The Otago Witness,

Otago Witness, Issue 2624, 29 June 1904, Page 52

The Otago Witness,

WITH WHICII IS INCORPORATED THE SOUTHERN

MEKCURY

{WEDNESDAY, JUNK! SO, l!) 0' f )

THE WEEK.

" Sunouam aliud natura, a.sud japientia <Usil."-j 0T«0 T«» M . " Qood nature and jood seme must e\ er join.-'— Popi

The secoud session of the fifteenth New

Zealand Parliament was PaiH-imcut and opened yesterday by our ' the Premier, new Governor, his Excellency Lord Plunket. At no time does the Speech from the Throne excite a great deal of interest, and on this occasion it lias been largely discounted by the Premier's pre-sessional address at New- I town. In the course of that addrcrs Mr Seddon took occasion to remark that the coming session would be like those that preceded it, and probably there is more meaning in that phrase than aprjears on the surface. For the nonce the all-absorb-ing question is whether the Premier has sufficiently recuperated to amble him to stand the strain of what promises to be a long and trying session. It is matter for ger-eral congiatulation that Mr Seddon has so far recovered strength as to be able to take his place as leader of the House, for whatever opinion we may hold regirding the desirability of a change of administration as be'ng for the colony's best interests, j yet, at the same time, we should much 1 egret were the retirement of the present Ministry brought about in any other way j than as the result of a, fair stand-up fight j on an important policy measure. We are ; sure t.hat neither Mr Massey nor any of the Opposition members crave for a ..-natch victory owing to the ill-heoCth of the Premier, but rather that Mr Seddon should so husband his physical strength as to be able to keep in the lead throughout the session, and take whatever victories or defeats the division lists may bring. At the same time it has to be remembered that it is exceedingly difficult for a man of Mr Seddon's temperament to moderate his pace, even in face of the recent serious warning which his breakdown has conveyed to him. An illustration of this was given on Saturday night at Newtown, when Mr Ssddon, although warned only to speak for one hour, delivered an address which occupied exactly double the prescribed time. And in the same way, although there is talk of no late sittings and morning ses- s sione, and the like, yet all who are ac- ' quainted with parliamentary procedure in- I cline to the belief that the Premier's words will come time, and that in respect of late '■ hours, legislation by exhaustion, acri- ' monious debate, and the .like, the session ] just commenced will be very like those ' which have preceded it. In which case, j although Mr Seddon may, by sheer per- , sistence of purpose, last out the session, it ' may be at the cost of his health for the ■ remainder of his life. On the other hand the Premier has, by the admirable temper of his Newtown speech, set an example of abstinence from personalities which it is to be hoped may be carried into the pro- ' ceedings of Parliament. Certainly there is no reason why man who conscientioxislv '. differ on great public questions should not ' abstain from carrying controversy into private life; but, unfortunately, so* heatedis the political atmosphere that motives are continuously being imputed, and personalities inevitably follow. Seeing, however, that- Mr Seddon, on the eve of the session, raised such a high standard, if he can restrain his impetuosity and set a consistent example in courtesy and polite ' speech, his political opponents wiCl welcome ! the change, the business of the colony will j ba all the more expeditiouplv conducted, and much unpleasantness will be avoided.

it is impossible to abstain from admiring the adroitness with which The Outlook Sir Seddon seeks io placate

for and conciliate those to whom tlte Licensing he fiars he has given offence, Question. and this was especially ob-

servable in t.hat portion of his speech in which he referred to the licensing question. It was a" bold stroke of policy to select Newtown as the venue of his pre-seshion.il deliverance, and still bolder to give such prominence in that deliverance to licensing matter^. Very cleverly did he try to cGeai* the Government from the blame of the present imbroglio, but his reasoning, though plausible enough, will scarcely carry convict io-n to anyone who has studied the subject. Little good, however, can be accomplished by rehearsing the mistakes of the past, and the apportionment of the blame must necessarily remain a debatable point. Fdr more important are the measures with which Mr Seddon proposes to relieve the situation ; and on this point the wiliness of the practised politician! is transparently shown. Mr Seddon admits that the No-license party, the "trade," the moderates, and the people generally desire the matter of licensing adjusted without delay, and he has foreshadowed the early introduction of a Licensing Bill "in the interests and for the well-being of the people of th« country." And then, assuming the attitude of an onlooker who has no particular concern in the matter, the Premier remarks : "Let the legislators of this country go into the whole matter " carefully, and place on the Statute Book legislation that would remove the difficulties now existing, and ensure effect being given to the will of the people." This has ever been the Premier's unstatesmanlike fashion of dealing with the licensing question — to throw down upon the floor of the House a bill containing provisions calculated to excite violent opposition from both the "trade" and the Temperance party, and then look on smilingly whilst they fight it out. It is generally understood that the new bill will be largely a replica of the measure introduced last sessitm, and that it will again contaii^ the obnoxious "no-license-no-liquor clause," &o universally condemned. And if this prophecy prove to be well foundtd, then

it will go far (o expose Mr Seddon's want of sincerity in this matter. The people of New Zealand are not ready — if, indeed, they ever will be — or a no-ucense-no-liquor bill, but they do desire the power placed in their hands to keep the liquor trade under proper control, or, if it be found impossible for private persons to retail_ alcoholic drinks in a law-abiding and decent fashion, the State or the municipality may step In. There :s the very real danger, it there is any ctilly-do'lying with the question on the part of the Government thi-» •session, that at next election no-lie-nee will be the rallying cry of the Opposition, and, as in , Canada and the United States, the whole , temperance question will oe lifted out of j its proper pi 1 ace in the sphere of moral reform, and degenerate into a mere political insue. Should such an untoward condition of things be brought about the blame will most ass-medly li'- at the door of the shilly-shally policy of the Seddon Govern- i ment.

Reverse after reverse continues to dog the i steps of the Russian forces. More Rnssian Following hard upon the Uercrses. crushing defeat of General

Stackelburg comes the news of another naval disaster, resulting in the loss of the Russian battleship Peresveit, _ which had on board Admiral Richtomsky and 750 men. Once again Japanese tactics ha\e been triumphant, or, for, according t> Admiral. Togo's report, the remnants of . the Port Arthur squadron were deliberately ] tempted out to sea until thsy fell into the ' hands of a cleverly-planned Japanese anibu&h. It is reported that this latest naval disaster has produced profound dejection, and dismay in St. Petersburg, and again the question is being asked as to whether, ! in the long run, it is possible for Japan tc triumph over Russia. Mr Nenry Norman, an accepted authority on Russia and an eccepted authority on Russia, and, Russian resources, puts the case for the Czar very clearly and very forcibly in a letter to the London Times : — "It cannot be lealised too soon," writes Mr Norman, ''that the war can have but one ending. It is out of the question for Russia to be > defeated by Japan. Such a defeat would be the destruction of Russian prestige for generations : it would be a national humila- . tion too colossal to be even thought of by Russia. If the war must endure for years, if the last Russian regiment must be mobilised, if the last rouble must be spent, if even vast international complications must be faced, and whatever losses and sacrifices must still be suffered', the end will be the same. Russia cannot, and will not, accept such a defeat. Let any Englishman reflect what would be his attitude under corresponding circumstances in his own country." In the broad sense, no do-übt, Mr Norman's view is correct. Russia's reserve forces are enormous, and could she, say, for the next ten years devote herself exclusively to the subjugation of Japan, thei-e could be little doubt as to the ultimate issue. But Russia's responsibilities of empire are so enormous that it is not possible for her to concentrate her entire energies upon any one> given point. Besides which, it is exceedingly doubtful whether the heart of the Russian nation is at one with the Czar and his advisers in prosecuting the conflict in the Far East, and an internal outbreak, involving, perhaps, a revolt amongst discontented soldiery, might at any time pre- i cipitate conditions calculated to bring Russia to her knees.

The prediction of ultimate Russian victory, ' made so dogmatically by Mr Probable Norman, is, of course, based Political on the assumption that Changes. political conditions through-

out Europe and Asia "will, for the next decade, remain much £t.s they are at present. But this is by no means certain. Indeed, the Spectator outlines a list of probabilities involving a perfect nest of political complications, any or ail of which would exercise a profound in- , fluence on the conduct of the present war. ' Suppose, for instance, that the Sultan of ' Turkey were to die, and the Turkish Empire was thrown into a state of disorder. At once would commence a conflict of interests in the Near East which Russia ' could not afford to ignore. Germany, France, Italy, and Austria, to say nothing ' of Great Britain, would all be- tempted to push their claims in Asia Minor ; and were Russia confronted vsith the choice of abandoning her claim to Constantinople and Syrui or of sueing for peace with Japan, who cotfd doubt the result? Another posbiblity is the death of the Emperor of Austria, tc be followed, probably, by a struggle between the Teutonic and the Slavonic elements in the dominions of the Hap&burgs, in which Russia would necessarily be vitally interested. Is it conceivable that Russia is so set upon victory in the Far East as to be willing to saciifibe interests which touch her Empire nearer t home? It is easy to ta"k about a ten i years' w-ir, but if Japan continues to j achieve conquest upon conquest, and sue- j ceecis in firmly establishing herself in Port j Aithur, Vladivostock, and Korea, with a, ' dominating influence over Southern Man- ! churia. it is nearer the mark to conclude that the Russian dream of Asiatic supremacy will never be realised — at all events

in this ceutia-y.

In the event 01 the war being unduly prolonged, what are the chances of intervention? On this point Air Norman waxes ex-

The King and the KaKcr.

ceedingly explicit, after tlws

fashion : —"Now. it may be stated ■without hesitation that Russia' will not accept intervention in any shape or form, and that until whe is victorious she would regard anything beyond the nieie offer of mediation, which she would pol'toly dtcline, as ;in unfriendly act, and would nt once diiect her course taccordingly. What^' then, would be the position of England? Hie answer is easy: She would stand alone, face to face with Russia, with the direct possibility of war under cond't'ons where there would be piactically nothing for our navy to do." But in the event oi intervention it by no means follows tint Great Britain wouM be called upon n play

a '-one hand. A week or two ago, in commenting upon the gratifying understanding recently nirivert nt between France and Great Biitain, we s-tated that this was, to ,x large extent, due to the tact and diplomatic skill of King Edward, and that there wns reason to believe that the King was endeavouring to bung about similar understandings with other European nations. There i% therefore, considerable significance to be attached to the cordial rteeption accoidid by the Kaiser to King J-ldw.ud atKiel, and, taken together with the King's expressed desire to knit still closer the intimate relations and fam ly kinship ol the two nations, it would seem to herald the possibility of an entente cordiale between Geimany and Gieat Britain similar to that now existing between Gieat Britain and France. In this light it is possible to interpret the King's hope that the flags of Great Britain and Germany might float the one beside the other to the most distant times for the maintenance not only ot peace between the two nations, but for the peace of the whole world. It is not improbable, therefore, that in the not very dstant future Great Britain, Germany, and France may decide to unitedly intervene between Japan and Russia, and it is difficult to imagine that Russia could possibly regard such powerful intervention as an overt act : more probably the relationship existing between the royal houses of Russia and England would be utilised by King Edward to bring about some permanent understanding. Should events take the course- we have intimated, there is the likelihood that the Russo-Japanese war may be the last great wai which the world will ever see, in which event the King will be known to posterity as ''King Edward the Peace Maker."