THE SHEEP QUESTION.

Otago Witness, Issue 2579, 19 August 1903, Page 7

THE SHEEP QUESTION.

(Austialian Meat Trsdes Journal.)

The New Zealand theep returns show a decrease ot 1,340,000, consequent upon an jnci(.a.-ed export of 1,200,000. For three ' ydiii prior to this year the numbers of i-'noip have remained practically stationary at about 20,000,000, the exports, local consumption, and death rate being about 5,700,000 per annum. During the past year i ho cxnort-. increased to nearly 5,000,000, entailing a drain on the flocks of 7,000,000, and resulting in a shrinkage of 1.340,000. .Should exports continue at tho same rate, ■ it h evident that the reduction in numbers next year will show a still greate-r lo. e s j a- the fact of the numbers having lcmaincd j m a slate of stability for the three previous I yeais indicates that the maximum of production, has been, approximately, attained, and that increased exports must mean decreased flockd. No doubt the sheep owners in New Zealand will take the necessary J bteps to avoid any further reduction by conserving their owes and ewo lambs to a ' greater extent. This must mean a redue-

tion of exports. ) It is iij^ossiblc to compare the position in' Australia with that in. New Zealand accurately on the 6ame lines of argument, as the conditions are so different. Australia certainly requires at least 40,000,000 more theep to rertock her pastures, and Australia has nearly five times the population.

I to feed and a heavier annual death rate . to provide for. Tho New Zealand returns show that local requirements and death rat© absorb about 2,000,000 per annum. It is .therefore mot an excessive estimate jto reckon on 12,000,000 per annum as a mini-num number for the earns requirements in Australia, estimating the consumption of mutton at 1001b per heael per annum, and 5 per cant, leath rate. Taking the breeding ewes now alive in Australia at about 20,000.000, and allowing a 60 per cent, increase, wo have 12,000,000 lambs, which appear to be inadequate to satisfy the urgent requirements for restocking, let alono providing any surplus for export. But exports to a small extent _aro going on now, and will attain considerable proportions when the fat lambs come forward. It "s expected that Australia, will export thb season not less iji&n 500,000 lambs in addition to sheop. Where docs restocking com© in under sueli conditions? It is a serious position, as tho tenants of the Crown cannot afford to pay rent on unbooked land 7 nor can free ho Idea's pay interest on their mortgagee. Possibly the scarcity and dearness of stock may induce a great increase of agricultural " operations, but then agaia it must bo for export, as it is no use growing fodder for local use without tho stock to consume it. Can we compele successfully under Australian conditions with other grain and fodder-growing- countries? We fear not.