THE BREADSTUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKET.

Otago Witness, Issue 2511, 30 April 1902, Page 17

THE BREADS TUFFS AND PRODUCE MARKET.

Tuesday. There is no alteration in the wheat market, which still keeps firm. There is a difference of from Id to 2d per bushel between buyer and seller. Buyers are not inclined to go over 4s 3d per bushel f.o.b. Lyttelton, for prim© new wheat ; while holders are asking anything from 4s 4d upwards. Advices from Australia state that the unusually early period of the season, at which such a surprising advance in wheat has taken place has actually led to shippers unload- ] ing -cargoes already shipped for export and reselling them for Home consumption. The | cargoes thus unloaded, together with the ' cancellations of charters which were recently reported, represent a total of between 100,000 and 150,000 bags, which would probably have left Australia M the market had remained at a parity of European prices, and all shipping engagements had been fulfilled and the vessels had actually sailed. One remarkable instance, as showing what the rise in price represents, is worth quoting. A cargo wliieh was placed on the Ire•dftle at Sydney was unloaded, the whole of the wheat having been sold locally. The charter was cancelled, and other employment found for the ship. But after providing for the heavy loss consequent on the cancellation a considerable net profit was made. On the other hand, had the ship been despatched with her cargo to England a loss would have accrued. This incident illustrates the remarkable change which has taken place in the Sydney wheat market. Wednesday. There is no sign of weakening in the "wheat market. A Dunedin buyer was to-day-offered a line of 1500 sacks of prime old wheat at 4s 4d on trucks north of Oamaru. In order to test the market, he wired an offer for the line a.t 4s 2d, and received the laconic reply, f " Wheat sold," presumably at the original quotation. At the lowest calculation, prime milling wheat is worth in store Dunedin from 4s 7d to As 9d. The ouo disturbing factor in, the market has been the receipt by at least two firms of cables from Sydney offering San Francisco flour at from £7 17s 6d to £8 ss, c.i.f. and c., Auckland. At first the news was discredited, it being argued that if American wheat could not be landed here at les>s than 4s 3d per bushel it was not likely that flour would be quoted at such a low price. However, subsequent inquiries revealed the fact that beyond a doubt the quotations referred ito had beon received. One offer, subject to cablp confirmation, was for San Francisco flour — Stars, Bakers extra. — May, June, July shipment, by steamer. £7 17s 6d. c.i.f and c., Auckland. The other offer, for prcsurn abiy a better brand, was £3 ss, c.i.i. and c.. Auckland, for 20001b gross. It would ccst at least 15s per ton to bring this flour down from Auckland, which, with the £1 duty, means, that according to these quotations San Friocisco flour could be lauded m Dunedin at from £9 12? 6d to £10 per ton, or flora 30s to 37s 6d holow the prices at present fixed by the F!ourmilU*rs' Association. As one miller tersely put it, "If there k anything in these quotations, then we are .paying a good deal too much for our wheat." In confirmation of the correctness of the«: prices, Sydney advices dated the 10th inst etate that cables have been received quoting Galifoieiian flour at £8, c.i.f and c. Ou the other hand, Melbourne advices of the same date rtate that wheat was offered by cable at 22s 6d per quarter f.o.b. San FranciECO, for shipment this month, equal to 2s 93d per bushel. This, with freight, exgiensee, and duty added, would bring the landed cost here to close on the figure we Jiave previously mentioned — viz., 4s 3d per bushel. Sydney advices also state that Manitoba flour can be landed there at £11 5s to £11 10s, and that parcels can be booked ahead at those rates. But a very important fact to be takeo anto account is the further rise in the Home market of Is 6d, which, added to the 9d previously reported, makes an advance of 2s 3d per quarter— equal to about 5Jd per Jjushel. If the world's wheat market begins ±o .advance, what, then, becomes of cheap American quotations 1 / In the absence of more definite information, it in not probable, however, that anything will be done for the moment in the way of importation The cable inquiries which have been made will probably result in pll necessary details coming to hand by the next San Francisco mail, until which time intending speculator:, are likely to hold their hands. Californian flour is practically eji unknown, gnifr"***-* 7 <a this r""***- sad

therefore, the almost caution is cure to be observed before operating. Reports concerning the opening out of the crops up north are somewhat more encouraging, but all doings seem to point to a very large proportion of th© grain harvested being or^y fit for fowl feed. Inferior qualities, the crice for which rules high at present, are therefore likely to Tecede, but first-claes samples should command close up to current rates for some time at least. The following figures, compiled from the revised figures issued by the Agricultural Department in February last, should give some idea of the probable shortage as compared with previous years; —

The wheat acreage is here shown as 43,000 less than last season, whilst the estimated average per acre is also much lower. In all grain statistics, the uncertain quantity is the quantity on hand. When the market rises, wheat turns up from ail sorts of unexpected Eources and throws out the most Careful calculations. However, the following should to some extent represent the position: — Bushels. The quantity of wheat on hand as on 31st October last was 3,182,000 Estimated yield 4,036,550 Total 7,268,550 Estimated consumption from October, 1901. to February, 1903 — 1 year 4 months . " 6,560,000 Seed for, say, 165,000 acres at 2 bushels per acre . . 330,000 6.890,000 Estimated surplus 378,550 Thus, even had the harvest been a good one, the surplus would have been very small, and under present conditions there seems every prospect of a considerable deficit — at any rate so far as milling wheat is concerned. " Beerbohm," in the Evening Corn Trade List of February 23, writing with respect to European wheat markets and values, says: — The country which has the controlling power over prices — viz., America— having shown unexpected weakness during the past week, the European markets have followed suit, and a very dull feeling has prevailed, prices having given way about 6d per quarter, in spite of very moderate shipments. The Continental demand, it is true, is still in evidence, and our latest cable advices from Argentina confirm the lowest estimates of that crop, only about 2,250,000 quarters baing probably available for export this year, which would be the lowest total since 1892 (with one exception, 1897), as the following record shows : — Argentina wheat exports — 1902 (probable), 2,250,000 quarters; 1901 (actual), 4,150,000; 1900 (actual), 9.200,000; 1893 (actual) 7,900,000; 1898 (actual), 2,900,000; 1897 (actual), 225,000; 1896 (actual), 2,600,000; 1895 (actual), 4,603,000; 1894 (actual), 7,400,000; 1533 (actual), 4,600,000; 1892 (actual), 2,250.000. Notwithstanding these factors, however, the knowledge of a big surplus still existing in America and in Manitoba, and the doubts entertained as to the ability of the Continental 'countries to absorb their expected proportion of the immenss quantity of Vhite wheat afloat for orders, combine to check buyers, who will be probably slow to move until something more definite be known with regard to the French crop, or until Germany, by reason of her 3til! large requirements, leads the way. It is pointed out also, by a carefu] observer of these matters, that the world's wheat production, as shown by us in our last review, has been far too large during the past four years, and much m exc;ss of the ordinary consumption, points which must inevitably tend to keep prices, at any late, moderately low. This correspondent claims, in fact, that if, as we showed la=t week, thd average wheat production in the world, from 1890 to 1893 (four years), was 297,000,000 quprters, and ia the following lOvr years 305,150.000 quarters, and that;the c c supplies were sufficient to meet requirements with the aid of thr reserve stocks, without seriously ?ft*ectmg vulues, then the average production in the past four years, which has been 342.500,000 quarteia per annum, must, havo been far too large This, however, is not an entirely correct deduction, for it will be remembered thai m 1897-8, following three years of i"si'ffici.-.t production, prices reached the <W=> Unlit, but in !«9S-1?99 rapidly dropped to \he 30s point because of the er.ormous production in that season, from the effects of whic-h, in far*, the markets have probab'y hardiy yet recovered. Thumla3 r . The quotations mentioned yesterday as having been made for Californian flour have had a distinctly quietening effect upon the wheat market, aud, although a good many lin"=; of new wheat are now offering, but little business is reported. There i=? a difference of between 2d and 3d between buyer ar>d seller, and at pre=ont neither feels inclined to give way. Any smail lots of prime old milling wheat offpring are readily taken on the basis of 4s 7d to 4s 8d in store Dunedin . but, for the most part, millers having satisfied their immediate requirements, are content to await developments. It «eems extromoly unlikely that the wheat market will go any hi-eher, and the probabilities are that prices will recede slightly. The rumoxir having been circulated that the price of br«»ad is to be raised to 8d the 4ib loaf from Monday next, we are authorised by the Master Bakers* Association to state that no such advance is contemplated, but, on the contrary, they are in hopes that the wheat market will come back sufficiently to enable them to reduce the present price. i As a matter of fact, the advance to 7d has meant thf loss of a considerable amount of trade, as housewives are going in for taking less bread and baking more scones, etc. Produce of all kinds has been coming forward more freely within the last few days, and next week is likely to see a considerable decline in the high prices ruling. Particularly does this apply to fhaff, which i* hard to quit at pre=ent rates. There are. however, no prime protatoes offering, and Derwents are stall v orth from £5 10* to £5 15s. Friday. Farmers in North Otasfo. have during the last day or two considfrablv modified their ideas ooncenime wheat. There is now no talk about 4s 6d on truck c . and hne^ of new wheat, for which 4s 4d was atked a couDle of da.is *£fi. sere sold xfisterdax M

4s 2d. It is probable that early next week the price will be down to 4s Id on trucks or even 4s. Still, at these prices millers, having filled their immediate requirements, are not inclined to operate, for they think they will do no worse by waiting, and they may save a little. On the other hand, some holders incline to the idea that this is only a temporary lull in the market. To-day's Canterbury quotation for prime milling wheat was 4s 3d f.o.b. Lyttelton. Both Bond and Crawford streets have been liberally served with cables quoting Californian flour, most of which emanate from a Sydney source. The prices are on the basis of £8 per ton ci.f. and c. Auckland for May-June shipment by steamer, and were emphasised by the remark " American market hardening." as an incentive to close with the offer. In the absence, however, of definite information a3 to the quality of the floxir offered no actual business is reported. The oat market is a very strong one, a-nd the samples offering do not sneak too well for the quality of the crop. For every really prime sample there are from six to. seven inferior ones. A first-class milling line was sold to-day at 2s Bd, the top price so far this season. Avices from Melbourne state that oats there are fetching 3s 3|d, and oatmeal has gone up to £21 10s. Inquiries aTe being made for New Zealand oatmeal, and it as believed that, despite the Federal tariff. New oatmeal could fo-day be sold in Melbourne. There is snch a "brisk demand from Sydney at present for hulled oats tha% the oatmeal millers are kept working njght and day to supply orders, -and this state of things is likely to continue for some months. Unless oats advance, the price of oatmeal locally is not expected to go beyond £14 10s. the present price. The Flourmillers' Association's prices remain unchanged at £11 10s per ton for sacks. £12 for 100' s. £12 5s for 50' s. and £12 10s for 25' s. Bran and pollard both continue very ccarc°, and are quoted at £4 103 to £5 10s respectively. With the weakening of the wheat market there is every probability of a reduction in these rates. Saturday. Advice has been received in Dunedin that a Sydney firm is despatching a representative to this colony for the solo rurp»se of introducing Manitoba flour to the New Zealand bakers. Wonderful stories are told of the bread-producing qualities of this flour, which always commands a higher price in the Sydney market than the besi local brands. It is said that the Sydney bakers use the Manitoba flour for mixing with the New South Wales flour with the very best results and that once having tried it they invariably ask for it. According to quotations just received, Manitoba flour could b*» landed in Dunedin at £10 15s per ton, duty ppid. or 15s per ton lower than the Flour Millers' Association price. It is more than probable that this news, which is no mere rumour. but comes from an authoritative source, will bring about a reduction in the Flour Millers' Association's price list, more especially as the wheat market is decidedly weakening. That price list stands at nrcsent at £11 10s per ton for sacks, £12 for 100' s, £12 5s for 50' s, and £12 10s for 25's. Bran, £4 10s; and pollard, £5 10s. The publication of the official estimate of the South Australian wheat harvest, coupled ■with the unsatisfactory intelligence from New South Wales that the statist's estimate there* is much over the mark, greatly strengthens the wheat position in tho Commonwealth. The South Australian harvest only totals 8.012,762 bushels, or 3,240,386 bushels less than for the previous season, and over 1,000,000 bushels less than late expectations. Following is the estimate of available Australian supplies, compared wiM

Exports were expected to total 13,000,000 bushels, but tho rise in price has reduced the quantity. In 1900-1301 Australia corsumed or used for seed about 25,000,000 bushels of wheat, which, if equalled this year, would leave only abort 10,175 000 bu=hel& for export High r;jre* ter.d to reduce comurr-ptiou. however, a^d in this way supplies may prove Mifiitiont to meet requirements, but there will be nothing to spare. Monday. The wheat market may well be described as a Chinese puzzle. The threatened importation of American wheat aud flour has had a distinctly deterrent effect upon buyers, but, at the time, holders are not inclined to give way to any extent. Nominal Quotations are on the basis of 4s 3d f.o.b. Lyttelton and from 4s 2d to 4s 4d on trucks north of Oamafu, but practically no business is doing. Country millors, who have no freight to pay are picking up small lines of primp wheat at these rates, but Dunedin buyers are hold'ng on". The determining factor, after al!, rciu-^t be the trend of the London market. Such a condition of thing;-, a« wheat selling in London at 3s 9d zs»d in Dunedin at 4* od cannot lontj continue, and in a fpw wepks' time ijrice? must Ipvpl out. Whothrr London will level up or Dunedin will le\el dovn is the puzzle which is troubling a good many people at present Despite the many quotations received for 'Frisco and Manitoba flour, considerable scepticism exists as to its actually being placed on this market in any appreciable qu2ntit3", and th<- attitude o«tc-nsib!v taken up by the miller^ i= that they will bolievc it when they «cc it. The Christchurch Prt^s is responsible for tV>e statement that a parcel of Anifrican flour lias boon sold for deh\ery in Wellington on May 20 at £10 4s 6d per ton (wharfage and duty paid), but the quality of the flour is not stated. Should Manitoba flour once gam a foothold in New Zealand it is more than probable that the Sydney e\per:ence will be r* peated. and that it will continue in steady demand at coirsiderably above the price of the local article. Already the Melbourne market has been invaded, and latest ad\ice= state that known brands of Manitoba flour — -uch as "Lake of the Woodx"' — have sold un to as high as £12 10* t\ direct shipments, and though bakers are new to the strong Manitoba, flour, a trade of no mean dimensions is expected for special baking- purposes. Other brands of Manitoba flour are offering at from £8 11s to £8 15s e.i f Melbourne, a' against local floui at £9 10«-. The situation m Australia at the present time is well summed up in the following jfrfr.raot. frnny f^__ lfi ta Rvfl tin.y^ TPiTtn\t .— "

high prices current for wheat and flour have naturally directed attention to the possibility of reimporting Australian wheat or flour from London, where it is realising comparatively low rates. Several cables have passed between here and London on the subject. It is thought that as a sailing vessel would take several months to arrive here the risk would be too great, and that there is more likelihood of flour being imported in steamers instead. The latest price quoted for Australian flour in London was 20s 6d to 21s pr>r sack. The former price is equivalent to £7 6s 5d per ton f.o.D. London. On a 30s steamer freight, with 5 per cent, primag-e added, and including wharfage, earfcap-e, insurance, and exchange charges, this nriee gives a ladd-down cost of £9 9s Id Sydney. At 21s the cost would be £9 12s lOd on the same basis. These prices are, of course, too high to admit of business being done at present, and probably the recent imposition of duties on wheat and flour -would make it less «asy to reimport supplies tihat were landed in Great Britain prior to the duties being doclared. The'-othe'- question arises as to whether any obstacles would be raised by the Customs authorities in readmitting such flour free of duty after it had been actually landed in England. This was done in Victoria some years ago, and the importers did very well out of the enterprise." Another development is the demand from Australia for mill offal. Dunedin have offered up to £5 per ton foV bran for shipment to Australia, but as the supply available is barely sufficient for local consumption no business has resulted. The probable effect, however, will bo that the price of bran may advance from £4- 10s to the figure offered for export. The oat market is exceedingly strong, and sales of prime milling are again reported at 2s Bd. The demand for shipment is .active, and quotations have been asked for 15,000 bags of oats for shipment the first week in May and another IS,OOO bags for shipment the first week in June. Such is the scarcity of oats offering, however, that it will be difficult to fill such orders. Advices from Melbourne state that it is becoming increasingly difficult to fill orders for local oats both for home wants and inter-State demands, a state of affairs brought about by over- exportation from a crop over 40 per cent, less than in the previous season. With the continuance of the South African demand, therf are all the elements of a further advance.

Acres. bushels, per acre, rheat . 1902 . 163,462 .. 4,036.550 .. 25. .. 1901 .. 206,465 .. 6,527,154 .. 31-61 '', .. 1900 .. 263,749 .. 8,581,898 ..'31.81 .. 1899 .. 399,034 .. 13,073,416 . 32.76 .. 1898 . 315,801 .. 5,670,017 . 17.95 iats . 1902 . 405,924 .. 13,801,416 . 34. .. 1901 . 449,534 .. 19,085 837 . 42.45 .. 1900 398,243 .. 16,325,832 . 40.99 „ .. 1699 .. 417,320 .. 16,511,388 .. 39.5S „ . 169S . 354,819 .. 9 735.391 . 27.44 iarley .. 1902 26,511 .. 742,392 . 2S. „ . 1901 . 30,831 .. 1,027,651 .. 33.33 „ .. 1900 . 48,003 .. 1,585,145 .. 33.02 „ .. 1899 . 45,671 .. 1,677,903 .. 36.73 „ . . J.B9S . 29,920 . . 709,874 . . 23.72

he previous season s crop: — Yield. Estimated for 1900-1901. 1901-1902. Bushels. Bushels. Victoria . ... 17,847,321 -. 12.113,000 Sew South Wales . 16,173,771 .. 12,000,000 3ueens]axn3 . . 1,194,038 .. 1,100,000 South Australia .. 11,253,148 .. 8,012,762 Western Australia .. 774,176 .. 800.000 rasmania 1,110,421 .. 1,150,000 Totals 48,352,925 .. 35,175,762 Total decrease, 13,177,163 bu=Lels.