THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION

Otago Witness, Issue 2647, 7 December 1904, Page 15

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION

ITS GRAVE PORTENTS. (From Omt Own Corrbspondent.) LONDON, October 14.' Apparently the . Kaiser has recognised that his attitude towards Lippe-Detmold might prove the thin end of a wedge that would split 'up his empire. According to the latest' news, he 'has virtually climbed down, with the aid of his Chancellor, and not any - too soon, for a very dangerous spirit 'of- mutiny- was beginning to show its head in more than one of his vassal States. There is this about the affair which possesses^ special interest for- the British Empire : that, as I pointed out last week, tlie remedy -almost certain to have been adopted in the event of a German break-up being gravely imminent would haye been" a "popular" war against Britain. As it is, we hope -that such a deplorable complication is. averted, for the present at anvrate.

But among" the thoughtful of the London community there is growing a clearer and clearer realisation of the momentous peril which menaces us in the not-distant future whichever way the Russo-Japanese war may go. Should Russia win— which at the present moment does not seem particularly probable, if one may rely on any of the news published in" to-day's papers, — she stands pledged to insist to the uttermost on her rights of conquest. That would mean the virtual annihilation of our ally Japan as a great Power, and the establishment of Russian predominance in both the Far and the Near East, with practical suzerainty, if not absolute sovereignty, over China and most undesirable facilities for threatening both Persia and India. If Britain should resolve to oppose this, then Russia will offer to France and Germany such tempting terms of Chinese partition, as well as the cession of Egynt to France and valuable facilities in Persia to Germany, that Britain would find herself with her back up against the wall compelled to fight all those Powers at once, and all over the world.

On the other hand, should Japan win* against Russia — of which there seems at present at least- a reasonable likelihood, — theni .will come the pregnant question of the "apres." What is to, follow? , Japan has declared that she will not annex either Korea or Manchuria, but, that she will insist that no other Power shall exercise any control in either country, a-nd will demand adequate guarantees to this effect. Also,, an indemnity" would have to be paid to the victor. It is noteworthy that each combatant has already proclaimed with resolute emphasis that the post-bellum experience of the past will not again be submitted to by the conqueror. Russia shouts noisily that there must not, and shall not, be any. repetition of the sequel of her last war against Turkey, when Lords Beaconsfield and Salisbury went to Berlin and calmly snatched away from Russia the prize which had so long been coveted, and in the effort to obtain which blood and treasure had been poured forth like waste water. "No more Berlin Conferences for us," vociferate the Russians; "what we win we'll keep and hold against all the world." Japan very quietly, but just as resolutely, declai-es that never again will she submit to the' spoiliation of her just fruits of victory, such as was- inflicted upon her by Russia, France, and Germany at the close of her victorious war against China, which spoiliation is the real cause of the present war. " No," say the Japanese, " this is a matter of life and death to us, and we cannot and will not accept any half-terms or submit to any outside interference with our rights. Whether we submitted tamely, or fought for our rights and were defeated, the result would be virtually the same in its effect upon our fortunes, and so we shall at least struggle to the bitter end in self-defence."

Here it is that England comes in. She is bound by solemn treaty, as well as in her own most urgent Imperial interests, to stand by Japan should an attempt be made by outside Powers to filch the fruits of Japanese conquest or to snatoh them from the victor. And then — Armageddon !

His Excellency the Governor has appointed Mr A. JR. Barclay to be a trustee of the Duuecun Savings Bank.