PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2467, 26 June 1901, Page 74

PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

THE COMING NATION IS •? .One of my correspondents flatters me by saying tha* he thinks I am a sound journalist — a title I haven't the slightest idea of annexing, for this column is my pastime just as striplings take to football— and then asks me which I think to be the coming nation. Rather a large order, isn't it? And Ido not care to presume so far as to give anything like a decided opinion upon such, a speculative subject. Still, as most of us have our ideas on subjects connected with our reading or everyday life, and as ignorance is often the first essential • in discussing anything, I do not mind saying a word or two upon the question put to me by my correspondent.

Perhaps some of my readers have heard of a celebrated racer called Eclipse — I know nothing about racing, but that doesn't matter — which no horse could keep level with. One day his owner said that for a bet he would place the field exactly, and the bet being taken up he replied, "Eclipse first, the rest nowhere," which farmed out to be perfectly true. lam told that, in every classic race, there is a mark at a specified distance behind the .winning post, and that any liorse behind that mark when the winner catches the judge's eye. though second or third in order, is said to be nowhere. Now, if my correspondent had asked a journalist after Trafalgar aaid Waterloo to place the coming nations, he would probably have said : "Great Britain first, and the next noiwhere." But can that be said now?

In Europe the supremacy seems to be among Great Britain, Germany, and Russia/ — you see I leave France out ; in Asia, 'Japan and China must be taken account of ; and then there is the United States, which will in all probability dominate the New World. At the beginning of the century the white population of the British Umpire was 20,000,000, or less ; and now $ Stffriß a* about 60,000^000^ and these

millions control some 350,000,000 of coloured people. A hundred years ago the United Sta/tes contained about 5,300,000, and now it contains about 80,000,000, of whom say 12,000,000 are coloured. Combine these and we have somewhere about 125,000,000 of an Eng-lish-speaking race, far outstripping in increase anj' other nation of European stock ; and these control about 360,000,000 ot coloured people, making a grand total of somewhere about 485,000,000 owning An-glo-Saxon allegiance. But why class the two as one? Carnegie, in his Gospel of Wealth, says that in a crisis the Uo will be found together. The question has often been asked and answered, Does America hate Britain? Carnegie says that there are two kinds of hatred— "one deep, permanent, generally racial^ which creates hereditary antipathy, and renders the parties natural enemies ; the other only temporary, and skin-deep — indignation and resentment aroused by specific questions, which pass with their settlement, leaving no serious estrangement behind." He then instances several causes of irritation between Great Britain and the United States, and then adds : "But deeper than these causes of irritation there does lie at the core of the national heart of the Republic a strong and ineradicable stratum of genuine respect, admiration, and affection for the old home. The pride of race is always there at the bottom — latent indeed, in quiet times, bub decisively &hown in supreme moments, when stirred by great issues which a-ffect the safety of the old home and involve the race. The stoongest sentiment in man, the real motive which at the crisis determines his a-ction in international affairs, is racial. Upon this tree grow the one language, one religion, one literature, and one law which bind men together and make them brothers in time of need as against men of other races." Broadly speaking, then, the Anglo-Saxon race is the coining Power. If it is asked which of the t%vo speaking^ the English language is going to be in the van, I am afraid that I must reply that the time is coming when the United States will show Great Britain where the rear is. Her growth in population, trade, and settled territory — the last judged by density— has been in a greater ratio than Great Britain's, as far as I can remember the trend of statistics. France I leave out, because she has a stationary, if not a decreasing, population. Three centuries ago, Spain was easily first of the world-empires : 1898 saw her burial. Will the twentieth century see France die? What about Germany? I should not wonder to see her absorb Denmark and Holland, and a part of Austria, and possibly, aifter a war with France, Belgium also. The marvellous evolution of the German Empire during the past 50 years makes almost anything possible.

In "Lest We Forget," Stead says that there is onty one other great racial phencmenon worthy to be mentioned beside the immense expansion of the Englishspeaking world, and that is the growth of Russia. When Nelson won Trafalgar Russia was a comparatively unknown and barbarous region, with a population of, say, 36,000,000 : but vow she contai is about 130,000,000, ha<= a frontier almost co-terminous with India, and for some 8000 miles frontiers the Chinese Empire. In war the whole world could not do much more thar inconvenience her, for her territory is so solid, and the Empire so self-contained that phe is invulnerable. Then, too, she can move with the irresistible force of a glacier. Ihe coming race will have to reckon with Russia. The Crimean war checked her southward advance for the time, and directed her energies to the Central and Far East. It may yet be that Russian troops at Pekin will win Constantinople without firing a *hot. Will Russia, then, be the coming nation? If Sir Robert Hart's leading of the Chinese awakening and his forecast are anything near the maik. the Chinese will, during the century, bs a disturbing influence of a very serious character. As I think I told you two or three weeks ago, he looks upon the Boxers as volunteers, and foresees that in 50 years jnillions of Boxers ip serried ranks and war's panoply will settle accounts with all the nations which have made China lose face. Only two things will avert a Chinese deluge — partition, a, difficult and unlikely international settlement, or a miraculous spread of C'lnistianity. If either of these is not practicable (and he thinks they are not*, he «-ks the question, If not — what? The Japs, you see, I have put aside, for I think that in the long run Russia and CLina, either separately or in cobination, will reduce her to a deadly quietness. Now, after all, I haven't indicated whieli I think to be the coming nation, for I cannot. The Anglo-Saxon race ought to mle the world. But will it? If any of you want to see a good sketch map or two, look up Stead's "Lest We Forget." OUR CELEBRATIONS. I didn't intend to write at length on su •>. a dry question, when all are agog with Royalties; and yet I can add nothing new about the Yorks. This issue goes to press before the celebrations take place ; but we are hoping for fine weather and expect/ 70,000 in the streets. The illuminations are on a scale which may not be seen again for a lifetime, and the "children's display will, under favourable conditions, be a really fine sight. As for Dunedinites, they are gone clean crazy, and it will take a week or two for them to recover their balance of mind.

— The lawn at Buckingham Palace is large enough to allow ample room for o\er 2000 men to manoeuvre.

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