THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT HARVEST AND PRICES.

Otago Witness, Issue 2287, 30 December 1897, Page 4

THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT HARVEST AND PRICES.

The probable outcome from thia season's harvest ha§ been the past two months, and is likely to continue to -be -for sometime yet, the absorbing topic in Australian agricultural aisd coi»rneic : al circles. What the total yield will amcunt to isd-ffienl'; to hazard an estimate of, there being much uncertainty as to the proportion of the are* under crop that has been mown for hay ; while, again, the quility, judging by millers' repoit3 on parcels already mnrketed, will apparently be fair culy — thin and deficient in weight. Though see diag was unusually late, owing to the hindrances to tillage throughout » drough'y winter and spring, a bounteous rainfall brought the young plants away marvellously, and up to the middle of August never befcre in any season was ttere the promise of a more prol-fic \ic-ld in the whe it-growing- districts of Victoria, South AuHralia, and N a w South Walts. Unhappily uuusual'y hot weather eefc m, with a continuance without ramfsll throughout September and Oebobtr, and with disastrous effects on the wheat crops. So far as thtee were concerned, it has been, as the Melbourne Leader defcribas it, •' a season of unex-iinpled severity — one of the driest seasons experienced for a long series of years, further aggravatid by three preceding seasons of drought, during which the subsoil has never been pi\,pe»ly soaked."" Whtther the act u\l results in Victoria and South Australia— injury to the crops is reported to somewhat ltss (xbtiib in New South Wales — will be as serious as many district reports indicate time only can tell, but, certain it is that the problem at present exercising the minds of growers, miller?, aud speculators in the two Gist-named culonies is the possib lity of there being any surplus available lor expo t. Commenting on the position in Victoria, the Australasian of December 4 says :— '• There is a disposition to hone that there slill maybe a modi rate surplus, and that exports of wheat or fK ur, or both, to the other colonies may become possible during the early part of the new seasoD. To this end, however, it would be neccreary for prices in Melbourne to fall to the same level as in other colonies." The Leader of Dtc&wbeT 4 gives an estimate of the wheat yield of Victoria this season, based on information gathered from practical j idges situated in all parts of the colony, and after a careful inspection of the crops in the wheat-growing districts. Figures in detail are given, and the following is the summary: — Total area sown in wheat", 1,634,500 acres — "No harvest" atid cut for bay. 248,450 acres; wheat harvest, net area, 1,366,050 acres ; average yield per acre 5 bushels ;— total yield, 6,930 250 bushels. I Taking the foregoing as a fair approximate i estimate of the total yield, and allowing for a mean population of 1,150,000 person?, consuming an average of 4^ bustel3 per head, a total of 5.175,000 bushels will ba required for food in 1898. For teed an allowance of three-quarters of a Lushel per acre may ba given for so wiug an equal area to that just under wheat during Ihe pssfc season, which makes an additional 1,225,880 bushels, making the total account stand thus : — Bushels. Bushels. Total wheat yield ISJ7-93 . .. 0,859,000 Food lequirements ... 5,170,000 Setd 3.225.550 G,400,530 Surplus .., 495.120 Though this estimate is necessarily an approximation, gays the Leader, it may be accepted a3 fairly touching the maximum. While ife is possible that the later c Election of the o/licial agricultural statistics may come out ! a Htfcie lower, it is nob likely to be higher."

The latest reports to hand say that the Soulh Australian yield will be a little better than it was thought it would be, as now it is expected to approximate to an average of three bushels per acre. This, if realised, would afford a smaH surplus for export. With regard to the quality the Chronicle says : — "As we have said before we believe our quality will give first-class flour, but our fair average will scarctly exceed G2lb per bush.e-1 natural weight, and the m-oducc of

flour per bushel mu9fc necessarily fall lower than usual, with a correspondingly larger percentage of offal." Tiie Sydney Daily Telegraph recently published an estimate of the yield from tho New South Writes wheat crop, as follows :—: — Wheat 1,150,000 acres, of which fully 175,400 acres ha-ve been cnfc-.for hny. The nveraf.o yield is itated at 11 5 bushels per acre, -which, should produce 11,200,000 bushels, but in view of unfavourable conditiocs subsequently prevailing, fully half a million bushels miy be writton ( ff this estimate. SlilJ, this would leave a bahtice which— with available stocks of old wheat and fl ur, set down at about equal to 1,250,000 bushels of wheat -is considerably more than sufficient; for local requirements. The Q.teenfknd wheab crop is expected to yield abV-ut 750.C00 bushels, which is approximately about half tho rcquirem-n's of that colony. Supplies of breadstuffs for Western Australia must nearly all be imported. Under nil tho circumstances it is not surprising thit unimial interest attached to the opening pr'ctfs for new wheßt at Sjdney, Adelaide, and Melb-inne. Ia each of these markets millere have held eff as much as lluir r.osds would permit them iv order ta cheipen tha new Braii), while farmers have shown but litt'.e disposition to press sales, although importations from Caifornia were threatened. In reference to the menace the Sjdney Morning Herald, November 30, has the following : — It is interesting at t jit-, juncture to nofcu that & private cible was received to-day from S.in Fiancifco quoting No. 1 milling wheat at 4i 61 per bushel ci.f. Sydhuy. To ibis had to be added, say, 2 pei cent to over bauk c^nimisston am. exclmige and the usual whuf'ige and landing cbarg-s. Tliii brings the cos-t tiilly up to the price quoted 10 d*ys ago-namely, -1 Sd per bu'hel. Tliis giain would bo in CaHforniau bags, which are quite useless as asninst the 1 cjl cornsack casting equal to ov-r Id >>er b 'shel, whilo there is nls j the question of difYorcucc of quality ;n roocnlly nientioiud. The forward inaikut in S<in Viancisco ih quoted fiiiner than on spot. No rucont cible has bc.-n lecrived fiom New York, but the last mo»ssge qu >ie I No. 1 hard Uuluth wlteit at 5s 8d per bushel c i f and c, Sydney, aud tlure is cveiy res son to beli-_ve that it ttilf remains at about ths same figure. Iv the review of (he brenrls'uff-' market for the week, the Sydney M.vl, Dewivb'jr ]1, advises farmerfi (o sVow n, firm fr«.nfc 111 1 mill-rs, aa there is no rea3on why a single bag of prime new grain should be tel 1 iv Sydi-ey at less than 4s 3il per bunhel ; and fuither states tbat millers -should not expect; to get their feupv lies at less th*n 4s B', for the reason that no grain can be landed from S-n FrAncisco at loss than that money, and Nsw South Walts wbeat is worth from 2d (o 3d per bushel more. "D< spite th».«t, Sydney mill ts «re off.ri»g 4s per bushel for gt-ain on rail Sjdney. Just now (heir stocks are suffic'cnl to carry tb^m on, perbap?, until the New Year, fo they can take an independent stand. However, they cannot hold out; much longer than that. . . . Ho'ders of grain in the country are nob united, or they might bo able to force, the price right up t>> the 4< 8J level." The sut>j >ii»ed extract from the Mail will well repay careful study by farmers in this calony who de-ice to acquire ijcxci infjrnvition ac to the "wbeit position" iv the markets of these colonies : — ■ This. . and. Otheoi-Yfars Compaued. The f(illa\viug-ta' le lias been compilpd in order to enable -wheat-growers to impariiallyvicwn.il tbe suviouivdiigvi-of the- market. The facts hure set forth aivj incontestable. They can easily be coufi i nifrt- by those who have witjiiii their icich the oflicial<Jo3umfents on which they are based. Statistics on December 1.

* Tilts was prior to the removal of 6J per bushel duty. t Adelaide wheit was quoted at 28j per quarter or 3s 6d per bivhel ia London. Despite this vast array of facts, millers would offer the farmer 4< per bushel in Sydney, wliereas last year, when there were 60,000 tons of ,brea rlfituffs afloat for this po»t, they willingly ptave 43 9'l. The secret of this peculiar change of front; is not far to seek. Tho greater portion of this 60,000 ions of wbeat and flour, which was either ordered o' on its way from San Fr.incisco or New York on December 1 last year, liad been purchased on account of the millers themselves Having bought largely of hijrh-pricid grain, they weiv duuirous of boldiug the local price up in order to enable them ti unload theii purchases at a profit. This> year they are not in a Minilar position. There is nob a & lisle \ ouod of wheat or fi ur now afloat for Sydney, nor fov finv other Australian port. Last year, by the way, there was grain on the way to Brisbane as well as to Sydney. So, despite the fact that the New South Wales visible supply is now 60 000 tons le%s tban last year, an<] tlie world's vi c ible &uj.ply is fctill less proporiionately, and wheat is higher in London, and fi eights arc ciiffer, yet tbis season faimcrs are .a^ked to take 9d psr bushel less> for their grain. There seems no logic in the proposition.

15.95. I 1803. I 18&7. I Ne w -wheat, Sydney Do j^ 'elaide .. Do Melbourne Old wheat, Duuedin Calif ornian, c.i.f. and c.. Sydney Dulufh, c.i.f & c., Suln a y Flcur.NS.W Prospects, N.S W. Do Victoria ... DoS Australia B rest, d stuff f afloat to Sydney Old stocks World's maiket G.'zefctc pi ice a^ JfarkLane O.toberl ... Bra ds t r e ctV American visU'lesupply (l,Ubhel<) ... Sralisl/i w'rld's vi&iblesupply Oct. l(qrs)... <h (id3s dd 4s 4s Id ' 3s 5d £11 l.art moderate fair 4s Od 6s bt 5Jd 4s Gl - 4i 8d 5-I^l JCI3 fair unfavVble bad 4s 3d 5s -ljd 4s U 4a 8i brv 5< 8d XUJOs fair barely fair b.*d 15,000 tons bare very lowf 60,000 tons bare high nil lame very high 23s 6d I 253 2d 33s 4d 87,700,000 79,100/00 i 48,753,000 15.021,000 1 14,G3\000 I 10,580,000