WAR MARKETS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2389, 14 December 1899, Page 7

WAR MARKETS.

(Mark Lane Express, October 23.) The various reports from market centres &how that the war is having an effect upon prices. The alterations have not, as yet, been serious ; and it is probable that sooner or later we shall find that such alterations as do take place are of a most artificial character, and that they have far more to do with the schemes of the tpeculator than with the real market prices of the commodities, which are supposed to be affected by the disturbances in South Africa. To fee this it is only necessary to consider what markets may be effected, and how the course of events is likely to affect them. Corn, beef, and mutton seem to be the readiest materials to hand for the manipulator. Apart from these the man who is to-day reaping the harvest is the shipowner who is fortunate enough to get the Government to charter his bottoms at the highest rate per ton. But, to confine ourselves to thoFe matters which may affect agriculture — and we say "may" advisedly — we had better commence with corn. There are already reports to hand which tliow that in certain districts there is a decided inclination to increa.se the price of food stuffs. Such nevrn cannot be bad news to the farmer ; but for all that it becomes necessary to consider how far it can be relied upon. We do not gugr

gest that the news is not correct, for we ate satisfied that our correspondents and various sources of information are-even more reliable than official returns ; but we would inquire as to how far such quotations are to be relied upon as indications of the future movements of the general markets. Our own opinion is that any movements which are at all violent .must be regarded as of the most temporary ! nature, and ought to be left out altogether in j estimating what- is likely to happen six months j from now. The news that some seller has got 6d a quarter more for his wheat than at the market a week ago may be extremely interesting, but it is of no value whatever as an indication of future prices unless we can accurately gauge the cause for such an alteration. It may be that the war is the cause; but it may equally well be that it is really owing to the condition of local supply or demand, or to the action of the speculator. It must always be remembered that there are" two great causes for the alteration of prices upon the market — the- legitimate effect" of- the ' r&| quirements of the" miller - and the artificial effect of speculation which may ba more or, les3. honest. If the miller has to make flour v to fulfil his contracts. he must buy corn. to enable him to do so. It may be that he has to tempt the holder of the corn, and an advance in- price is then necessary. On the other . hand, the speculator is a man who. cares neither for corn n'br-f or flour -except as 'pieces in the game of speculation. This man -is ,*he curse of the legitimate market, and he is the cause of much misleading when it comes to a question of quotations. He buys corn, not that he wants it, or- that he ever expects delivery of it. In fact, lie would call it hard upon himself if the strict rule was enforced, and if he was required to take up and pay for his purchases., He simply thinks that prices are likelyvto still further increase, and" that he can sell his bought note 3to some one who is just as little anxious to receive the grain in sacks as he i?. It is all a question of differences which are settled between, such gamblers in exactly the same way as tape price Stock Exchange transactions. War is always a good excuse foi* market movements, and the fact that the Transvaal cannot affect our available supply of food stuffs ought to -make us all the more suspicious of 'the market movements:. There is even less excuse for any alteration in the price of meat ; but there have been attempts to influence these markets. They are really ridiculous ; but unfortunately they do have some effect. We have given much attention to this subject : and we are now moro than ever convinced that it will not be wise for the British agriculturist to assume that the war will put money into his pocket. He had much better look at events as calmly ns possible, and remember that his . taxes are likely to increase.