THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2784, 24 July 1907, Page 21

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Friday.

Latest advices from London report the wheat market as steady and quiet, immediate supplies from Europe being ample and cargoes consequently neglected. There- are indications, however, within the last few days of a revival of demand for cargoes. On the 10th inst. the sale of an Australian oargo v:a& cabled at 35s 3d, and to-night oomes news of the sale of two more~Australian cargoes at 34s 9d and 355. Now. assuming these to be off-coast cargoes, this shows a decline of fully Is per quarter from the Jiighest point touched on July 6. The period of comparative quietude which bas 'agam sei in may at any time now be broken by fairly accurate estimates of tbe European and American harvests. And upon the nature of these reports the more immediate attitude of the markets depends. For, ' although ultimately prices are bound to advance, the more immediate future is difficult to forecast. This is luminously explained in the following report by "Beerbohin " under date London, June 7 : —

The market during the past week has been somewhat irregular. The American markets ihave been inclined to weakness, notwithstanding obvious crop damage, and the shipments to 'Europe have again been liberal, although not in excess of the evidently large requirements of importing countries just now. More favourable reports regarding the Busman spring wheat crop have also been received, and have' counterbalanced the very ■unfavourable reports of the autumn-sown wheat; and it is 'a fact that Russia has lwtely shown ".herself a more willing seller. Thus it' happens that, in spite of omciallyoonfirmed serious 'damage to the crops in Germany, Austria-Hungary, Roumania, and .Bulgaria, and leas' favourable reports from Italy, -buyers have held aloof, evidently regarding" the advance in prices as sufficient for the time; and being now disposed to await farther crop developments. This abstention of buyers, added to the desire to realise profits, has led to a decline of 6d to Is per quarter in cargoes near at v hand, and also in parcels for London. The" general outlook, however, remains without material change, indicating, as it does, a serious deficit in the European crop, compared with last year; it is Iquite probable, indeed, we think, that the European crop this year may not reach 200 million quarters, whilst for the past five years its has averaged 230 million quarters. In America, too, the most conservative authorities look for a reduction in the crop, compared with last year, qf 15 million quarters. These questions, of course, concern She future; for the present we have to deal with ' fairly ample supplies, and it is not surprising that a- check should have been »ut upon the upward movement of prices. In America, too, there is no doubt that the fact Chat the present American-Canadian visible supply is about four million quarters above the average for the past 10 years, acts as an obstacle to any exaggerated rise in prioßS. It will be seen that while the European " visible" is jus* about equal to the average, the American total stands out very much larger; it is, in fact, the largest since that period of large supplies and low prices •which is embraced in the years 1893, 1894, 1895. It must not be forgotten, however, in making these comparisons that the home consumption in the United States and Canada is probably 10 million quarters greater lihan rl was, say, in 1894. co that an American " visible" of 10 million quarters in 1884 was a much more powerful element of depression than a similar quantity would tie nowadays. To some extent this argument Also applies to the European visible supply.

It is interesting to note that the American risible supply is cabled to-night as 63,667,000 bushels, with 7,883,000 quarters, which, Compared with the 9,125,000 quarters on -June Xt *hftWl A diminution of LjJ42»PQQ

quarters in the last cix weeks — in itself a significant sign. In sympathy with London, the Commonwealth 'quotations this week are a shade easier. Sydney holders ask 4s to 4s Id, while buyers offer 3s lOd to 3s lid ; in Melbourne wheat is reported dull at 3s 10£ d t:> 3s Id; while in Adelaide it is quoted at the same prices. The following reports by the Sydney Mail, dated 9th inst., would seem to indicate that one factor which helps to depress the market is the difficulty in procuring suitable freights for shipment to London : —

The wheat markets,, both here and abroad, continue to harden. Comparatively little business was, however, done locally last week, owing to a general disposition on the part of millers to pay the high prices demanded. Yesterday many of them exhibited more concern about adding to their stocks, but found it impossible to secure any lines under 4s Id per bushel, Darling Harbour. Two parcels covering 8000 bags were sold on this basis, and negotiations for further parcels were afoot. In tihe country districts a number of minor lots have been picked up at equal toj 4s, but the aggregate quantity would, perhaps, not represent 2000 or 8000 bags. Some large holders refuse in the meantime to entertain business under 4s 2d and 4s 3d. In Melbourne the market has advanced to 4s Old and 4s Id, some thousands of bags being taken at these rates yesterday. Adelaide wheat markets have raised prices to farmers from 3s 8d to 3s lOd, but the latter still show little inclination to, selU The shipping value in Adelaide is now 4s f.o.b. Export operations have fallen off considerably. There are no ships* on 1 the list for Sydney loading, but tihe steamer Persic is loading 1500 tons this week at Darling Island for Liverpool. Victoria his five sailers chartered, and South Australia, where the bulk of the wheat surplus remaining lies, has 14 for different ports. Half of the ships engaged are, however, of small tonnage, and booked to load for South Africa.

The announcement of the Government's decision not to interfere with the tariff on wheat and flour has been the signal for a renewal of activity in the New Zealand market, although so far local millers have not commenced to operate. A fair amount of business, running into some thousands of sacks, and at prices ranging from 4s 6^d to 4s 7d, on trucks, is reported from Ashburton, South Canterbury, and North Otago, and it is shrewdly suspected that some, at anjrate, of the buying is on North Island account. It is also known that some of the local millers cannot much longer hold their hands. Thus holders fully maintain the firmness of the market and evince not the slightest disposition to reduce their limits. This, of course, means that millers who have to go into the market stand to lose money on their grist, while millers with old-bought wheat could do better by turning over their holdings than by manufacturing flour at the present rate. The situation is a peculiar one, and no ready solution suggests itself. The Millers' Association naturally, is not desirous to raise the price of flour right on top of the Budget announcement in its favour, and. besides, it views with a certain amount of apprehension the weekly shipments of Australian flour now pouring into the North Island. The scarcity of chick wheat continues and for local orders from 4s 5d to 4s 6d, ex 6tore, is being paid for medium milling quality to take the place of good whole fowl feed. For shipping orders 4s 5d f.o.b. is the current quotation. There >s no change in the price of flour end the tariff of the associated millers stands:— Sacks, £10 ss; 100's, £10 15a; 50's, £11; 25's, £11 ss. The shipping price is £10 f.0.b., and the Invercargill price £10 10s. The demand for offal continues brisk, and slocks are light. Bran is quoted at £4 10s per ton for local orders, and £4 5s f.o.b. for shipment. Pollard is quoted at £5 10s per ton both for local orders and shipment. The oat market is quiet, but firm, with better inquiries from the North Island. Holders are asking 3s lid to 3s 2d f.o.b.s.i. for small lines, but business has been done at 3s Id f.o.b.s.i. for B grade. Locally, good feed oats are firm at 3s ex store. There is a good demand for seed oats, which command full rates. Oatmeal is quoted at £16 per ton and pearl barley at £14 to £14 10e. The potato market keeps firm. Prime samples of Up-to-dates are saleable at £4 10s to £4 15s. Tasmanians are offering at £4. Butter.— Dairy, 8d to 9d; milled, 9d to lOd; separator, 9£d to lOd. First-grade factory— prints, lljd booked, ll£d cash; bulk llid. North Island pats, 103 d to lid. Cheese. — Market firm. Factory mediums, 6id per 1b; Akaroa loaf, 6id per lb; medium, 6d. Eggs are scarce, and the price remains at Is 8d per dozen; preserved are in demand at Is 3d to Is 4d Poultry. — Supplies fair, prices firm. Hens, 2s 9d to 3s 3d; roosters, 3s to ss; ducks, 4s to 6s; turkeys — hens 5d per lb, gobblers 7d. Pigs. — Baco^ and porkers are q\ioted at 5d to 51d; bacon, 8d; ham, B£d. Chaff. — Extra prime oaten slieaf, up to £5 12s 6d per ton. Saturday. This evening's cablegram from London is extremely interesting, inasmuch as it fully bears out our contention that notwithstanding the decline from the top of the market flf la per JLuajter— reiened

tp in yesterday's report, — the actual situa»tion -shows no material change. And, in addition,- it is stated that the brilliant summer weather is the cause of the general inactivity in fhe market, which, despite the sma-flness of the world's shipments, has led to 'the decline. At the lame time, although South Australian April shipments are offering at 35s 3d, Victorian September shipments are quoted at 37a, while there is a better demand for Australian spot wheat at 36s to 375. The following detailed list of the sales of , Australian cargoes made in Mark lane at the beginning' of the month, throws light upon the relative importance of the prices quoted above :— July 3. Cockermoutfo, 9590 quarters, N.S.W., Sydney, March 19 34/4J Meinwen, 11,600 quarters, Viet., Melbourne, March 10 35/ County of Merionetli. 7SOO quarters. South Aust., fox ward shipment .. .. 36/7 J July 4. County of Merioneth, resold 36/9 Derwent, 13,016 quarters, N.S.W., Sydney, April 3 34/6 Af on Alaw, 15 566 quarters, South Aust., Port Germein, May 2 " .. 35/4J C&mhronne; 12,412 quarters, N.S.W., Sydney, March, 26 34/9 Arranmore, 14,479 quarters, South Aust., Adelaide, March 24 '34/9 Bessfield, 9493 quarters, South Aust., Adelaide, June 24 .. .: 35/6 Meinwen, 11,600 quarters, Victorian, Melbourne, March 10 35/ July 5. Sokoto, 15,000 quarters, South Aust., just loaded at Port Victoria .. .. 37/ Echnond Rostand, 14,203 quarters. South Aust., Wallaroo, June 23 36/4J Afon Alaw, 15,566 quarters, South Aust., Port Germein, M«y 2 36/4 J Glehdova, 17,194 quarters, Viet., Melbourne, April 14 36/ Invermay, 11,115 quarters, South Aust., Wallaroo, April 15, 36/ Simla, 17,249 quarters, South Au§t., Port Pirie, April 24 36/ Jessomene, 14,149 quarters, South Aust., Wallaroo, April 15 36/ Edouard Detaille; 14,237 quarters, N.S.W., Sydney, April 16 36/ Fahrwohl, 10,503 quarters, South Aust., Adelaide, April 10 36/ Celestial Empire, 12,166 quarters, South Aust., Wallaroo, March 27 35/6 Loch Ryan, 7700 quarters, Viet., Geelong, March 22 35/4J July 6. Loch Ryan, resold 36/3 Celestial Empire, resold 36/ Sainte Anne, 10,334 quarters, N.S.W., Sydney, March 19 36/3 A certain amount of ebb and flow in prices is inseparable from a steadily climbing market such as the next few months - would seem to foreshadow. And this decline from the top cf an excited market is only what might be expected. The progress of prices in. London ie well illustrated in the following Sydney advice, written under date 9th met. : — Fair business has been done in Australian ' cargoes, and, judging by the numerous resales, competition for the wheat, probably from Germany, must be very keen. On Friday news came through that the County of Merioneth's \ cargo, now being loaded at Port Adelaide, had brought 36s 9d per 4801b c.f.i. Next day that record was broken, that of tfoe Sokoto, now loading in South Australia, being placed at 375. The advance becomes more striking when compared with 29s 6d ruling in January, showing a rise, of 7s 6d per quarter, or Hid per bushel. The highest prices obtained in the latter part of May, when the last heavy buying and selling of Australian cargoes took place, was 365, for the shipment in the Seerose, which left Melbourne on M«y 31, while 35s 6d and 35s 9d were also paid for two May cargoes. In the four or five -weeks of quietude which ensued the market was easier, but now, as the latest prices received indicate, it has more than recovered. Some big profits have been made in London out of these resales. The Arranmore's March cargo was reported, for instance, on May 10 as having been pieced at '3ls 9d; on June 25 it brought 33s 6d. and now it has been resold at 34s 9d — an advance of 3s per quarter inside two months. The cargo in the Meinwen brought 35s for March loading, and Sunday's cables show that two March cargoes have realised 36s 3d and a third 365, prices Is 9d to 2a per 4801b higher than were obtained only a week before. Six April shipments also sold at 365. The moral of all this scarcely needs pointing out. It is within the limits of sound reasoning to assume, that the upward course of the market from now to the end of the year, will be characterised J > by fairly frequent bursts of excitement, i followed by periods of comparative quiet ; every upward move, however, establishing the market at a higher permanent level than before. The average purchaser, disregarding past experience, almost always waits for the excitement to begin before he rushes in to buy, consequently he pays top prices. The shrewd speculator, on the r | contrary, selects the periods of quietude ' ' as the opportunity to add to his holdings ; ■ thus, when the excitement begins, he is ' ready to take his profit. This will probably explain the transactions whioh have taken place in the north during the past i few days. It may, therefore, be anticipated that another rise in London is not far off. The laleet estimate of the Commonwealth wheat yield, with the prospective ' amount still available for shipment, compiled from | the most authoritative information is of \ considerable interest at this juncture: — i The official estimates of the wheat crops in Queensland and New Zealand having come to hand anable the appended oomp*iisaa to be

made of the 1906-7 Australasian, yield, and th«t of the previous season. The figures for the Commonwealth show a big reduction on the preharvesrt forecasts, which placed the harvest at about 77 million bushels, although, in January we compiled a return putting it -down *t 68,889,213 bushels, wihioh is some ! three million bushels higher than the final i official figures. In South Australia, however j the Government statist's estimate has been I stiomgly taken exception to as unduly low, i and the. trade has practically discarded his I -figures in favour of those given by the Adelaide Register — namely, 20,475,000 bushels. Wanking on this basis the Australian yield, can be set down at 69 million bushels, or a trifle more 'than* was garnered in the previous season. The surplus over requirements may ba still placed at approximately 38 million bushels, and of this a little over 27 million . bushels have been exported in seven momtths, leaving nearly 11 million bushels available for shipment during the next five' months: — 1905-6, 1906-7. 1906-7. I - Yield I Bushels. Bushels, per acre. j N.S.W. .. „ 20,737,200 21,817,938 11.7 ! Victoria .. .. 23,417,670 22,618,043 11.13 ! South Aus- > faralia .. .. 20,143,798 17,145,796' 10.2 i Western Australia .. .. 2,308,305 2,300,354 10.67 Queensland .. 1,137,321 1,108,902 9.68 Tasmania .. 776,478 702,300 — Commonwealth 68 520,772 65,693,333 — New Zealand.. 6,798,934 5,605,252 — Australasia 75,319,706 71,298,585 — The Australian yield in 1904-5 was 54,535,682 bushels, and in 1903-4 (the record season) 74.149,634 bushels. The New Zealand crop in 1904-5 yielded 9,123,673 bushels, and in 1903-4 j. it ijas 7,891,654 bushels. The regular weekly shipments of Australian flour flow arriving in this colony are having a depressing influence upon the flour market, for the bulk* of these shipments were bought before the rise at a price which enables them to be sold- at less than the locally-manufactured article. Thus considerable interest attaches to the Australian flour situation: — Although business in flour has been very difficult to get at the prices wanted (says the ' Sydney Morning Herald of the 10th inst.), still, in view of the upwanl tendency of the wheai market, the leading metropolitan millers on Friday decided to raise their qxiota-tions to £9 108 per ton, an advance of 10s. Prices for country brands are irregular, ranging from , £8 10a to £9. Several • hundred of tons of 1 country flour were bought before the ripe at I £8 6s— part being taken by city millers. Tflbe improved prices quoted in London and Glasgow for Australian flcur may yet lead to a resumption of shipping. Prom Sydney last week, the equivalent of 9224 socks were oonsigned to the Straits and Java, 2260 sacks : to the Philippines, 600 sacks to Cochin China, , 980 sacks to Hongkong, 770 sacks to New Zeni land, 161 sacks to Noumea, and 251 sacks to { South Seas. The bulk of this represented tbe fulfilment of orders at much lower prices. IMPORT MARKET. Business during the week has been considerably unsettled owing to the extensive nature of the Government's proposals for tariff revision. Merchants generally are of the opinion that the Government would have been well advised to have made all the alterations operative at once, instead of aa^ under present proposals, one section of the alterations coming- into effect at once, a second section peing * postponed until October, and a third section not operating until March of next year. As a consequence a considerable amount of confusion is certain to be caused, and the normal flow of business will be interfered with. In the case of such lines of dried fruits, the duty upon which it is proposed to remit in October next, it will be difficult to move off duty-paid stocks in the interval, so that distributors are likely to 6uffer as great loss as if remission had been made at once. Again, in the case of all goods manufactured and packed in foreign countries and upon which additional preferential duties will be levied next year, such as certain brands of cocoa, canned fruits, etc., already merchants are arranging for heavy indents of these lines, so that they can be cleared, for home consumption before the duty is levied. . Detailed information of the most important of the tariff proposals will be found in the mail Summary accompanying this issue. • Apart from the term proposals and the alteration in prices which they necessitate, there are no changes in the import market worthy of record.