FARM AND STATION.

Otago Witness, Issue 2210, 9 July 1896, Page 4

FARM AND STATION.

GRAO MARKET PROSPECTS.

The total absence of any considerable speculative oi orations in the principal grain markets of the colony would seem to imply a belitf on ■the part of millers and ■ merchants that there will be no appreciable change from the present level of prices during the remainder of the current cereal sea'on, and certainly no prospect of such, an advance in rates as would warrant investments in quantities for holding over, consequently they are disposed to purchase a sufficiency only for immediate needs, and to bide the development of events. On the oth?r hand the farmers, buoyed up by tha knowledge of the deficient Australian harvests, appear detarmined to largely reserve their present stocks of grain ia the confident expectation of a sparsity of supplies and a substantial advance in rates later on in the season. They reason that although speculation is in the meantime almoifc suspended, stocks of grain in facmera' hands are over-estimated by the trade, as, in addition to the u-ua' total clearances from needy growers early in the season, the katisfactory prices ruling induced many who could afford to hold to adopt the prudent" course of selling a park and k eping » part. The estimates of yield*, too, as given ia the official statist'ea are jepreiented lo be much Rbove the mark, and certaiuly the experience* of owners of threshing machines operated in some of the principal graiu-growiog districts of Otsgo aud Southland are to the tff'Cfc tliab there was a-coasiderabla discrepancy between anticipations of yields and actual results. The position on the whole is surrounded by unceitaintic s a« to the unrealised surplus of the d>fi>rent sort 3of grain that will be available for export during tbe next six months. One certainty, however, las to be recognised and faced, uud tfaab is that prices will be regulated iu>tbe Eastern Australian markets by the standard for' imports from California and Canada and the demand for o&ts for grivtiog in bond at Mell ourue. Early in the year ib was foreseen that America would have to be called u{.an to fi'l the Veficitnoicß in the grain supplies of the Aus'' traliau colonies. It was doubted if this would be practicable except at extreme rate, and it was argued that there would be some d fficulty experienced in diverting even an inconsiderable portion of the trade from its accustomed channels to British and European ports. The millers aud merchants eolved the problen>, and all the more promptly as sbipmoata to Brisbane and Sydney promised better returns than consignments to the old world. Siuce the initiation of the trade fome 13 or 14 vessels entirely laden with grain (including occasional parcel's of oats and maize) and floor have arrived at Sydney from San Francisco. Considerable consignments are also on the way from Canada, while Queensland wants have been largely supplied Alao from the States, and purchases on New Zealand account Lave beeu reported recently. Preseiit indications promise increased supplies from tte same sources, foe the very sufficient ie*soDß that the California^ harvest is bow on and heavy stocks of old wheat aud flour ftra held at San Francisco.

Had tl c British or European markets offered remunerative outlets during the winteras was expected, American sticks of grain and flour would 'hava been reduced more considerably than has beeu the casa. They remain, however, an incubus, threatening market* where, to quote the Corn Trade News, "the certainty and imminence of a large European crop ia now taken for granted, and as long as this is so the reserve of buyers will probably tira out the &tsyiug powtr of holders. •' Notwithstanding the ascertained deficiency of supp!ie3 bilow estimated requirements of European countries, ut the close of- April there were still oofficifnt reserves on hand— "the market had shown a remarkable aptitude of adjusting itaelf to the changed conditions of tupp'y." This adjustment, however, was greatly coDtiibuted to by the r^ouced consumption of wheat, owing to the mild winter throughout Europe, and the abundance and cheapness of vegetables and meat. The aggregate imrots ot wheat and fhur and wiles of home-grown wheat in the United Kingdom for the 34- weeks ending April 25 were, exclusive of ejfp'Ait*— lß9s96 — 71.719,000c wfc, as agates'; 78,491, 500ewt in 1894-95, and the average price ofißnglifih wbeit 25i 81 per quarter, as compared with 21s 4d last year. Cablegrams siuce /pril show only aggravating fluctuations around 25< 6d per quarttr and a weakening tendency in tre rparktti owing to brilliant piospects of European snd American harvest*. Apprehentiions obtained regarding the wheat and oat crops in the United States, bat the American Farmer, June 19, writ?s—" The weather this season has been almost ideal for wiu v er wheat, and now that the crop is generally approaching the pariod of heading out, the cool temperatures are exactly in keeping with requirements. Harvesting will begin in Kansas within a week, and in o^her ecctkms the season is almost equally early. It would seem cow that only some wholly unlooked-for condition can prevent a rate of yield tfcat will prove surprising. Even in Ohio, the only Ststa with a poor prospect, the outlook grows better as harvest approaches The condition of oats has changed bub slightly, bub the returns are not quite so satisfactory. A large acreage is growing, and unless conditions get worse in next three weeks the aggregate crop will be large." In view of the abundant harvests in the old wotld, and a consequent lowering of n arkeb price*, it may be looked upon as a certainty that up to December afc all eveutsJarge tupplies of American grain t«nd flour will bo' forwarded to the eastern markets of Au:tral'a, and must have a corresponding influence on values.