The Otago Witness. (WEDNESDAY, JULY 5, 1916.) THE WEEK.

Otago Witness, Issue 3251, 5 July 1916, Page 47

The Otago Witness.

(WEDNESDAY, JULY 5, 1916.) THE WEEK.

WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED THE SOUTHERN MEROURI".

“Kunquam allutl natura, allud sapientia diiife.** —Juvenal. “Good nature and good sense must ever join."— Pope. “ The men leapt from the trenches with a vigour and earnestness worthy of the best traditions of the army. ‘Fed up’ with the trenches they welcomed a fight at close quarters. The Germans realised that they were 'up against it.’ and fought grimly inch by inch.” Thus vividly does the correspondent of the Morning Post describe the first stages of the offensive movement initiated by the allied French and British armies on the Western front, and which is proceeding as we write with an intensity of artillery fixe and a fierceness of hand to hand fighting which may com tinue for weeks, if not indeed for monthsi, The first feeling is one of congratulation that after months of weary waiting and patient preparation, all the while acting on the defensive, and contenting themselves with holding the lines and repelling the enemy’s assaults, it has at last been found practicable and deemed advisable for the allied armies in the West to launch an offensive. As to the outcome of tliis important movement, it is too early vet fo speak j but there are good grounds for confidence. The essential difference between the German tactics and those adopted by the Allies Is seen in the fact that while in the repeated and desperate attack upon Verdun the enemy concentrated Ins most powerful artillery and massed his men in close formation of an exceedingly narrow front, General Jolfre has ordered an assault along a 25-mile front, with attacking parties in open order. That a military feat of such magnitude should be possible would seem to prove a considerable preponderance in artillery and a superiority in the troops’ engaged. It will probably, however, be found that the fighting now proceeding has as its object a thorough testing qf the enemy’s line, and that when a wealj: spot -which offers a decided tactical advantage has been discovered, a general assault will be ordered. Along this extended front the tide of battle may be expected to ebb and flow during tho dreadful days- of July; there wants but another four weeks to the second anniversary of the beginning of the war, and doubtless the Allies will strain every nerve to establish the fact of a decided victory ere August 4, 1916. is reached and passed. Writing in the Observer at the end of May, Mr J. L. Garvin said of the men under the command of Sir Douglas Haig: “ In numbers, experience, and every kind of military capacity they are now a magnificent army, . such as no human being at home or abroad before the war ever imagined that the British. Empire could place on the Continent. Theft* reserves are very large. In equipment they are rising steadily to a standard at all points which will he second to none in the world. Tho enemy has been testing our whole line, section by section, down the 80 miles from the Yser to the Somme, and wc have the right to think that lie has nowhere found it weakEvery day work as between the British army and the Germans is carried on by rival artillery duels, raids, and mining. And every day feats of daring and endurance that would have stood out as glorious in any previous war, pass with little remark, and remain almost nameless.” The cost of this “everyday work” is seen in the statement that the British casualties in June were 1740 officers and 29,761 men, as compared with 1623 officers and 27,403 men in May. Now that fighting has recommenced in real earnest, the toll will be much heavier. An indication, of this has been seen in London in the special trains conveying the wounded, which., arriving in Charing Cross Sfation, have blocked the traffic. These are tense days, when the news from the front will be eagerlv awaited and the daily casualty list feverishly scanned. And all the while the hope is lying latent in every British heart that the terrible artillery fire, which since the first day of July has been directed from British and French guns upon the German trenches, may prove the beginning of the end —and that the end may he a permanent peace. .

The Western Offensive.

Some idea of how far or how near the end of the war may be must shortly be revealed ill Germany’s answer to the battering-ram ‘assaults to which her armies upon all the fronts ai’O now being subjected. Military experts are watching to see whether there are signs that the German General Staff has lo t its power of initiative; since if Germany is reduced henceforth to a purely

Germany's Strategy.

defensive policy, 11;o end of the war is within sight no matter how desperate that defence may be. Mr J. L. Garvin put the position plainly and clearly when he said six weeks ago, that the strategical in vet rv in Europe was still unsolved, and he added with force; ‘Tor every si in; out of war the interest deepens and becomes absorbing. The present campaign _ means everything for the Central- Empires or their partners. They must try this year to break one of tbc Entente Powers or wait to be broken next year by the full combined we : ght of the Allies. There is no real hope in the defensive, however ably planned and however well masked by local aggression. The Central Empires must still attack with intent to break one or orher of their enemies, or must subnet in the last stage of the war to the enormous pressure all round of the Allies maximum strength. Nothing then could save Germany, much less Austria and Turkey, unless the war direction of the Grand Alliance as a whole proved grossly remits or signally stupid. Contingencies which after the instruction of events we have now every right to exclude.” Mr Garvin proceeds to point out that for the enemy everything depends upon the present preparation, early development, and complete success of another great offensive measure by the Central Empires in some decisive direction. “All German war teaching,” insists Mr Garvin, “saturated with the spirit of initiative and enterprise, recognises that these qualities must always be employed to the very jast. There is uo safety in plaving for safety. When your relative resources begin to diminish you must economise effort at some point, but not at all. You must make up in more concentrated boldness what you lo e in numbers.” The failure of the German General Staff to make any effective reply to the Russian and Italian successive advances, and the absence of any counterstroke to the Allies’ diplomacy in' the ZEgean, almost entitled us to be sanguine, unless indeed the German comparative quietude is the prelude to a hurricane. It is difficult, however, to see in which direction the German hurricane is likely to break forth; the -present indications are that Germany, Austria, and Turkey have all their work cut out to reply to the hurricanes now being launched against them upon all the fronts by the confident, well-equipped, and plentifully munitioned armies of the Allies. Major Moraht, generally recognised as one Of the foremost German military exports, writing in the Berliner Tageblatt, is very near the truth when he says, “All the belligerents have reached a critical stage. Our antagonists, like the Germans, have reached the culminating point of their exertions.” After paying a tribute to the power and resources of the Allies and to the system and caution of Great Britain, he adniits that the strength of their adversaries will render the “ultimate victory” of Germany “difficult.” Major Moraht concludes with the significant declaration: “We cannot get a step nearer to peace without first having a settlement of accounts with the British.” And this is exactly what Germany is going to have, although hardly in the manner intended by the German major. Apparently the German General Staff intended to effect a settlement with France preliminary to a settlement with Great Britain; hence the prolonged but futde asianlt upon Verdun. German strategy has been at fault at several important points during the progress of the war; but it would almost seem that Verdun spells a fatal strategic blunder. If this he so for Germany, then Verdun spells for France a decisive victory, and the turning of the tide of war. “ The battle of Verdun,” says Mr Garvin, “lias been one of the greatest of French victories, and it has been the crowning moral glory of France in its vindication of our neighbours’ fundamental military ability and tenacity of soul as well as of their fighting heroism and resource.” It is beginning to stand out clearly and plainly that the Germans risked everything upon their plan of opening a road to Paris in February last, and that their clogged persistence and the French glorious resistance must mean the victory of the Allies and the downfall of the Central Empires. For with the German failure at Verdun there is no sign of a German offensive at any other point, save the counterstrokes provoked by the allied attacks. It has been pointed out that unless Turkey is saved this year she is hopelessly doomed, and that her downfall must mean the abandonment bv Germany of the Berlin-Bagclad line, a project at which Germany has been continually labouring for the past 20 years. At one time it seemed possible that Germany might subordinate everything else to an attempt at any cost to drive back the Grand 1 Duke, and to repeat among the Armenian mountains the Carpathian exploit of May of last year. But the Grand Duke is steadily advancing, and slowly but surely blazing the trail which eventually will lead the Russian army into Constantinople. Turning in another direction, it has been freely prophesied in the German and Austrian newspapers that Italy’s fate was to be settled this year, and the recent Austrian successes pointed in that direction. Suddenly and dramatically Italy has made a wonderful recovery, and in alrao-t as many days has snatched from Austria the hardly won spoils of long, laborious, and bloody months. Poor as appear Germany’s prospects in Asia, against Italy, and in the Western front, it is when opposed to the advancing might of Russia that she seems most hopeless of all. “We cannot,” writes Mr Garvin in his concluding paragraphs, and his words read well in the light of the latest news, “yet allow ourselves to be sanguine nor assume that wo have seen the last of the enemy’s formidable surprises. But we repeat also that if the Russian main front as it stands Js still held by midsummer, and if wo do pur duty by the Grand Duke with the amphibious forces we now possess--

A Survey of the Situation.

decisive if we only know how to u«e them, and if we have war plans worthy of our strength—nil else shall be added unto us and our Allies."

The one unsatisfactory spot in the British Empire at the present time is Ireland, likened to a seething pot, and which

a Seething Pot.

ever remains true to its name. It had been hoped that at ieast one good result would come out of the unhappy Dublin rising—and of which the t ial of and sentence passed upon Sir Roger Casement is a tragic aftermath —■ viz., Iho satisfactory and permanent settlement of the exceedingly troublesome Home Rule question. So deep animpression has been made upon Nationalists and Ulstermen alike by the revelations of that rising that the miracle has happened of Sir "lidward Carson and Mr Redmond working together to promote a settlement which, under "Mr Lloyd George's skilful guidance, had promise of successful issue. The temporary exclusion of Ulster a compromise concerning the counties wherein the rival e'.em mts were equally represented was the basis of the suggested settlement; but another and more serious difficulty has arisen. It is alleged that Mr Redmond's warm and patriotic eponsal of the cause of Great Britain has estranged from him that considerable section of the South of Ireland people who temperamentally and traditionally are always "agin the Government." It is estimated that Home Rule for the South of Ireland would therefore mean the deposition of the Redmonrlites and the virtual parsing of the Government into the hands of the Sinn Fein, a possible contine;ency which has resulted in the th'eatened resignation of some of the Unionist members of the Cabinet. It will l;e a serious blow to the hopes which have been entertained of a satisfactory settlement should this new difficulty prove insuperable, and Mr Lloyd George's official statement on the subject will be awaited with interest.