THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2623, 22 June 1904, Page 20

THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKETS.

"W ednesday. The flour market continues in a chaotio condition, and individual millc-rs are reticent as to their actual operations. Quotations arc being 1 mad© locally at £7 5s net for sacks and £7 10s net for 50's, but it is doubtful wh-ether actual Riles are being made at that price. Ln. -jiany instances these quotations have been made to buyers who ajo fully stocked, , and therefore not in a position to buy. Some of the- leading brands are still quoted at £7 15s for sacks ami £8 10a for 50' s usual terms. Tho ?.'i: n i ""•.".:':■; ripply fo ihs '* h>i~'">g price, for although this has been nominally fixed at £7 5?, it is doubtful whether any local miller will ship at that pi ice. and, actual business is passing at from £7 10-3 to £7 15s f.o.b. The Timaru quotation is reported to be £7 10a f.o.b. All this seems to point to the conclusions that the* "iciy low quotations ore beiug circulated simply for the uurnose a£

disturbing trade, and not with a view to business.

Thursday,

The flour market has now assumed a. more settled condition, and a basis of prices has practically be&n arranged. The majority of tlio iocal mills are now quoting on the- basis of £7 5s net for sacks and £8 net for 50's; but for some brands £7 15s for sacks and £8 10s for sOs; less 24 per cent., is being asked. The shipping price varies from £7 5s to £7 10s, f.0.b., according to brand. It is stated that Oamaru flour is being 6old in Invercargill a* £8 per ton delivered at mill door, but so far as can be ascertained no outside brands are offering on the Dunedin market at present.

It is significant that the low quotations for flour are for immediate delivery only, and n.i miller will book forward at these rates. This seems to point to the conclusion that the bottom of the market has now been reached, and that an improvement in prices may- shortly be expected.

With the approach of July and August, almost the most critical months in the world's wheat market, it appears probable that the shortage in American wheat will make itself felt and -a considerable hardening in prices take place. Hence close attention will be paid for the next few weeks to tho reports of the American situation, which is likely to prove the controlling factor in the wheat markets of the world. Under date London, May 13, "Beerbohm" reviews the situation as follows : —

There has been a slight improvement in the ■wheat trade during the past -week, but not much activity, except in new Indian wheats, in which a very large business has been done both ior the United Kingdom and the Continent, the low prices attracting buyers for later shipments, in view of the very unfavourable character of the Washington Bureau's crop report. It is a- fact, however, that neither in America nor in Europe has this report, which "is described officially as the most tmiiormly unfavourable ever recorded, had any immediate effect. To some extent it had possibly already been discounted, but it is tolerably clear that the trade is determined to ignore factors bearing upon the future — as this xeport most certainly does — with such a large quantity -afloat as it now se»s. When the weekly shipments to Europe fall below a million" quarters per week, instead of the 1,300,000 quarters per week lately shown, the market will consider the American position •worthy of more attention.

Dealing with the Washington Bureau's report in detail, "Beerbohna" remarks: —

As we expected, however, the abandoned area is very large — namely, about five million acres, »nd ihe total crop can hardly fail to be seriously short of last year's yield of 4-01 million bushels. We suggest 350 million as a maximum indication, which, with a possible 250 million of ; spring wheat would give a total crop of 600 million; and leave only about 100 millioiia for export, compared with about 135 million in the present season, and 203 million last season. The report significantly adds that in no previous year has there been, such a uniformity of unfavourable crop conditions as this year. There are, in. consequence, some authorities who predict a crop of only 550 million bushels, which ■would mean p-ractically no export surplus for Europe next season. It is interesting to note that at this lime last year the May report of the Washington Bureau was taken by some j to indicate a probable crop of 850 million bushels, and we ourselves suggested 775 millions as the possible yield ; the actual crop has turned out a judging by the exports aoid_ the : l<iim»ry receipts, to be little over 600 millions, j although the final official estimate was 637 millions. If it should happen that the crop this year does not reach 600 million bushels, it will show a remarkable falling off in three short years, for in 1901 the crop was about 750 million bushels, and tho export 235 million bushels. The following is a. comparison of the returns of the past "Eix years based on the census returns for 1899: — "Wintee Wheat.

* Estimated. 1 Winter and spiing wheat combined. The Australian wheat market remains steady at from 2s lid to 3s ; the latest sales of wheat cargoes cabled being at 28s 10£ d to 29s 4|d. There is very little animation in the local wheat market. In the disturbed state of the flour market millers are not inclined to operate to any extent. On the other hand, there is comparatively little prime- milling ■wheat offering, and the few lines available have been readily taken at quotations. Business during the week has been done at ■ up to 2s B£d on trucks at northern, stations ; | ljut the majority of holders are fnVing up to 2s 10d on tiuclvs for prime milling and Tuscan, whilst some declare their intention of holding for 3s. The general feeling ie that wheat has touched bottom, and will gradually improve. j

The Christchurch Press reports: "No ■wheat is offering beyond a few odd lots, and there is very little inquiry on the part of miners, who do not care to buy while the milling business 13 ia its present unsettled.

state. The Corinthio is loading a quantity of wheat for London, chiefly on behalf of an Ashburton firm."

The Press makes a calculation of the grain position in the colony based on the following figures : —

As Canterbury and Otago and Southland are the principal gram-growing districts of the colony, and taking the Canterbury yields as. an index of the yie'd for the whole colony, and applying these figures to the returns of Ihe areas under crop as published by the Government, the following may be considered an approximate statement of the yield for the colony : — Wheat.

Apparent surplus on March 1, 1905 . . 2,807,409 Six bushels per head per annum is the amount allowed in the Government estimates, but in some quarters this is thought too liberal an allowance, 4\ bushels being nearer the mark. However, the Government estimate appears to work out fairly well. In the above estimate no exporls or imports are taken into account since October 31, 1903, but the imports have been small, and hardly worth taking into consideration. Shipments from the colony from November 1, 1903, to May 31, 1904, amounted to only 372,000 bushels, leaving on June 1 nearly 2,500,000 bushels. Upon the whole the estimated surplus on March 31, 1905, given above, will probably be under, rather than over, the official estimate. ,

The shipment of oats from October 31, 1903 to May 31, 1904, amounted to 1,480,000 bushels, leaving nearly 19,000,000 bushels of oats on June 1, less the quantity used locaHy since October 31. 1903. The shipments have not been heavy, but there are about 3,000,000 bushels less available this year as compared with last y^ar.

The shipments of barley this year have not been so heavy as last year. i It is difficult to ascertain the exact position of the flour market, as there is a good deal of " bluff " going on between individual millers. It is pretty well admitted that tho present " cutting " ii being carried ou in a half-hearted fashion, that no miller will book forward, and that all sales are for immediate delivery only. As the niajo- j rifcy of the bakers have only limited storage j area, this necessarily limits operations, i with one exception all the local mills are ', now quoting Hour on the basi? of £7 Ss net; for sacks and £8 net for 50's, but they ' evince no intense anxiety to sell at these rates. Tho remaining mailer keeps hk quotation firm at £7 15s for sacks and £8 10s fo : ' 50's, usual terms, and declares his deter- ' mirsation not to go below this price. The ! shipping price is nominally £7 5s f.0.b.. but it ig difficult to book at under £7 10s, f o.b. Sj far as can be ascertained no otitside brands arc offering on the Dunedin market. The offal market is at sixes and sevens, and quotations vary eon^'derably. An Australian inquiry for bran has sprang np, resulting; in tho first business from the Commonwealth for many month*. The pi ice v.-as a low one — 37s 6d per ton f.o.b., — but there are indications that the price will improve. This has had a steadying effect upon the local market, and "cutting" is not now so rife. TL-o nominal lee.l quotation is fro"i £?. Es to £2 10s per ton. Follard is scarce, and in good demand at £4 f.o.b. for shipping, and from £4- 5s to £410s for local orders. Chick wheat has not a groat deal of attention, and quotations for good whole fowl feed lemain at 2s 2d to 2s 3d. There is no impiovement in the outlook for oats, and if the cstnnato that there are still gome 19,000,000 bjASJiels &Y<ulable m

the colony there is no prospect of any improvement in prices. Really good bright samples aro scarce, and have good inquiry at full rates, especially long Tartans and bright Gartons for seed purposes. Sound feed oats are nominally worth from Is 3d to Is 4d, ex store.

Oatmeal is quoted at £8 10s per ton for local orders, the price for shipment ranging from £7 10s to £8 f.0.b., according to brand. Pearl barley is quoted at £13 per ten.

The potato market still drags, and 35s is the top price now obtainable for prime Oamaru Derwents, extra choice samples realising up to 37s 6d per ton.

Tliero is nothing new to report in the local dairy produce market, and current cii.ctaiions remain as follows: — Butter: Dairy, 6^d to 7d; salt milled, 7£d to 8d ; farmers' separatoi*, B^d to 9d ; factory, 9Jkl to lOd ; first-grade factory, lOd for bulk and 10^d for pats. Cheese : Akarca, 4|d : factory medium 0 , Md to sd ; prime old factory, sid. Owing to heavy supplies forward the price of eggs has again dropped, Is 5d to Is 6d per dozen being to-day's quotation, for fresh and lid per dozen for preserved.

Poultry is in heavy supply at the following rates: — Best rcosbers, 3s to 3s 6d ; rejects, 2s to 2s 6d ; hens, 2s 3d to 2s 6d ; ducks, 3s to 3s 6ci ; geese. 4s 6d to ss ; turkeys — gobblers 7d, hens sd.

Pigs continue to come forward freely, and the market has again eased. Baconers (up to 1601b) are quotc3 at 4-d to 4£d per Ib ; over- weights, 3d to 3^d.

Hams arc quoted au 3d io BJ>d, and baccn at 7d ro 7^d for prime roll*. Piirae heavy oaten shoaf chaff is selling at up to £2 15s per ton

Saturday.

Latest London cables state that, acting in sympathy with American, English, and Continental wheat, markets are dull but easier. Tho new wheat season of the world is now just opening, and within the next 11 weeks, therefore, the general conditions of the world's wheat markets for the first portion of the harvest year, from September 1, 1904, to August 31, 1805, will have been ascertained. Owing to the -extension of the cultivation of wheat to various parts of the world a forecast of probable harvest conditions is by no mean 3so easy a matter as it was some years ago, and, indeed, nobody would cax'e to venture*" a serious opinion until Atigust has opened, when it would be qualified. But the market nowadays is not easily influenced by far away possibilities, but is more affected by the immediate surroundings. The reported dullness, therefore, of the English, Continental, and Ainex-ican markets on the eve of the commencement of the great harvests may be taken as an indication of an opinion that prospects are regarded as favourable, although it is more than likely that conditions, especially in tho United States, may alter as time goes on.

It may be of interest to note the order of the world's harvest cycle. Harvesting has already commenced in the United States in Kansas, to bo closely followed by Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas, these five States contributing a considerable proportion of the world's wheat supply. The Californian harvest is reaped at about the same time. July and early August is harvest time in the Northern American States, including Oregon and Washington, .-is well as in France. Southern Russia, Italy, Spain, and Southern England. In late Augusb and September Northern England, the lowlands of Scotland, and Canada furnish their quota. Then come the Australian, New Zealand, and the Argentine harvests, to be followed in March of n-ext year by the Indian harvests.

As explaining the recent slump in the London butter market, the Grocer of April 30 points out that the arrivals of colonial butter in England during the first three months of the year amounted to 350,265cwt, against 158,503cwfc for the first three months of 1903 ; while the arrivals of foreign butter were 774,765cwt, against 816,191civt. The net increase in the total quantity imported during the throe months was 150,336cwt. At the same time, further supplies of Australasian butter were in prospect until an unusually late period of the season, and it was considered that the outlook was one of only moderate prices, especially during the summer months. The Grocer comments on the situation as follows: —

Now that fresh grass butter pioduced fioni English and lush pasHirages is about commencing-, there does not seem, to be much chance of puces going higher, but lather the reverse; for, although thj Australasian supply, wihich ih'a's domina.tc.'cTl the position ,of butter all along, may be expected to dimmish in the ensuing months, it n^vcithcless pron:ises io be above th«s avstnge, aad to be spun out to a later peuod of th° <-c?soa than usual The interval between tho shutting off of one &oues of shipments of butter fiom tlie Antipodes in 1903-1 and the opening of another in 1004-3 vail tliu? bo gieatly shortened, and will be the main r«nso of awkwaid accumulations of old season's butters ,v cold Ptorege. These, !£ liwfc coal at once, T\hen ficshly landed, vill have to be got ud of aftenvardls, and peihaps at a time when, tho conditions of the maikeC are /more unfavourable.

Ryeg v ass is climbing up steadily — 281b seed i- worth 3s 9d to 3s lOd, and 291b seed 4s; heavier weights are unobtainable.

Cocksfoot is advancing. Good machinedre&Ei?d 171b is quoted at s£d, and 161b at sd; 181b is unobtainable. " "

PEICE OP FLOUR IN CHEISTCHURCH (Fkom Oub Own Corbespondbnt.)

CHKISTCHUKCH, June 15. The Fiourmillers' Association's quotations' to-day are:— Sacks, £7 10s; 1001b bags, X 8; 501b bags, £8 ss ; 251b bags, £8 10s. Shipping prices are 5s less m each ca-se.

Bushels. Amount of wheat on hand on October 31, 1903 '2,245,299 Estimated consumption, 875,000 persons, November 1, 1903, to February 28, 1904 .. .. 1,750,000 Leaving on March 1, 1904, without new crops 495,299 Area for threshing, 230,346 acres, at 35 bushels per acre . . . . . . . . 8,062,110 Available for all purposes on March 1,1901 8,557,409 Estimated requirements for seed (say, 250,00 a acres, ■at 2 bushels per acre) . . 500,000 Estimated consumption of 875,000 persons, at 6 bushels per head per annum, from March 1, 1904, to February 28, 1905 2,250,000 5,750,000

KJJSSS. Bushels. .mount of oats on hand on October 31, 1903 3,976,382 -rea for threshing, 409,390 acres, at 40 bushels per acre 16,375,600 20,351,982

Bap. lev. Bushels, .motuit of barley on hand on October 31 > 1903 063)0290 63)029 L rea tor threshing, 34,681 acres, at 40 biishels per acre 1,387,240 -r x , „ 1,670,269 .bast year s figures were : >n hand October 31, 1902.. 254,632 .rea for threshing, 27,921 acres, at 40£ bushels .. 1,136,232 1,390,864 Increase 1903-01 over 1902-03 .. .. 279,405

Condition (100 being perfec- Yield Yield lion). At per (milApril 1. harvest. Acreage acre, lions). 1904 . 76.5 — 27,053,000 — "350,009 L 903 97.3 +74.7 32,846,000 12.20 401,635 1902 . 78.7 +80.0 28,581,426 14.40 411,789 L9Ol 91.7 +82.7 28,749,000 14.90 429,675 1900.. 82.1 +69.8 — — 375,000 L 699.. 77.9 +70.9 30.800,000 11.50 358,000