THE GERMAN ELECTIONS

Otago Witness, Issue 3018, 17 January 1912, Page 29

THE GERMAN ELECTIONS

RESULTS OF FIRST BALLOTS. SOCIALISTS MAKING HEADWAY. BERLIN, January 2. The Socialist party is nightly holding meetings, which are attended by thousands of persons. The electors generally are apathetic, but interest is increasing with a view to the polling, which takes place on the 12th inst. The second ballots have been fixed for January 25. January 3. A Government election manifesto emphasises the need of'thd Reichstag to be ready to prolong the present economic, fiscal, and social policy, to maintain the army and fleet permanently at the highest point of efficiency, and to fill gaps in the armaments. Therefore the final defeat of the Socialists, 'whose existence imperils the national unity, is a question of vital interest. January 4. There is much comment over the Government confining itself to advising the electors to vote against the Socialists. The results of the first ballots are eagerly awaited. Bargaining by the Government with the various groups will thereafter begin. January 6. The Pan-German and Conservative papers are conducting a violent electioneering crusade against Britain*, alleging that she intended to attack the German fleet without declaring war on July 24, August 19, and September 18. The papers add that the English peril is the watchword of the Government's supporters. General Liebert, writing in the Berlin Post, urges the seizure of Portuguese Africa, and advocates the annihilation of the Socialist party, thereby preventing trem from further hampering Germany's aspirations. Many merchants and manufacturers are for the first time entering into active politics. They have instituted a Hansa League for combating the farmers' alliances which have hitherto ruled Imperial politics. The Frankfurter Zeitung and other Liberal newspapers demand a responsible . Parliament, and say that, however the • elections result, the present controllers of Germany can snap their fingers at the results. January 8. An official manifesto in the North German Gaz?tte states that the Government is seeking to exclude Socialists from the next Reichstag, and to clear the way for increased naval and military legislation. It concludes by stating that "no man who is solicitous of the future of the Fatherland can vote for a Socialist." January 10. There are 1428 candidates for 397 seats at the ceneral elections. The Socialists are contesting every seat.

January 13. The polling is heavy. The Socialists have held five seats. Berlin expects a second ballot, and to wrest the sixth from the Radicals. Herr Bebel (Leader of the Socialists), Ledebour, Zudeil, David, Vollmar, and Dr Frank were triumphantly re-elected. Bervnin wrested Breslau West from the Radicals. The latter lost Stettin, the town of Kochigeberg, and the town of Zittan Bremen to the Socialists. The other Socialist victories were Magdeburg, Bandow, and Holzlinden. The first division of Brunswick Centre lost Riechenbach and Neerodo to the Socialists. The National Liberals lost Kirchberg, Dobeln, and Aundberg divisions of Saxony, and Isslangen, Darmstadt West, and Havelland to the Socialists. The latter have already regained one-third of the looses of 1907. Altogether there are 19 gtiins and two losses. All the three seats of Hamburg were retained. Forty-nine of the Centre party, 45 Socialists, nine Conservatives, eight Poles, two of the Imperial party, and one National Liberal are definitely elected.

January 14. The following are the latest returns of the first ballots : Centre 85 Socialists 66 Conservatives 35 Poles and Danes 16 National Liberals 6 Total 208 There will be 189 second ballots, and of these- the Socialists are interested in 117 and the Radicals in 53. The Socialists hope to -win 40 of the remaining seats. They claim they have gained so far 57,000 votes on the last elections. In Berlin they increased their vote, and the provinces gave them 32 per cent, more than in 1907. Their successes are largely at the expense of the Radicals and National Liberals. Much now depends on the bargains that will be made for mutual support in the second ballots. The Roman Catholic Centre party is so far unshaken. LONDON, January 14. Mr J. Ramsay Macdonald. M.P., has telegraphed to the German Socialist party the congratulations of the British Labour party on its success. The German Government Statisticians (wrote a correspondent of the Standard recently) have been busy for some rime p;ist in calculating the probable extent of the increase of the aggregate Socialist poll and the number of seats in the' Reichstag which will be gained by the Socialist party

at the next general election. The necessity of these investigations was suggested by a series of bye-elections in which the Socialists not only increased to a remarkable degree the number of votos given to their candidates, but also succeeded in capturing constituencies which have never before been represented by members of the party. Alarmed by these indications of a widespread national discontent, the professional statisticians of the Government were ordered to calculate as nearly as possible the presumptive extent of this year's Socialist gains. It is accepted as a certainty that the aggregate Socialist poll will take another leap forward in 1912, just as it has increased at every general election during the last 30 years. At the last general election in 1907 Socialist candidates polled 28 per cent, of all the votos cast throughout the country, and there is a very general expectation that their percentage at this year's electoral contest will amount to 40 per cent. The • reports of the Government Statisticians have been alarming in the extreme, and the Imperial Chancellor, Dr von Bethmann-Hollweg, now reckons with the probability that the Socialist party in the Reichstag to be elected this year will number 140, or even 150, Deputies. It must be remembered that the Reichstag is composed of 397 Deputies, so that if there wore 140 or 150 Socialist Deputies they would be within measurable distanco of commanding an absolute majority of the Imperial Legislature. Possibly by combining with the Radicals and one", or two smaller groups of malcontent politicians, such as the Polish Nationalists, they might command a majority. If the Radicals were not sufficiently numerous to enable the formation of this combined opposition, . the Roman Catholic Centre party would possess the balance of power, and would dominate the situation by threatening to form a coalition with the Socialists unless its own demands were fullllk>d. In that case Germany, with a population two-thirds Protestant, would be entirely under the control cf an ultra-montane Roman Catholic party. Dr von Bethmann-Hollweg has been holding a series of conferences with leading politicians of different parties and groups, and also with leading editors, with a view to preventing the anticipated victory of the Socialists. Party loaders and politicians of tho Conservative and Moderate groups have been summoned to him to confer on ways and of stemming the Socialist tide. Leading newspaper writers have been exhorted by tho Imperial Chancellor to use all their public influence to bring about a combination of all other parties and groups against the Socialists, so as to prevent tho capture of so many parliamentary seats by Socialist followers.