THE COMING HARVEST.

Otago Witness, Issue 2808, 8 January 1908, Page 6

THE COMING HARVEST.

The interim return of corn and green crops in New Zealand for' the season 1907-8, compiled this year by the Division of Live Stock and Agriculture, instead of, as for some years past, by the statistician of the Department of Agriculture, and appearing at an^even later date than usual, shows most forcibly the trend of farming a\yay from wheat-growing and towards^ an extension of fat lamb production. In former times, when wheat has been high in price, as it has been for months past, there has been a largo increase in the area sown ; but this season, despite the high price the absence of old, stock, there is 'actually a. decrease, the area in wheat for threshing being set down at 192,634 acres, as against an estimated area of 206,185 acres reaped last season (the Gazette gives for- purposes of comparison the full area sown last year, but it is more correct /to take the are* reaped, 5000 acres last yeaT being esti mated to have Been fed off by stock a3 too light in yield to pay^ f or harvesting)' This is the smallest area for many years past, and it is. very .questionable whether it will produce .sufficient wheat for the 1 Dominion's requirements during the en I suing year. The population is closely appioaching 1,000,000 in number, and at the estimate of six bushels per capita ior food for that number, with the usual inclusion of what is usedi for food for poultry and other stock, and two bushels per acre on 200,000 acres for seed, a total requirement of, say, 6,400,00 C bushels, an average yield of over 33 bushels per acre will be necessary. It can confidently be predicted that this average yield will not be reached. The principal wheat-growing district — the Ashburton county — has bee» the centre of a drought area, and the crop tjhere has suffered so severely that it is estimated to produce under rather than over 25 bushels per acre. Tkere are, no doubt, good crops in most other districts, but they will not suffice to raise the average for the Dominion to 30 bushels — 27 or 28 bushels is a much more probable ayerage A 28-bushel crop will leave a deficit of nearly 1,000,000 bushels in the ensuing year's supply. There will be no surplus from the past season to carry forward; indeed, jf tne return of the quantity on hand on "October 31 is correct importations of something approaching 1,000,000 bushels will Be necessary to supply consumption dnring the four months between that date and March 1 next, when the new wheat will " become "'available. Circumstances, „ however; cause i the official, figures to be regarded ,in many quarters" with some doubt. In, "the first place," if the estimate of the stock on October 31— 1,105,254 bushels — were correct, the Dominion would at the present moment be absolutely without breadstuffs, importations duryjg the last two months having been comparatively unimportant. There is still, however, a considerable quantity of wheat in farmers', merchants', and millers' handsr while high prices, have a remarkable effect in bringing v old hoards to light, as well as in restricting consumption; and, judging by the attitude of millers, there is no apprehension of the stock (whatever its quantity may be) being insufficient to supply requirements until the new crop is available. As to the supply for the ensuing year (March 1, 1908, to February 28, 1909), doubt of the accuracy of. the figures relating to the x area sown is also expressed.! It is contended -that though spring sowing was hindered a good deal by dry weather, it was continued to a much later period than usual, and wheat was^ sown in some localities after the returns had been taken, the high price then ruling being the incentive to this late sowing. It is improbable, however, that the acreage thus added, to the area in crop will more than compensate for crops which have failed. Thus-the^ outlook at present is - that importations will be necessary to supply food and^seed wants during the ensuing year. Regarding oats, a similar comparison to that, applied to wheat shows an increase of 44,363 acres upon the total area sown last season. This is a - greater increase than was "generally anticipated, and is more marked in Canterbury than in Otago and Southland, where sheep are "claiming ""more attention than hitherto. Whatever may be' the case regarding wheat, there is no danger of any. shortage of oats; on the other hand, speculations are already being hazarded of a substantial surplus being available from which to supply probable Commonwealth wants. The crop in many parts of Canterbury will be light, but elsewhere, especially in Southland, will be heavy, and on the average the yield will be equal to that of a good year. There is a small increase in barley, „ chiefly in Canterbury, so that it will not have much effect. The great increase in rye gives rise to the suspicion that some returns for ryegrass" have been included with the *yecorn. Maize remains almost stationary, notwithstanding its value to dairy-farmers. Peas show an unaccountable falling-off from 11,511 acres last season to 8398 acres in the present, all districts except Otago having a decrease. Beans show an almost proportionate decrease, and the minor crops also have reduced areas. The areas in grasses for" seed are not given. A perusal of the return should cause farmers to consider" whether,' notwithstanding the attractions and profit of sheep, it is wise to reduce the wheat area belo^f our -own requirements. Many of them believe that they have not received fair prices for their crops; others are dismayed at the cost and uncertainty of labour, but the superior inducements presented by sheep form the main reason for abandoning wheatgrowing. Now the fall in wool and pelts has depreciated the value of sheep and lambs, some of them may wish they had pursued ihek former course and gut the

regular proportion of their land " into wheat, which promises to be a good for some time, to come: