THE ELECTIONS.

Otago Witness, Issue 2389, 14 December 1899, Page 43

THE ELECTIONS.

xhe returns of the polling which took place" throughout the colony on the 6th for the election of members of the House of Representatives show very clearly that the electors are prepared to trust Mr Seddon with another lease of power. It would be presumptuous to suggest that they do not know their own business. They cannot be ignorant of the imperfections of the Ministry, but, with all their knowledge on this point, they have declared most emphatically against any change of Administration. Their verdict on the subject is final. Nor is it difficult to suggest an explanation of the causes which have led them to the verdict they have pronounced. In the first place, it muat be admitted that the organisation of the Seddonite party was far superior to that of the Opposition. Except in isolated districts, the Opposition has not only not organised so well as the Seddonite party "has, but it was in the rarest of cases that it was first in the field. The Premier, on the other hand, has been indefatigable in his exertions to organise his followers, and the " Liberal "-Labour Federation, which he established, has been of material assistance in consolidating the vote of the party. Then, it is a well-recognised fact,, that in- times of prosperity there is always a disinclination on the part of the people to. change its political leaders. The Opposition has had to contend against this fact during the campaign. The combined fonces which have operated in favour of' the Ministry have proved too powerful for its opponents. The Opposition was placed at a disadvantage also through the illness of its leader^ throughout the contest. As a party, however, it cannot escape criticism for having trusted too much to chance. The strenuousness with which certain members of the Government party in Otago had at the end to fight for their seats suggests very strongly thatvhad the Opposition taken early steps to organise its forces in these districts — and they are typical of others — the results might have been reversed. The lesson of the campaign will, no doubt, not be lost on the party in the future.

The election has been prolific in surprises. Nowhere, we venture to think, have the anticipations of the public been .more completely falsified than in Dunedin. History is constantly repeating itself, and this constituency^has sent three members to Parliament to support the Government, just as it did in 1890. There is, however, this difference, that whereas the Labour party expected to gain the three seats in 1890, it did not anticipate that it would accomplish such a tfiumpli yesterday. It can hardly have entered into the dream of any one of the leaders of the party that Mr Scobie Mackenzie would be a defeated candidate, and we verily believe that ,the large majority of those who, by their votes, have deprived that gentleman of his seat in Parliament would this morning recall their ballot papers if that werepossible. It is a strange freak of the constituency to reject a tried and able man like Mr Mackenzie, elected triumphantly three years ago by the voters of both political parties, and, were it not that in a democracy all things are possible, it would, before the numbers were declared, have been regarded as absolutely incredible that such a result was within the range of possibility. It is perfectly evident, however, from the figures that it is not merely the ". Liberal "-Labour vote that has temporarily excluded Mr Mackenzie from politics. The vastness of the support given to Mr Millar, who has achieved the distinction of polling by far the largest number of votes which any individual candidate has ever received in the colony, forbids any such supposition. It must be recognised that the licensed victuallers have, in Dunedin, as in most of the other districts in the colony, given a general support to the Government candidates. The member*: of the Temperance party, on the other hand, voted in accordance with their individual political views in their choice of parliamentary representatives. The Seddonite candidates, therefore, received the solid support of the Labour party, which, it must be admitted, voted very compactly, the bulk of the support of the licensing trade, and their share of the support of the temperance "organisations. It would be absurd to pretend that the difference between the number of votes polled by Mr Millar and that polled by Mr Mackenzie represents the margin between the true Government and the true Opposition strength in this city. Mr Millar's tremendous lead is transparently due to other causes. Besides the factors we have mentioned which have operated to place his colleagues and himself at the head of the

poll, there is probably another cause to be taken into account. Mr Millar polled 2297 votes more than the highest candidate in the Opposition interest. The- second Opposition candidate received 1490 votes more than the third on the same side. It is evident from this that the Opposition party in the City did not exhibit the same cohesion as the Seddonite party', and it is a fair assumption that the bulk of those who supported Mr Mackenzie and Mr Sligo but discarded Mr Haynes gave their odd vote to Mr Millar. The one obvious thing, however, is the completeness of the Government success in Dunedin. We regret extremely that the electors should have seen fit to reject Mr Mackenzie, and Mr Sligo deserved better treatment at their hands than he has received. We can only hope that Mr Arnold and Mr Barclay, whom the electors have substituted for Mr Mackenzie and Mr S'ligo, will justify the good opinion of their supporters. Not only, however, does the City of Dunedin give Mr Seddon three members. From Waitaki in the north down to the Taieri in the south — seven constituencies returning nine members — a solid support is given to the Government. The members representing those constituencies have a heavy responsibility resting on them. Mr Seddon has promised to Auckland the expenditure of a quarter of a million of money. What is the support of so many Otago members worth? A number of the returns being still incomplete, it is not possible satisfactorily to 'view the results as a whole. The city constituencies have not proved so unfavourable to the Government as it was anticipated they would be. Two of the Seddonite ticket have secured election in Auckland, one of them being Mr Napier, who is looked upon as likely to fill one of the vacancies in* the Ministry. Wellington has re-elected Mr John Hutcheson, and has returned Mr Atkinson with him. It has given them strange company in that of Mr Fisher, whose reelection has been one of the surprising features of the election. Christchurch has made the most curious selection of all. It has chosen an Oppositionist, a Seddonite, and a member of the Left Wing. It has, however, rejected Mr T. E. Taylor,- "whose vote against the Transvaal contingent must have told against him, and it has also rejected Mr Smith. Mr Taylor's rejection will be the source of great gratification to " the trade " and to die Premier, whose determined efforts to oust Mr Pirani were, however, unavailing. Indeed, beyond Mr T. E. Taylor and Mr Scobie Mackenzie, the Premier has not succeeded in getting ricl of those members whose room he would prefer to their company. Mr Pirani and Mr John Hutoheson go back, as we have said, and so also do Mr James Allen, Mr Rolleston — certainly by the narrowest of majorities, — and 'Mr G. Hutchison. The Opposition, reduced in numbers though it is, will prove an effective fighting and debating body. It will miss Mr Scobie Mackenzie, and it will miss Mr Duthie, but the presence of Mr Atkinson in the House will compensate to some extent for this loss, as he has the reputation of being an excellent debater. Certainly the new members on the Government side are not likely to add much to the debating power of the House. Mr Wiiford, whose election is not improbably due to overconfidence on the part of the Opposition candidate, is likely to be the most useful of them. Among the new members also is Mr E. M. Smith, who has recovered his place for New Plymouth. The cap and bells went a-begging in the last Parliament. They will not do so in the one which was elected yesterday.