I hope, is only temporary, of two cents per lb on our lamb." It is- in- regard to the prospects of wool, however, that, principal interest centre? in a great pastoral district such as this, and the-..first gleam of hope comes from Mr. Massey's sanguine statements after his visit to Bradford. He looks for a decided improvement in prices within six months, and gives substantial reasons why. There, can be no doubt whatever that the statistical position of (he wool trade is altogether in favor of the buyers, inasmuch as the flocks of the world are not nearly sufficient to provide the world's normal requirements.' But the difficulty is in getting back to normal in trade. Despite adverse exchanges, despite labor troubles and other upheavals, the Continental derhand is

steadily growing, and it is upon this that we must very largely rely.for the clearing away of accumulated stock's.— that mountain of wool which has been blocking the satisfactory righting of the market and causing . unprecedented Josses'to our wool growers. Mr Massey tells us that, the Continental market's are opening and that speculators are

already at. work in anticipation of an early -rise in prices. This confirms the information given by our Bradford wool correspondent in a letter, dated .lime 15, received to-day, in which he sfates that "the operations of German firms are cxeYiing a most decided influence, for good upon crossbred wool. There it* real cause for satisfacl ion at the.quantities which are being cleared, proving beyond doubt (hat, a real haying' interest exists at a market price." Signs of revival of foreign demand were also shown at (he recent Sydney sales. The Sydney Daily Telegraph of duly 15. reporting an improved market, said : "The secret of the changed conditions lies in the development of the Continental demand. This demand is assuredly, gathering strength every month',' and is to-day showing unmistakable signs of ' sion. Japan a long time had the. field to itself; now there is equally keen hnying on French and German account: The main feature about the position*, is that the demand generally is expanding. French and German buyers are operating on a bigger scale than hitherto,'and Ihe keynote of the whole position is the levolopmont of Ibis Continental demand. Fortunately i( seems to he gaining strength steadily, and fortunately also it is keenest, on the faulty sorts which tavo hithertoi been so difficult to move. Phe Yorkshire section has shown considerably more activity than previously, tnd this is no doubt the effect of the settlement' of the coal strike and the mpvoved industrial outlook." Tlie de nand which is noted above has mainly •entree! round the finer classes of wool; )Ut it was reported a few days ago that here is evidence of a probable swing>ver to the coarser -fabrics, in which ■aso crossbred wool may come into letter favor. The main thing,, however. s that there are better trade prospects )oth in England and on the Continent, tnd that this must reflect itself on the oalisation of our produce. There are nnny who believe that Britain, ■ once rage adjustments . have been' effected,. rill make a very vapid trade recovery, n which case the demand not. only for t'ool, but. for meat and tallow, and eafher, in fact everything that this ountry can produce, would be good, nd the wave of depYession would quickly ass away.