Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING. GISBORNE. TUESDAY, JULY 3, 1917. THE OUTLOOK.

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume XLIV, Issue 14340, 3 July 1917, Page 4

Poverty Bay Herald. PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING. GISBORNE. TUESDAY, JULY 3, 1917. THE OUTLOOK.

The 1 statement cabled yesterday that ; French and British publicists have aban- ! . doned hopes of peace m 1917, and that all Europe is preparing for another and the severest, winter, of war, may cause discouragement to the faint hearted, but ' 'anyojiie who- thoughtfully reviews the! situation as it is .to-day and compares it with that of one year, two years or three years ago cannot but feel the glow of optimism.;' There may be hard times and" bitter fighting before us but surely the news, js better to-day than it .has. been at any time since the war started. \ An international banker who recently • returned ■to New York from London ! expressed! himself thus -m an i interview with; thej Wall Street Journal:! "I am well satisfied with my study of ! the situation abroad that there is only one quest'ioii: to-day m the minds of those who are directing the war for the Allies atid> that is, not n question of avlio ' wins, but a question solely of the time m which the Allies will win. It is realised by 'the English, military authorities that tho brunt of the offensive must hereafter be Avith the English." That-. is' a position that has fou gome time been recognised. Though Mr Kennedy Jones, the Director-General m Food Economy, m issuing his appeal the other day ' against bread waste, tfhich he declared to be' bullet Avaste, asserted that m view of the news from the front he believed > that by September Aye should haA'e compelled the Kaiser to throw up Ijio-. sponge ; though the information given members at the recent secret session of. the House of Commons is said to have ' been most , encouraging, the official re- . pponsible lieads are making no miscalculations and for 'very good reasons arc showing restraint of optimism m their public utterances. TU^y^ realise that on Brtish shoulders for tho fateful period immediately ahead 1 rest the fortunes of civilisation and that it is necessary for the nation to put its' strongest and most united effort into the work of winning victory. France held on with great sacrifice till Britain was ready, and Britain must hold on with readiness to sacrifice, if need be, till America is ready. "This war," said Lory Derby m lan interview for American consumption four Aveeks ago, "will not be over until 3 the full weight of America has been thrown into the scales; not until

AiiKTica. bf^ins making war as (hough .■•he »iloii(,' faced CJeiniany will there bo a possibility of predicting when the end will come. The bigger the blow America is able to deliver — the sooner she delivers—the quicker will the war end and , the new order of things be assured." i That is the official view and it is given with the object of .stimulating AngloSaxon organisation for victory. But lime are reasons which make' us think that m spite of the conservative estimates uf. Cabinet. Ministers .-and publicists surprises- —joyous surprises — may be m store. In the first place there are three mouths of fine weather yet to.vufi. We have the pulverising power to do much m that three months. "I can confirm all that has been reported,-" said the' banker previously quoted, "as to the j size of; the English war machine. No' two nations m the world to-day have the gun uncl shell -power that England pos-* st'sses. If I could tell you the number of shells England can throw on the j Western front- m comparison with Germany the figures would look ridiculous. Toward the end of 1914 the French were throwing shells at the rate of BO,COO aday; The Germans were answering with 120,030 a <lay— a. total of 200,000 shells. .At the Battle of Ypres the . English threw BCO.OOO shells m two hours. England is now ready to throw several million shells a day and keep it up to the end." This information is confirmed by General Robertson, who said on May 12: "During the last six weeks we ha,ve expended' no leas than 2CO.KXX) tons of munitions m France alone," and by' a statement of the Prime Minister that after the enormous expenditure of shells at Arras and Vimy Ridge we had actual- j ly more shells m stock behind the lines than, at the outset of the battle, 'so -great is our production and ability to traits- j -port it. With regard to the submarine] menaoe, even as late at last Friday Mr j Lloyd George was optimistic, telling us | that the submarine scare will go 'the. way of the Zeppelin scare. Perhaps the best cause for confidence lies m. the known facts regarding the weakened enemy morale. "Dry rot seems to have set. m amongst the German troops," writes one correspondent from the battlefield. "The batches of prisoners m the concentration cages have for the. most part behaved like an undisciplined; :rabble m their disregard for theiiv own -officers and noncommissioned officers. One has grown so accustomed to the servile submission of German prisoners to the word of i command of their non-commissioned { officers who are called upon to help our guards m the -maintenance of discipline, that the change seeirts ominous of a new condition of mind m the German Army. Both officers and non-commissioned officers freely complain that the chief cause of the disaster : which has overtaken them is the -difficulty-of.control-ling their men. Seeing how ma.ny merii. lads of the Bavarian 1918 class there are m the ranks of the prisoners this does not seem very surprising." The rations of German troops m the, field, and. their clothes, are barely sufficient to keep them m good /condition. Letters found recently indicate- that" irom these scanty rations j soldiers here and there have been sending some food home to their families. One of the indst demoralising experiences to which the German m. the field is now. subjected is the bombing of the trains m which he travels, and the places m which his Test < billets are located. As ,-onr aerial supremacy becomes move secure the situation 'in which this nerve-racking form of warfare is carried on is extended. The bombs cause wide-spread destruction; Germany is short of metal ; she. is unable to meet our great gun fire with equal strength of artillery. She is short of food to. the point of starvation. In her big cities trouble is constant; there is rioting and firing on th© people. "Germany," says Horatio Bottomley, "is m want and desperation; Her sohijers are fighting m massed-, array ; they ; are being sacrificed with reckless , disregard for human life. Our losses are hheavy —mournfully-heavyy v -heavy — but they are slight compared with' the awful toll of German dead. Germany cannot hold out— we can." Then there is the financial aspect. Germany is near bankruptcy. Her mark As debased 'and is only accepted m neutral countries at a ruinous rate of exchange. She is .now exporting gold because her paper .will not be ; accepted.-- -.- Great Britain's 1 fiscal position is> strong. "Even- if all >the other members. of the Entente Alliancei were bankrupt, Britain could still carry on the war single-handed from a financial point of view," was a statement Sir Joseph Ward made the other, day. "Britain is -wealthier --than all the other belligerents put together, no matter on what ,side they are fighting." These are a few of the reasons that make for.confidence and emboldeni us to say that while prudence on the part of our statesmen and, publicists suggests preparing for another winter campaign, ► the situation is such that any day it may take a favorable turn and bring to ; us all the most pleasant sux-prises.