THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

Otago Witness, Issue 2355, 13 April 1899, Page 63

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

' mm i ANOTHER FRENCH AGGRE*SSION. CHINESE WORRIES. (From, Our Own Correspondent.) LONDON, February 24. Shocking as it may and must seem to every humane ard Christian mind, it is nevertheless exceedingly doubtful whether the world in general would not have been better off had England declared war against Fiance directly the Fashoda aggression was known. Or, failing that extreme step, it is questionable whether it would not have been well for England, while thoroughly prepared for war, to have pressed upon France at once all the outstanding points of difference and insisted upoa an instant settlement in accordance with British view 3. For it is quite clear that France has failed to learn a salutary lesson from her Fashoda "homemade humiliation," and is still determined to "pursue her policy of " pin pricks," that is to say, of annoying or irritating or even injuring this country whenever" an opportunity shall offer. Indeed," it is equally plain, that should no such opportunity offer, one will easily be found or made. The latest inciden.t is very much to the point.

A few dayß ago it was telegraphed that the-Styid (or Sultan, or "Imaum") of Oman (or Muscat) had agreed to grant to France a ccaling station on his coast. The small territory of Oman occupies so commanding a position as regards both the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, and is so directly opposite to India that it would not at all suit the British book for any foreign Power to secure a footing there. Oman has been described as "the eastern horn of Arabia," extending as it does from Ras Mirbat, nearly due north of Socotra to Elwab Bay, half way up the Persian Gulf, close to the Island of Bahrein. Thus a foreign station established anywhere along the Oman or Muscat coast would be a distinct menace to Great Britain's interests in Southern Asia. England's treaties with the Seyids of Oman extend over a whole century. The rights thus conferred include the maintenance of a -British Resident at Muscat. And Great Britain pays the Seyid a subsidy of 86,400 rupees per annum. Why this payment is made, nobody outside the inner sanctuary. of the Colonial Office really knows. The " consideration " has never been made public. But at least it is understood to purchase the certainty that the Seyid will not alienate any of his territory without first obtaining the sanction of England. At the beginning of the present century the earliest treaty was entered into with Oman in order to defeat the design of the first Napoleon on India. Thus nearly a century ago the French tried to " get at " us in that direction as they have jusfc tried again. And once more they have been checkmated. Directly the rumour got afloat as to the concession to France having been made, the new Viceroy of India acted with remarkable promptness. He sent to the spot Colonel Meade, the British Resident on the Persian Gulf, to investigate the affair, and the result of that inquiry was quickly seen in an ultimatum being presented to the Seyid, to the effect that if he did not immediately relinquish the intention, his town and his forts would bo bombarded by a British squadron, which had promptly " demonstiated" on the spot. Very wisely the Seyid yielded to force majeure. He was sure to do so and had more drastic measures been necessary there is no doubt as to what would have been their outcome.

But the case as regards France is still in the highest degree dangerous. The French Government first denied that anything at all - had happened — as they did about Fasliuda — and- then tried to explain away what had happened — also as at Fashoda. Next the Russian papers intervened and declared that France must be supported in this matter. Russia could not submit to the command of the Persian Gulf passing into the hands of England, and so Russia and France must " stund solid together" against the arrogant pretensions of the British. This was not a pleasant tone, and seemed to convey more than a latent threat, especially ir view of the recent movements of Russia — mentioned in one of my previous letters — in the way of massing troops and war material in the direction of the Persian Gulf.

Jfext came the news of the sudden and decisive action ordered by Lord Curzon, and so, jusfc as France and Russia were paralysed ■with amazement and unpreparedness, when the first advance into the Soudan was announced, so in this case were they utterly unprepared for the whole matter to be settled at a blow by England, without even the pretence of consulting anj| other Power. A foreign ruler had consented to grant France a port, and had been forced by England to withdraw that promise under penalty of bombardment ! " Monstrous !" shrieked the Boulevards, " More British arrogance and perfidy !" France, however, is a party to ? treaty with England on the very subject of the position of the Seyid of "Oman, and their relations toward him and toward one another. The principal treaties in regard to Omar to which JFrauce is a party appeal to be a commercial agreement between Louis Philippe and the Seyid, and a declaration between Great Britain and France concluded* "in 1862. By this, latter document the Sovereigns of the two \countriea reciprocally engaged to " respect the independence " of the Sovereign of Muscat. Upon this phraseology it has been remarked that the expression is very vague, but, whatever construction may have to be placed upon it in view of the accomplished facts which have af.fected" Muscat, as well as Zanzibar, during tho last half century, it certainly affords no pietence to French claims for a coaling station on the coast of Oman. On the other hund, considerable irritation is exhibited in Paris over the action of Admiral Douglas in threatening to bombard Muscat It appears that news of the treaty granting a coaling station to France first leaked out while Major Fagan, the British Political Agent at Muscat, was absent in Bushire. Major Fagan returned promptly to Mu&cat, but the Sultan refused to givVhiir «ay ia-

formation on the subject of the treaty The commander of the Sphinx thereupon despatched one of his lieutenants with an armed party, and suitable instructions, to Bendar Jisseh, the port which has been leased to France, and himself steamed across to Jask in order to report by telegraph to the In. dian Government. On the return of the Sphinx the Sultan's monthly subsidy was stopped Shortly afterwards Colonel Meade, British Political Resident in the Persian Gulf, arrived from Bushire. The Sultan, hoping for the appearance of French aid, continued recaloitrant, despite the entreaties of his subjects. Admiral Douglas, on board the flagship Eclipse, arrived at Muscat on the 14th. The gunboats Sphinx and Redbreast, were already in the harbour. So large a vessel as the flagship had not been seen at Muscat for years, and hei appearance there caused great consternation on shore. J During the two ensuing days the Sultan, nevertheless, remained obdurate.

On the 15th the Admiral warned the Sultan th*at if he did not attend a durbar on board the flagship at 2 o'clock, a bombardment of the forts would begin at 2.20, and notice of this intention was given at the various foreign consulates. The whole town was speedily in confusi6n, and the Sultan's advisers entreated him to submit, warning him that if he refused he would share the fate of his. cousin. The Eclipse was hauled right across the harbour, broad-side-on to the town, while the Sphinx and Redbreast were also placed in effective positions, all being cleared for action. The Sulta:i thereupon posted a notification at the Custom House and on the principal gates of the town that the French agreement was cancelled, and at noon he sent his brother as hte substitute to the Admiral, who, however, declined to receive him. Just before 2 o'clock the Sultan himself came off to the flagship, almost unattended, and remained on board for three hours. During this period the whole population of Muscat lined the beach, anxiously awaiting the Sultan's return.

The Sultan at first was defiant and asserted that ho was a free Sovereign, and could do what he liked with his own. It was pointed out to him that this was by no means the case, and this view was insisted on with such vigour that the Sultan was at length completely cowed and submissive. His first attitude was undoubtedly inspired by the belief, which he hold to the last moment, that the French squadron would back him up, and he was greatly chagrined by its failure to put in an appearance. It is stated that the Sultan completely asquiesced in the British demands, and handed over the treaty to Admiral Douglas.

There was an extraordinary scene on the shore when the Sultan. landed. He was surrcunded by crowds of his subjects, who, being relieved of the fear of bombardment, embraced and kissed him: On the following d.ay the Admiral visited the palace, and at a gieat durbar whiuh was held, the Sultan publicly repudiated the Fiench agreement. Admiral Douglas then returned to Hushire. It is said that the senior naval officer now in Muscat has orders to hoist the Union Jack on shore in the unlikely event of the French warships appearing and threatening the Sultan.

It will at once be observed how serious was the crisis. If a British squadron had bombarded the capital of a friendly semiindependent Sovereign to compel him .to retract his promise that* he would grant a coaling station to a quasi- friendly Power, which is joined with England in a treaty of protection ovei the said semi-independent sovereign, there is no telling what might or what might not have happened, especially if a French squadron had arrived in time (o defend France's menaced protege. A collision would have been inevitable. The consequence might have been a universal cataclysm

It is an unfortunate series of coincidences that simultaneously, with this new French dispute we have a fresh complication in China, a serious recrudescence of the dervish trouble in the Soudan, and, worst of all, a most regrettable deadlock with America over the Alaskan frontier question. In China the new worry has arisen through the dismissal of Hu Yu Fen from tho direc : tcrsite of the Northern railways, inasmuch as there are held to be very strong reasons for objecting to his appointed successor, Chang i r i. The following objections, among others, are made to Chang Yi. Ho is director the Kai-Ping mines, neai the railway lin-j to Shanhai-kwan, and it would, therefore, be in his power to secure preferential rates to the detriment of the railway earnings and of rival mines belonging "to the railway administration in Nan Piao. He has, moreover, openly expressed hostility to Mr Kinder, and in his memorial to * the Throne, impeaching Hu Yu Fen, he boldly proposed to modify the terms of the Hong Kong contract, accusing Mr Kinder of assuming undue power It is, therefore, evident that his accession to power will be the signal for a conflict with Mr Kinder, whose success as chief engineer ir managing tho existing lines has been so great. In his memorial Chang Vi goes further, representing that the employment of British capital and labour upon the railway is a cause of standing complaint on the part of the Russian Minister, and these grievances he commits himself to remedy in the only possible way — namely, by the dismissaf of the British official. Seeing that England has invested more than two millions sterling in this railway, it will at once be perceived that we are not likely to forfeit so heavy a slake without a vigorous struggle, and uobody can foresee as yet what shape that struggle will take or what may be its actual whore.

Another disquieting item of late news from China may prove to be pregnant with evil. It is reported that a conflict has occurred .betwecD the Russians and Chinese a*Talienwan. and that about 100 of the Chinese were killed. The question of taxes is reported to h&ve led to the collision. Particulars are wanting, but the mere fact is highly suggestive. Russia is putting forth tremendous efforts in the settlement of her new territory. Between Port Arthur and Talienwan. on the Peninsula of Kwangtung, a new town is springing up. Streets a»-d being levelled ana * large church, a theatre, and houses built for the accommodation of tht directors; officials, and gessal

superintendence of the engineer Sakharoff The cost, -wliicb is estimated at nearly £2,000,000 is to spread over six years. It would be quite in accordance with Russun methods if this dispute were to be made the pretext of fresh aggression in China, heginning perhaps with the definite annexation of the area now leased. Could England stand by idle and see that done? That Russia has long been preparing with feverish energy for a fresh Chinese coup is notorious. Immense fortifications are being constructed and are worked at night and day. Vast stores of munitions of war are being accumulated at Port Arthur and Ta-lien-wan, and large bodies of troops have been steadily massing in that direction for months past. So with Russia, as with France, our relations are as dubious as ever.