THE WHEAT PROBLEM.

Otago Witness, Issue 2396, 1 February 1900, Page 7

THE WHEAT PROBLEM.

lA. NOTICE OF SIR WILLIAM CROOKES'S BOOK. By Sib William Chookes. London: John Murray.

Our readers will no doubt remember that at the meeting of the British Association in September, 1898, the presidential address delivered by Sir William Crookes on "The "Wheat Problem " attracted a good deal of Attention, and subsequently evoked a good cleal of v discussion, a good deal of it of an adverse kind. The present volume is the outcome of the address and subsequent critifcism, and Sir William Crookes sustains his argument throughout with masterly logic, and, ,tve think, confutes the criticisms of his opponents at every point. The first alarming statement the celebrated scientist made in his siqw memorable address was that England and all civilised nations stand in deadly peril of not having enough to eat. "As mouths multiply," said Sir William, "food resources dwindle. Land is a limited quantity, and the land that will grow wheat is absolutely dependent on difficult and capricious natural phenomena." Dealing specially with the ihome requirements of the United Kingdom, Sir -William Crookes pointed out that the unit consumption of wheat averaged slightly over six bush 's per annum, and taking the population at 40,000,000, no less than 240,000,000 bushels of wheat would be required annually to feed the people of the United Kingdom alone. Of the total supply 25 per cent, is home grown and 75 per cent, imported. After stating that Parliament has considered the question of national granaries, as in the event of war with any of the great Powers wheat would be treated as contraband of war. Sir William goes on to say: "We anust, therefore, accept the situation, and treat .•wheat as munitions of war, and grow, accumulate, or store it as such. It has been ehown at the best that our stock of wheat and flour amounts only to 64,000,000 bushels — '14 weeks' supply — while last April our stock ;was equal to only 10,000,000 bushels, the emallest ever recorded by Beerbohm for that period of the season. Similarly, the stocks •held in Europe, the United States, and Ca ; »ada, called 'the world's visible supply,' amounted to only 54,000,000 bushels, or ■10,000,000 bushels less than last year's sum 4otal, and nearly 82,000,000 less than that of p. 893 or 1894 at the corresponding period. To arrest this impending danger, it has been pro(posed that an amount of 64,000,000 bushels of iwheat should be purchased by tho State and Stored ir> national granaries, not to be opened, fexcept to remedy deteuor.iti'm of grain, or Sti'viov/ of national disaster, rendering starvation -.imminent." The amount stored would 'add another 14 weeks' lite to tho population. JEie other alternative would be to grow tho

whole homo supply, which vroulc! be Loth difficult and costly. It would mam devoting the whole area of cultivable land, much of which is utilised for growing mixed cereals, to wheat culture.

But the chief inteicst for us in Sir "William Crookcs's book lies in his generalisations relating to-lhs world's wheat supply. Wheat is the most sustaining food grain of the Caucasian roll, and of late years the individual consumption of wheat has almost universally increased, with one notable exception — that of Russia — where it has decreased, with due physical results to the population. In 1871 the bread-eaters of the world numbered 371,000,000. In 1881 the numbers rose to 472,600,000, and at the present time they number 516,500,000. In the early seventies the bread-eaters of the world increased 4,300,000 per annum, while in the eighties they increased by more than 6,000,000 per annum, necessitating annual additions to the bread supply nearly v one-half greater than sufficed 25 years ago. Now, to supply 516,500,000 bread-eaters will require a total of 2,324,000,000 bushels for seed and food. "What," asks Sir William, "are our prospects of obtaining this amount"/" According to the best authorities the total supplies from the 1897-98 harvest are 1,921,000,000 bushels, leaving a shortage of 403,000,000 bushels. But this deficiency has not been urgently apparent, owing to a surplus of 300,000,000 bushels carried over from the preceding harvest. Consequently the next harvest opened with a deficiency of 103,000,000 bushels, with 6,500,000 more mouths to feed. The majority of the wheat crops between 1882 and 1896 were in excess of current requirements, and thus considerable reserves of wheat were held, "but breadeaters have almost eaten up the reserves cf wheat, and the 1897 harvest being under average, the conditions become serious." Again, Sir William says, "Between 1882 and 1897 the wheat crops were so abundant that over 1,200,000,000 bushels were added to our stores, be=ides large accumulations of rye. During this time of golden harvests the exports from Russia increased, in- consequence of the Russian decline in the unit consumption of 13.5 per cent. These reserves have been gradually drawn upon, but enough still remained to obscure the fact that the 1895-96 harvest was 75,000,000 bushels and the 1896-97 harvest was 138,000,000 bushels below current needs." These statements are backed up by tables which fully support Sir William's arguments. Yet, in the face of the increased demand, the world's wheat area is slowly shrinking, and "it is clear," says Sir William Crookes, '"we are confronted with a colossal problem that must tax the wits of the wisest. When the bread-eaters have exhausted all possible supplies from the 1897-98 harvest, there will be a deficit of 103,000,000 bushels of wheat, with no substitution possible unless Europeans can be induced to eat Indian corn or ryebread." Again, he says, "As the area under wheat has increased, that under rye has diminished, with the result that scarcely an acre has been added to the world's wheat and rye since 1890; and there was in 1897 a deficit in the two principal bread-making grains of more than 600,000,000 bushels." Then, as for the prospects of increasing the wheat-growing area, he says that, practically, there remains no uncultivated prairie land in the United States suitable for wheat-grow-ing, while at the same time the demand for hgnie consumption is annually reducing the amount available for export. Next to the United States Russia is the greatest wheat exporter. In 1896 the area under wheat in Bu«sia and Poland was 36,000,000 acres, but during the past 10 years the consumption of wheat has declined 14 per cent., the bread used being at least 30 per cent, below that required to keep the population in health. This reduction has added considerably to the general wheat supply, and, Sir William says, has temporarily staved off scarcity in Europe. The yield per acre over European Russia does not exceed an average of 8.6 bushels per acre, some authorities considering it as low as 4.6 bushels. " The development of the fertile, though somewhat overrated, 'black earth,' •when extends across the -southern portion of the empire, and beyond the Ural Mountains into Siberia, progresses rapidly. Bvit, as we have indicated, the consumption of bread in Russia has been reduced to danger point. The" peasants starve, and fall victims to 'hunger typhus,' whilst the wheat-growers export grain that ought to be consumed at hotne. 1 ' As for Siberia, Prince Hilkoff , Russian Minister for Ways and Communications, declared in 1896 that "Siberia never had produced, and never would produce, wheat and rye enough to feed the Siberian population." And a year later Prince Krapotkin backed the statement as substantially correct. Trustworthy e=timfit,ps give the wheat area of Canada as 6,000.000 acres, which may be increased , to a maximum of double that area during the next 25 years. But as the cultivated area extends, so does the population increase, so that the export is more likely to fall than to rise. The annual export since 1891 has averaged 8.970,000 bushels. The exports from Australia and New Zealand will not add r large percentage to the world's visible supply of wheat. "The prospective supply of wheat 'from Argentina and Uruguay has been greatty overrated. The agricultural area includes less than 100,000,0.00 acres of good, bad, and indifferent land, much of which is best adapted for pastoral purposes." The present wheat area is 6.000,000 acres, and there is no prospect of Arcrentina ever being able to devote more than 30,000,000 acres of wheat ; and during the next 12 years Uruguay may add another million acres to the world's wheat fields. At the present time South Africa is an importer of wheat, and is likely to continue so, for the plateaux are not climatically adapted to wheatgrowing. "North Africa, formerly. the granary of Rome, now exports less than 5,000,000 bushels of wheat annually, and these exports are on the decline, owing to increased home demands." So, turn where we will, the samp problem confronts us, and nothing short of brinofing the wheat yield universally up to the highest standards of the best wheat-grow-ing countries will ward off the rapidly-ap- [ proachins: wheat famine. But in order to do that, heavy manuring with nitrogen-yield-ing manure is required. Unfortunately the soxiroes of nitrogen are rapidly becoming exhausted ; guano will soon be a thing of the past, and even the rich nitre beds of South America cannot be drawn upon indefinitely. Are there no means, then, to avert tlip dire calamity that seems impending? Fortiinately, al a time when the outlook is blackest, science has come to the rescue. The atmosphere is an enormous storehouse of nitrogen, if we only knew how 1o utilise it; but before nitrogen is available for plant 'food it must bo solidified. Sir William Crookes showed, as far back as 1892, that by passing a strong induction current between the terminals of a powerful electrical machine the air takes fire, and tho only ren«on why "Hie flame does not spread through the atmosphere and deluge the world in a sea of nilrio acid is that its igniting point is higher than the temperature of Ub

flame." By the ordinary method of gejieralingelectiicity, one tou of nitrole of soda could be produced by Sir William Crookes'fs method at a cost of £26. which is, of course, far too great for industrial p'.irposes. But when Niagara has been properly harnessed, the cost can be reduced to £5 per ton, which compares favourably with Chili nitrate at £7 10s a ton, the present price. It is estimated that the demand for nitrate for whsafc-growing willb» about 12,000,000 tons annually. But can electricity enough be generated to supply that demand? "A preliminary calculation shows that there need be no. fear •on that score; Niagara alone is capable of supplying the required electric energy without much lessening its mighty flow."