THE MAN BEHIND THE THRONE. '

Otago Witness, Issue 2860, 6 January 1909, Page 79

THE MAN BEHIND THE THRONE. '

(By F. A. M'Kenzie in the PaiJy Mail.) China to-day stands at the beginning of tremendous and inevitable change. The great reform movement carried on during •the Tule of the late Empress Dowager has now reached its hour of crisis. For the moment the passing of the old rulers has enormously strengthened the hands of the reformers, but their fight is not yet over. The immediate danger is not that the reactionaries should obtain control, but that there may come a revolutionary uprising against the Manchu dynasty — an uprising that will affoTd excuse for foreign intervention. To understand the situation in the i 8 provinces to-day it is necessary to remember that since the Boxer rebellion of 1900 China has systematically attempted to adopt the best- of Western Tvays. The education of officials has been changed, modern learning largely taking the place of Confucian classics. Schools fox Weetern teaching, started by the Government, nre springing up everywhere, and in ma.^y cities idols are being bundled out of the temples to make room for maps and blackboards. Railways are being planned and built on a larger scale than in any other land outside America. Life in the cities is being revolutionised, modern police methods adopted, and prisons reformed. The consumption of opium is being fought. A new army drilled on Western lines hae sprung int<» being. A powerful ne-vspaper press has appeared, almost in a night. Much, of course, remains to be done. Many abuses survive, and the corruption or weakness of local officials often wrecks admirable schemes. But the amount that, has been accomplished is amazing. , — The Leader of Reform. — i The one --man who has led the new re- ' form movement is Yuan Shi Kai, until recently Viceroy of Pe-chih-li, and now a member of the- Government at PeMn and \ t,he man behind the throne. I Yuan started reform because he realisedthaj/ unless China- changed her ways she could not hold together. He gathered around him a group of young officials who jhad been trained abroad, and organised a < strong fighting force under his personal control. He lias naturally had to face bitter opposition, especially from officials robhed of their perquisites and disturbed in their ancient ways. This opposition has been led by two powerful men- I—Tieh1 — Tieh Liang, a Grand Councillor and President of the Board of War, and Viceroy Chang Chih Tung. But Chang, great and influential as he is, is old, and Yuan, despite many struggles, has never lost his dominant power. Yuan has two great sources of strength. He is the hero of the new army, and his pplicy has made ft possible for China to obtain large loans in England. These Joans, spent on railways and internal works, Jjave yielded much profit to provincial officials. When 1 was with the reformed Chinese army in 1906 I heard Yuan's praises from all lips. Yuan's photograph jvas on the barrack walls, and ink authority t w&s admitted everywhere. , Jf the situation during the next few jgjooths maanly centred around the Governjyient in Pekijn th-ere would be little cause for alarm. Everything there pioinises \

well for reform. Even Chang Chih Tung is said to have settled his differences with Yuan, and the Dowager Empress tried to bring them together by inter-marriage in their families. The mercantile cl a-s.se fwhich can do mor-e than some are willirp to admit — are strongly in favour of advance along Western lines. Save for a revolution, p serious famine, a foreign quarrel, or the unexpected success of come palace plot, the 2-eformers will win. — The Rule of the Manchu.— Is there any prospect of a revolution ? Here we approach a very grave question, and one which even those who know China beet find it difficult to speak upon definitely. What can be said is that during the past two years the revolution iry secret societies, which permeate the land, have made elaborate preparations for z n uprising, and have managed to smuggle large quantities of arms into the country for that purpose. As is well known, the Chinese Imperial Family of to-day is Manchu, nofc Chinese. It placed itself upon the throne, centuries ago, as the outcome of a successful invasion. The Manchu conquerors have been practically absorbed in x the Chinese. They still, as a mattei of form, retain certain minor distinctions of dress and custom. The Manchu lady wears a specially picturesque head-dre.=s and does not bind her feet like the Chinese woman. Manchu families post-ess certain privileges, have some posts retained for them, and in questions of appointments are treated as the "most favoured" people. Recently the Government have done its utmost to breik down even these distinctions in order to show the real unity of the two peoples. Nevertheless, the rule of the Manchu has been the excuse for endless rebellions. Societies of all kinds, with fancy names such as the "Big Knife," aiming to destroy the Manchu Government, can be found from Mukden to Canton. Every Chinese settlement abroad is a field for revolutionary endeavour. Londoners have not yet forgotten how a few years ago a man, Sun Vat Sen, was—kidnapped in the streets of London, shut up in the Chinese Legation, and only released at the command of oui Government. Dr Sun ia to-day the head of a. vast revolutionary organisation, working largely from Hanoi and from Japan. Dr Sun has, the Chinese declare, the special protection of- the Japanese Government. — Preparing for Revolution. — The revolutionists prepared for an uprising to take place when the Empress Dowager died. JSiot long since Russian officials on the Chinese frontier told me of the bold attempts made by the Chinese secret society agents to smuggle in arms from Russian territory. The officials were proud because they had stopped some t contraband cargoes. Doubtless for every one they stopped a hundred got through. On the North China coast one or two well-known European, houses axe under open suspicion of gun-running, theii cargoes being obtained mainly from Germany. But the chief offenders are without question the Japanese merchants — a fact piobably due to the proximity of Japan. EaTly this year a Chinese warship arrested a Japanese vessel, the Tatsa Maru. full of contraband. The arrest caused much diplomatic trouble, and in the end the Chinese Government had to apologise. The Japanese Cabinet reciprocally promised to try to stop the illegal traffic in arms. But with the best cf good will on the part of the Tokio authorities it would be hard for them wholly to scotch this profitable trade. The Peking Government is well aware of its danger. The revolutionists are being fought, openly acd secretly. Large rewards are offered for the capture of secret society leadeas ; detectives are scattered not only in Japan and Irdo-China, but even faather afield, to obtain, knowledge of the consignments of arms. At the same time, the Government has honestly tried to remove all justification for anti-dynastic movements. But the rebels, with their influential connections, both high and low, have po^er, money, and activity. It seems hardly possible that they should have made all their elaborate* preparations' for nothing. If they are to strike, they must strike during the coming winter. — Tlie Danger of Foreign Intervention. — For this reason many fear that the coming of the new Emperor will be followed by some internal disturbances. The&o <lihtuj Lances will not be anti-for.ei?n, lake the Boxer morement. Chinese feeling towards foreigners is now in most parts decidedly friendly. Bu* they will give some excuse for foreign intervention. This is the real danger: It is not to the intere*^ of some Great Powers that China should be too strong, and China is daily renewing her youth. If -uprisings come', they will possibly be accompanied by unfortunate incidents, and outside Powers may philanthropkally offer to step in to restore order. If this takes place, then China will be transformed from the greatest potential market of the world to the spliere of influence of certain nations. Whatver may be the purpose of other Powers, the intention of England and of America is plain. For us, a strong China and a reformed China means fresh markets, fresh forces for vierld peace, and greater world prosperity. It is for us to see that China has fair play, if trouble conies. i