THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2950, 28 September 1910, Page 21

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Friday. The mail this week brings to hand the usual preliminary estimates formeo.' by " Beerbohm" as to the probable out-turn of the world's wheat crops. And in the figures thus made available on this side of the world is found an explanation to a very large extent of the undoubted firmness which has characterised the Home and European position for the last two months, when, in the ordinary course of events, a weakness would have been making itself manifest. These- figures are carefully prepared, and though, of course, subject to possibilities of error, hay© behind them the reputation of many successful ventures made in the past. When, therefore, the estimate reveals an anticipated shortage of no less than 19 million, quarters on last year's crop it is at once seen that the coming season will probably witness the continuance of fair prices; indeed', it is suggested that for at least another 12 months the price of wheat will be maintained at a sound and substantial level. The trend of the market since the publication in the Old Land of this estimate confirms the view that prices will be good, and the contracts now being entered into between Australian centres and Eugland on the basis of 37s per quarter for JanuaryFebruary shipment come as further corroboration of this view. The latest issue of Beerbohm to hand, published in London early last month, is as follows: —"The wheat market, under the influence of unfavourable crop report? from France, and a strong a'emand from that country, has been quite firm, and prices show an improvement of 6d to Is for most descriptions, thus practically recovering the decline of the previous week. The continued unsettled weather in France has further damaged the crop and delayed the harvest. The estimates of the probable yield have been still further reduced, and now range from about 33 to 37 million quarters. It is quite possible that the more pessimistic figures are not justified at present, although, if the weather keeps bad much longer, such may finally prove to be the ease. Meantime France has been a strong buyer this week, ana' is reported to have taken' some 50,000 tons during the past two or three days, and a much larger quantity during the past few weeks, including large quantities of Danubian wheat. The Washington Bureau report, giving the condition of the American wheat crop on August 1, was more favourable than generally expected, especially so far as spring wheat is concerned. The total yield of winter and spring wheat, indics/ed by the figures cabled over, works out at about 658 million bushels, against 737 million- bushels last year, or a decrease of about 80 million bushels. From this loss of 80 million bushels must be deducted the increaseo." reserves, visible and invisible, carried forward on July 1, compared with last year, and which, if the official estimates of last year's crop were correct, must have amounted to 40 or 50 million 'bushels, reducing the total deficit of available wheat to- about 40 million bushels. The publication of the bureau report allows of a preliminary and rough estimate being made of the probable world's wheat crop, official figures being used where possible. So far as Russia and France are concerned, it is very probable that no reliable official estimates will be published until the early part of next year. With regard to .Ina'ia, as the greater part of the surplus of the last crop is exported in the present season, the figures for that crop are ieiven. Ausfrahyna is estimated at about 10 per cent, less than last year, agricultural conditions for the last crop having been exceedingly favourable. The figures for Argentina are based on the yearly average of the three years, 19061903, ignorinsr last year's very bad crop. The Canadian quantity is 'based on commercial and private estimates. Most of the advices recently received from Russia state that the crop is now not expected to exceed an average, which, ignoring last year's extraordinary crop, is about 73 million quarters. " A preliminary estimate of the world's wheat crop for 1910 gives a total for Europe of 234,500,000 quarters, as against 252,300,000 nuurters from the same source last voar. The total out of Europe is 201.600 000 quarters, as compared with 203.220.000 quarters last year. The grand totals for the last six vears are as follow:—• 1905. 414,735.000 Quarters; 1906, 431,955.000 quarter.-: 1907, 396,775.000 quarters: 1908. 329,065,000 quarters; 1909, 455,520,000 quarters; 1910. 436,500.000 quarters. The. total estimated decrease, compared with last vear's crop, is 19 million quarters —viz., 436.500.0C0 quarters. against 455,520,000 quarters last year, but the total is much larger than in 1903 or 1907. The reserves of old wheat carried forward this year are much larger than in 1909 (when they were very small), probabl) to the extent of fully 15 million quarters, but are not much, if at all, in excess of ordinary years. The I requirements of importing countries this season will not in the aggregate, according to present indications, be much larger than in the past eeason. Against an increase of about seven million quarters for France and Italy there; will be a probable decrease of five to six million quarters in the wants of Austria-Hungary and Germany. Other countries. including the United Kingdom, will probably import in the aggrcljate on the same lines as last year. Against a probable decrease in the exports from Russia of 10 million quarters, and from America and Canada of seven million quarters, a total of 17 million quarters, Roumania and Bulgaria are believed bo be in a position to increase their exports by six million quarters, India by at least two million quarters, Australia by two million quarters, and Argentina by, say, five million quarters, whilst Hungarymay export one to two million quarters in the shape of flour, or a total of about 16 million quarters." The Australian position is revealed by the cablegrams to be still dull and, if anything, weaker than was the case last week. In Sydney 3s lOd is offered, but sellers hold out for 3s lid, with (according to mail advice) very little business passing. Melbourne is in very much the same position, with the same figures mentioned. while Adelaide quotes 3s lOd for old and 3a 7d to 3s 8d for new, delivery in the early part of next year. As will be observed from the subjoined press extracts there is a probability of the two harvests overlapping. There still remains in New

South Wales a considerable surplus of wheat, and if this behindered in its export, it is pointed out, the market will probably drop somewhat. The new season's wheat being sold is bringing fair prices, and it is anticipated that in Sydney portion of it will be available early in November. The Sydney Mail of September 14 writes as follows:—"On Saturday last there were 5,140.000 quarters of wheat afloat on its way 'to Europe, or. say, 40,000,000 bushels. With such largo supplies available near at hand the London market is not going to wait the convenience of far-off supplievs, and as these near-home countries are forwarding their wheat as fast as they can to the market—Russia especially, so as to get as much into money as she can before the ports are frozen, —there does not seem to be much chance of a large appreciation in the value of wheat for some weeks to come. It must bo remembered also that we are exporting as quicklv as we can, and that from now until the new wheat season begins the bulk of our wheat will be carried by steamer, as sailing vessels are too slow. We sent awav from New South Wales last week 706,000 bushqls of wheat, other large steamers are loading, and the railways will be kept busy in the effort to take away as much as possible of the 3,000,000 bushels of surplus wheat which we still have available for export. These things will tend to keep up the local price of wheat to something near London parity for a week or two; but if it happen that something untoward occurs, such a 6 a block of "wool on the railways, to prevent exporters from getting cargoes to the seaboard, in good time, the market will come down. At the present it is, if anything, just a shade above London parity, but the difference is not much, and nothing above a legitimate trade risk. Yesterday wheat was worth up to 3s lid to shippers for large parcels, but not all of them were prepared to pay that price Some of them would not go beyond 3s 10£d, and the London market was cabled as declining." The Town and Country Journal adopts a note somewhat pessimistic. It says: "New South Wales farmers should note the great risk they are running in allowing the two harvests of wheat to overlap. There is nearly six times as much wheat now at the New South Wales railwaystations, as compared with the quantity at this date last year, allowing for the fact that last September the bags were mixed (some being old style, and some the Chapman sacks). Certainly a largo percentage of the grain so stacked belongs to shippers, millers, and speculators; but a good deal is still in growers' possession. Advices from a northern wheat area state that a small quantity of the new wheat may be expected to reach Sydney during the* first week in November. Fair deliveries will be railed during the third week in November." The Melbourne market is thus reviewed on September 17 by the Australasian: " The market has shown an easier tendency in sympathy with the cable news from London, and while supplies offering from the country have not been heavy, they have been sufficient to supply buyers' requirements for the present, especially as millers find the sale of flour a slow one. The supplies available for export from Victoria, after providing for local requirements for the remainder of the season, is a substantial one, and it is to be expected that prices will continue to be regulated by the position of markets abroad. Business has been done at declining prices, and the market close» quiet at 3s lid to 3s Hid. Flour: Business remains quiet, the association quotation for local consumption being £9 10s, delivered." As the season advances it becomes more and anore plain that there will be a considerable carry-over of grain from this season. Much of it will, of course bo damaged, and it is thought that so far as wheat of sound milling quality is concerned finer© will be just about sufficient for requirements. The figures given by the Government are that in the 1909-10 season there were sown 311,000 acres, which, at an average, final yield of 28.24 bushels to the acre, yielded 8,783,098 bushels. Last year there was a less acreage —252.391 to wit—but a much better average of 34.75 bushels to the acre, producing a total of 8,772,790 bushels. The totals were therefore the . c ame —on paper. In the circles of the trade, however, some doubt is expressed as to whether this year's total is veallv so large as if is represented to be. However that may be, it is undoubted that whereas last year there was a very considerable export of about 1.500.000 bushels, there has this year been <~xtx>rted. in roucrh figures, only about 530.000 bushels. Therefore, if the totals of the two seasons may be taken as being aDproximately the same and the consumption stands unaltered, it is obvious that at this date—or, to be strictly accurate, nt the end of August—there remain in the country about ' 1.000,000 bushels of wheat more than was the case last vear. At the same time the greater portion of this is of damaged oualitv. and. as before said, it is estimated that, the total of soiled milling wheat available is not at all likely to exceed the demand. In the meantime, (he market remains very ouiet. Shippers are finding London more difficult to meet. and. further, the end of cheap freights is in sight. Millers are sitting very quietly, and so are farmers. Each side is content to nlay a waiting game, and in the interval practically no business is passing. Prices may he onoted 1 at 3s 9d (nominal) for velvet at north stations, and 3s 7d to 3s Bd. ex store, for red wheats, this being equivalent to 3s 5d and 3.* 6d at country stations. For damaged wheat all prices may bo paid. For offal there is a good demand, and doubt is cast on the statement mad© from Christchuroh that shippers are filling nn wheat snace with bran or pollard for Great Britain The tariff of the Flourniillers' Association for flour and other lines is as follows Flour: Sacks. £9 ss: 100!b bags. £9 lss; 501 b bags. £10; 251 b batrs. £lO ss. Oafmeal. £ll 10s per ton. Pearl barW. £l4 per ton. Bran, £3 15s per ton. Pollard, £5 per ton. In the past week some temnorary activity in onts is reported to have taken nlaoe at Bluff, consequent on the barque Bona loading on a cheap freight for Auckland. This induced some business of an extent limited by her canncity. The whole market has not been affected to anv degree, and the large movement is towards an easiness in nrice. Auckland is taking small lots now, but her demand is not of the extent antici Dated some little time ago, and beyond that there seems little doin<r. At the same time th«re is current a slight rumour that a Dunedin firm has been buving for Home export. If this be true, it seems unlikely that the business will develop to any extent at thin late period of the y°ar. The outturn of the year's crop is placed at 13.526,830 bushels, as ajtaLast

18,906,788 bushels last year. There has been no considerable export this season, whereas last year there was a very extensive movement. There is thus probable remaining- in the Dominion a small surplus. The general expectation now is that it will be difficult to maintain the present level of prices. Very large supplies of onions have arrived from Melbourne, and the market is consequently witnessing keen competition between merchants. As a result of this, lots arc being sold below to-day's landed cost. The price has again advanced in Melboiirne. The local price remains at £7 10s per ton. The potato market has been well supplied during the past week, and some have formed the opinion that easier prices will prevail in the future. In connection with this tuber the Town and Country Journal has the following- paragraph : " Advices from the Clarence state that, owing to want of rain, the- potato crops are nearly at a standstill, and rain soon is essential to prevent a partial failure. The area under crop on that river is 40 per cent lees than last year, and the Clarence will (at best) send very few tubers to Sydney, where the consumption now averages 14.000 bags per week. Potato-growers in Victoria and New South Wales should note that New Zealand is now a big factor in the Australian markets. New Zealand ie buying heavily in Victoria, about 400 tons per week being shipped from Victorian ports to Wellington, N.Z., Port Lyttelton (for Christchurch), Port Chalmers (for Dunedin), etc. This buying by New Zealand., will have a solid effect on the Sydney market' within a week. The occmrrence some years ago of devastating blight in a numbar of the potato fields in New Zealand scared the farmers there, and they minimised this culture. Hence the New Zealand crops this season are already practically sold out." In other lines, eggs have somewhat decreased in supply, and prices have risen temporarily to and lid per dozen. Bacon is also bringing a good price. Current prices are as follow :—^ Chaff. —Prime oaten sheaf, £3 17s 6d to £4; medium to good, £3 12s 6d to £3 17s 6d; inferior. £3 and upwards per ton (ex truck). Straw. —Oaten, 32s 6d to 355; wheaten, 25s per ton. Hay, £2 10s to £2 15s pei ton. Potatoes. —Prime Up-to-Dates, £7 15s to £8; medium to good, £7 10s to £7 15s; inferior, £6 15s and upwards per ton. Onions.—Melbourne (to arrive), £7 10s per ton (rising); Canterbury (in stock; growing). 2s 6d to 4s 6d per cental. Eggs.—Fresh, 10£d to lid; stamped, lid. Butter. —Dairy. lOd to 10|d per lb; milled, lid; separator, in £lb pats, Is Pigs.—Baconers, 4d per lb; porkers. 4id. Bacon. —Rolls, 6d to 7d; boneless hams, 9£d; sides ham6, under 201 b, 8d per lb; pork Germans, in 141 b tins, four tin 3 to case, 5d per lb. FRUIT REPORT. The market generally is dull, and as in previous weeks, the chief interest centres in vegetables, in which there exists a shortage. Prices ruling are as follow: Oranges.—Rarotongan,- none offering ; Mildura, 9s 6d to 12s (re-packed); South Australian, 10s to 12s; Sydney, 7s to 10s; Navels, 14s. About 850 eases to arrive from Sydney on Monday. Bananas —Market bar© of supplies. Suvan realised up to 14s. Lemons.—South Australian, 9s to 10s; Sydney, 7s to 8s; Mildura, 8s to 9s 6d. Apples.—Large supplies of Tasmanian forward. Canterbury cookers, 5s to 8s; dessert. 4s to 7s; Tasmanian Scarlets, 8s to lis; Sturmers. 7s 6d to 8s; small, 6s 9d to 7s 3d; crabs, 8s to 8s 6d; small, 7s; stone pippins, 7s to 8s 6d. A nice line of crabs from Roxburgh realised up to 2*d per lb. Pears. —Tasmanian cookers, 10s. Mandarins.—ln short supply. Sydney packers. 8s to 10s; bushels, 7s to 10s per case; gins, 13s to 15a Passions. 5s 6d to 10s per half-gin. Pines.—Queens, 9s to 12*; roughs, from 7s 6d to 10s; inferior, 3s to ss. Vegetables. bages, from 3s bd up to 8* per sack; lcose, 4s to 7s 3d per dozen. Cauliflowers, 5s to 7s 10fi per sack; loose, from 4s to 8s per doz.m. Beetroot, 4d to lOd per dozen. Horseradish, Id to 2d per lb. Celery, Is to Is 9d per bundle (very scarce). Lettuce. Is- to Is 4d per dozen. Rhubarb, uo to 3d per lb. Honey.—Choice. to 4d p?r lb; 101 b tins, os 3d to 3s nd ; choice sections, 5s 6d to 6a 6d per dozen; medium, 3s to 4s 6d per dozen; in packets, 3s 6d to 3s 9d per dozen. Peanuts. —Japanese, 2£d to 3d. Walnuts.—Good demand; 6id to 7d per lb. Barcelona nuts. sid to 6id Brazils BAd to 9d. IMPORT MARKET. Some supplies of sago and tapioca have now been placed on the market, but there is no alteration in the price of local lots.

Advioe from the East, however, states thai there is still a firming influence there, tha latest quotation showing an increase of about Is per owt. The Otaki brings to this market the first shipment of the new season's supply of herring's. The price to the consumer is: , In sauce, 6s 9d per dozen; fresh, 5s 10£d ; per dozen ; and kippered : , 7s lid per dozen. It is expected that there will arrive on Sunday, ex the Oceania, if a connection has been made at Auckland, the first considerable supply of the new season's tinned Galifornian fruits. A small lot arrived about a. fortnight ago. The price is a little higher than was the case last year. Arjricots are about 6d per dozen dearer, and will go into | consumption at Cs per dozen; pears have ! advanced Is, and stand at 10s; peaches remain at much the same price as last year — . about 9s per dozen. ! The Otaki has brought supplies of Morton's olive oil. The price has advanced, | and is now 6s 3d per dozen for soz bottles and 10s 6d for lOoz lots. ! The same vessel has also brought a numI ber of lines which were required. These ' include Milkmaid milk, Colman's starch, | new season's herrings of all sorts, new seaJ son's ling fish, White's jellies, Maconochie's I strawberry conserve, and Morton's and i Maconochie's lines. A new line of cigarettes named Gold j Plate has been landed ex the Otaki. The price Jt to be the same as that of Old 1 Judge. j Golden Shred marmalade in 21b jars is again out of the market, but further sup- } plies are due ex the Cornwall. Packet sultanas a>re practically unprocurable now. Those that are on the market bring 5s per dozen at the lowest. The position of currants' is unaltered. Frimley peas are now unobtainable in 21b tins and half-gallon tins, the manufacturers having sold out. Supplies in lib tins are still available. Advices from America indicate increasing l costs in all Californian fruits. A parcel of cleaned Amelia currants i» due in a few days' time from Greece. This quality is very scarce, and the coming lot i is quoted at 3sd per lb. ' There has been an exceptional demand I for prunes lately. This fruit has established itself as a firm favourite in preference to all other fruits either dried or evaporated. In connection with this fruit some lines not carefully preserved do not keep too well. Cocoanut has risen in price, and the lowest, quotations are now in consequence as follows: —Chests, s£d per lb; half-chests, 5Jd per lb; packets, 7s per dozen lb. The very sharp and substantial rise in .iute goods in India will be reflected heir in the extra cost of sacks.