WHEAT SUPPLIES IN THE COLONIES.

Otago Witness, Issue 1959, 10 September 1891, Page 6

WHEAT SUPPLIES IN THE COLONIES.

European perplexities concerning supplies of breadßtuffs for the populations during the next 12 months have extended to the Australasian colonies to the extent of an apprehension of an insufficiency of wheat for the wants of the colonies themselves - say until December in Australia and in this colony March. That these anxieties are well founded has been made apparent by the recent weekly market reports published in the Melbourne and Adelaide journals, and whioh dearly show that last harvest's wheat productions in the two foremost producing cobnieß- South Australia and Victoria— are well nigh exhausted or indented, leaving heavy marginal requirements in New South Wales, Queensland, and West Australia unprovided for. Published at the two main shipping ports of the respective colonies, and fully cognisant of the importance of the information, with the harvest statistics as a basis for calculation, the Melbourne and Adelaide press are unable to show from week to week the total exports of breadstuffs for the season and the surplus available for export on hand. Accepting the statements published as approximately correct, a summary of them discloses the position at the end of July, or six weeks ago. In the Adelaide Observer it is staled : " We find that up to the end of June there had been exported about 260,000 bushels of wheat in the colonies in excess of the year's surplus as estimated on the basis of the Government returns. The export for July was fully 450,000 bushels, so that in round figures the wheat already shipped this year is 710,000 bushels more than the Burplus of the last harvest. It is, however, estimated that there was a surplus brought forward from last year of fully 30,000 tons, equal to Bay 1,120,000 bushels, from whioh the surpluß of 710,000 bushelß already shipped has been taken, leaving 410,000 bushels yet available for export— a quantity not equal to one -fourth of what New South Wales and Queensland (according to the Australasian) will require from this province. If these figures are approximately correct, the eastern colonies must, before the end of the year, look elsewhere for their supply of wheat." Only on the assumption that last season's yield was fully a million bushels more than that represented in the offioial statistics does the Observer believe that South Australia will be in a position to supply its old customers in New South Wales and Queensland, and then only by " a complete clearance of old Btocks This, however, would not be an unsatisfactory position, as holders would clear out at a very satisfactory price." In July (according to the Australasian) the balance of wheat in Victoria available for export was "about 900,000 bushels, which at present rates of shipment will last till the end of November." On the 22nd of last month a reduction of the estimated Burplus to 26,740 tons was made, bo that, as in South Australia, old stookß of wheat will be exhausted before any appreciable quantity of wheat can be available. Then the annual importations of New South Walss and Queensland are estimated at 120,000 tons, about 5,350,000 bushels. Towards these, a late number of tbe Australasian says, "Viotoria has already shipped 1.600,000 bushels, and South Australia about 1,050,000 bushels, leaving say 2,700,000 bushels still to be shipped if the average shipments of former years are to be maintained." But the recently published agricultural statistics of New South Wales show a deficiency in the last wheat harvest of the colony compared with the returns for the previous year amounting to the considerable quantity of nearly 3,000,000 bushels, which must be provided for by so much additional importations in order to supply the population with bread. Therefore to the estimate in the Australasian referred to, of 2,700,000 bushels required by Queensland and New South Wales before harvest, must be added the recently disclosed deficiency in the harvest of tbe latter colony of, in round numbers, 3,000,000 bushels —in the aggregate needs in the two colonies much in excess of those for at least two preceding years. In anticipation of pressing wants possibly the high prices ruling for wheat in colonial markets may still further harden, and tbiß will probably ensue unless checked by importations to Sydney and Brisbane of Oalifornian wheat of the new crop, where it is affirmed it can bs landed at 5s or 5a 2d per bushel. Unfortunately, in this colony the present available stocks of wheat are not ascertainable. There are many ports of shipment, and no records of exports hava at any time been made public until they had long ceased to be useful either to the producer or to the exporter. The same remark applies in part to the agricultural returns which though collected in February, were issued this year from the Registrar-general's offioe on the 17th June, a date before which, ordinarily a considerable proportion of the harvest yield has been disposed of. However, the statistics represent the wheat yield of last harvest as 5,723,610 bueheb, from whioh has to be deducted food requirements and wants for seed. Allowing seven and a half bushels for consumption per capita of population numbering exclusive of Maoris, 626,658, in round numbers 4,700,000 bushels are required for the year. To this must be added the quantity used for seed, whioh this season may be estimated at two bußhels per aore on 350,000 acres, or a total of 700,000 bushels. The estimate of wheat consumed per head of population is lower than that adopted in Government statistics, but the quantity is ample and certainly exoeeds the standards calculated on in the Australian colonies. As regards the quantity absorbed this season for seed purposes, it will be found almost to a osrtainty that 350,000 acres is rather an under than an over estimate of the area now tinder orop. Two years ago the wheat area was 335,861 acres, and, stimulated by prospeotß of remunerative prices for next harvest yield, cultivation of the cer9al has been resumed on an extended scale. The Beed and food requirements are therefore estimated to aggregate to 5,400,000 bushels. Regarding the offioial statistics of the wheat yield of last harvest we may state without any hesitation our unbelief in their acouracy. Deficient though the crops were generally, the average production was fully 2£ bushels per acre more than the offioial eatimato. Had it not been so we should have already felt the pinch of scarcity, and been very near to the close for the season of the export trade. Calculated for the area under orop last year, 301,460 aores, at 2J bußhels per aore, would give 753,650 bushels additional, and again stooka held over from the previous cereal year may be set down at 150,000 bushels— these two itemß together summing up to 903,650 bushels, added to the offioial estimate of the harvest yield— viz., 5,723,610 bushelß— give our total supplies of wheat in March as 6,627,260 bushels. From this has to be deducted tbe quantity estimated for food and seed. 5,400,000 bußhels, leavu>g 1,227,260 bushels, or 36,817 tons.,

as the available surplus for the ourrent oereal year. What proportion of this has been exported and the balanoe on hand there are no means of ascertaining. Certain it is that in Otago, with the exoeption perhapu of one or two of the northern districts, tbe stocks of milliner in farmers' hands are about exhausted, and, as has been the case for some time past, during tbe ensuing five months breadstuff 3 for the southern population must be largely drawn from Canterbury. Again, it must be borne in mind that while exportation of wheat from the prinoipal producing districts proceeds steadily with the prospect of acceleration should any sharp rise in prices occur in Australia because of necessities there, there is a much smaller volume to deal with than was the case last year, the respective harvest yields being 8,448,506 bushels in 1890. as against 5,723,610 bushels in 1891, a decrease of 2,724,896 bphels, nearly two and three-quarter times the estimated Burplus for export. It is therefore just on the cards that we may be awakened At an early date to the knowledge of over-exportation and consequent bankruptcy in wheat and flour. Certainly no defence could be made under the oiroumstances to the charge " of neglecting to keep proper accounts." On tbe occasion of his visit to Dunedin a representative of this journal waited on the Hon. the Minister for Lands and submitted for his consideration the importance to producers primarily of weekly or bi-weekly customs returns of exports of foreign cereals and other important agricultural prodnctß. The Minister promieed to give the subject consideration on bis return to Wellington, bat newly entering into offioe as a Minister of the Crown details of offioial duties would monopolise his attention, and then there was the Parliamentary toil to follow. That under the oircumatancea consideration of the subject was deferred is 'still further excusable, inasmuch as not one of the present Ministers evsr gave the matter a thought. The concession sought does not involve expense ; it simply amounts to imposing a sum or two] in addition weekly on a customs clerk at each prominent shipping port. Thepreas would gladly publish the particulars, the Bundry records would be oollected by all the leading journals, and thus weekly balance sheets would be laid before their readers. It ia too late in the season to initiate the arrangements bo* far as cereals are concerned, but certainly a commencement should be made, say by the Ist of March next, and the time will be tbofmore opportune, as there will be no stooks of grain to carry forward to next year's account.