WILL THE WHITE RACE DIE ?

Otago Witness, Issue 2669, 10 May 1905, Page 71

WILL THE WHITE RACE DIE ?

"In civilised countries generally, with the exception of Russia, where the average number of children to a married couple is still over six, the birth rate is falling. This does not necessarily entail a diminution in population, of course, nor does it even necessarily entail a diminution in the rate at which the population increases, for the death r;ite is also steadily falling, and has been so falling for many decades past, in all countries from which figures can be obtained. With the decline of the birth rate of the Caucasian races — we shall later LOte the relation of this question to the Mongol — may be correlated a steady advance in the average age at marriage, which, iv this country, has now reached the figure of 28 years for men and 25 for women. In Now South Wales the Government statistician has lately pointed out that the average age at which women marry is a year and a-half later than it was only two decades ago. . . [In Fiance] the birth rate is lower than in any other civilised country, being, indeed, only very slightly in excess of the death rate. It is obvious what this spells. Recognising, or assuming, the futility of any attempt to avert this decline, many French statesmen are now diverting their attention to reducing the infantile mortality, so that, of the children that are born, as mam- as possible shall survive. Some day this will be regarded as an Imperial matter here. . Very significant is it that the same tale is now coming from. Germany, and, notably, from the large ton vs — a fact of great importance. In Berlin, the average birth race fiom 1875 to 1880 was 45 per 10C0 ; from 1881 to 1885 it was 38 ; from 1886 to 1890 it was 34 ; from 1891 to 1895, 31 ; and from 1896 to 1900 it had fallen to 28 per 1000. That is to say, it fell from 45 to 28 in a quarter of a century ; whilst the marriage rate lemained stationary.

" But now as to Anglo-Saxondom. The case of Australia is of the greatest importance for every Imperialist, especially if be remembers the teeming population of Jax&n and her geographical relation to our great colony. The vital statistics of Australia have lately caused so much

alarm that a commission was appointed to consider them. After careful inquiry for several months by an expert body it was concluded that the ordinary laws of increase of population would entitle Australia to about one million more inhabitants than she at present possesses. . . The Regis-trar-general's last report, published recently, shows that there is no abatement in this decline. The figure for 1905, 27.9 per 1000, is the lowest on record. We are on our way to the 21 per 1000 of France. . . What, then, as to the consequences of our falling birth rate? Obviously there is a •v cry bright side to the picture. As the birth rate and the death rate fall we shall reach the state of things predicted by Spencer, when the amount of life is the maximum possible relatively to the number of births and deaths. The future economy in human energy is quite incalculable, as is the gain in human happiness and in the worth of life. But, as plainly, there is something to be said on the other side. If it be a biological law that the lower types multiply at a greater rate than the higher, there is always the risk that the struggle for existence may become too severe for the superior minority. If lower types, — or types that we consider lower — find themselves able to live and multiply in conditions which will not support the higher, then we shall no longer be able to labour under the popular error that the ' survival of the fittest ' means the survival of the best, instead of the survival of the best adapted to the conditions.

" The bearing of this question on contemporary happenings in the Far East is. obvious. We have no precise data as to the birth rates of the Mongolian peoples as a whole. We cannot sa3 r whether they are falling as they are with us. In all probability they are not falling. The birth rate of Japan has risen from 26.8 to 32.7 in the last decade — another point in which the Land of the Rising Sun is unique among civHised peoples. Furthermore, we know that the Mongol can survive in conditions fatal to the Caucasian As far as certain physical criteria go, he is fitter. At the present time the Yellow peoples constitute, I suppose, at least one-fourth of the population of tho carth — perhaps one-third. The question then arises : What may be expected to happen if the Caucasian races — with the exception of Russia, specially in-

tevesting at this time, though the rise m her birth rate during the past decade is trivial — continue to multiply with everdiminishing speed, while the Yellow races continue -with unabated speed? The case of Australia is particularly in point. Here is a great continent, well able to support, perhaps, a couple of millions "of people, which has been taken by the white rain, and from which he finds it necessary in sel f -protection to exclude the Yellow man. But his ability to continue this policy will ultimately come to be a matter of counting heads. As far as we can judge, the present war may be regarded as, in part, a consequence of the rapidity with which the Japanese are multiplying. But the white man in Australia is hardly multiplying at all, and is doing so at less speed every year. The Australian birth rate has fallen since 1893 in greater degree than the Japanese rate has°risen. How much, longer, if the present conditions continue, will the white race be able to hold its own in our great Island Colony?"— C. W. S., in the Out look.