PRICES OF GRAIN DURING THE CURRENT CEREAL TEAR.

Otago Witness, Issue 1935, 26 March 1891, Page 6

PRICES OF GRAIN DURING THE CURRENT CEREAL TEAR.

TJhe steady advance in wheat values cabled Bias been welcome news to Australasian producers whose minds are, however, considerably ■exercised as to the permanency or otherwise of the Tiße. With the view to throw some light on the subject a review of British market reports since October is submitted, and from this it will be seen that so early as November there was a forecast of higher rates for wheat at an early period. In commenting on the November imports of ■wheat and floor to the United Kingdom, the Field (Lyndon), December 13, says:— "The decrease in the receipts of wheat and wheaten flour is remarkable when it is borne in mind that in November 1889, prices ruled nearly 2s 6d per quarter lower than obtained during the past month.- It points out that the supplies available abroad are not nearly so large as last year, and indicates the probability of a rise in price in the early months of next year. Boumania (which, in the months of September and October, played a great part in swelling oar receipts) dropped below the level of last year, while the United States dropped from 1,303,2440tvt in November 1889 to only 381,685cwt, a marvellously low receipt in a month from that quarter. And even of wheaten flour from thence the drop was from 1,233,1440wt to 631,229cwt. Wheat from British possessions has well maintained its place, and for the 11 months of the year Australasia has sent double the quantity than in the corresponding period of 1889. The lessened receipts of wheat flour would appear to indicate that our millers are being better supplied -with home-grown produce, and that, by the general adoption of improved methods of milling, they are better holding their own against their American rivals. Barley, it is seen, was largely imported, prices being better. There is a remarkable decrease in the receipts of Indian corn, and it is no wonder that, under the influence of short imports, prices have had a substantial increase." And the Times of same date reported as follows: — "With the exception of barley, ell cereals and wheaten flour are below last year's November totals. In September and October the receipts of wheat from Roumania were abnormally large; for the past month they we 472,446 cwt., compared with 676,416 cwt. in November 1889. Those from tbe United States not only fell off to the extent of 921,559 cwt. ot wheat, but were less by 601.915 cwt. io wheaten flour. So far as can be gathered from these returns, with the exception of cheese and tallow', the imports of goods from the United States were considerably below those of November last- year. If this be a result of the M'Kinley Tariff Act it is one the author probabiy did not antioir pate. The falling off in money payments amounts to 26 per cent, on wheat, 33 per cent, on flour, and 37 per cent on Indian corn." On December B—l4 weeks from harvest — tbe sales of Home-grown grain in the leading markets of England and Wales daring the period were 1,208,752qr5, at an average of 32s Id against 1,056,096qrs at an average of 29s lid per quarter in the corresponding period of the previous year v barley, 1.876,967qr5, at an average of 29b lid, against 1,801,693qrs at 29a 7d per quarter ; and oats, 223,389qrs at 17s 5d (381b per bushel), against 179,808qrs at 17s 2d per quarter. It must be explained that the averages are determined by the mean between the highest prices realised !for prime parcels and the lowest obtained for inferior qualities. It appears, then, that while imports of foreign wheat and flour, and Indian corn as well, had greatly diminished, English farmers, tempted probably by the higher rates, Bold grain very freely. The actual imports of grain and the sources from whence the "breadstuffs (flour reckoned as wheat) were, for November 1890, as compared with November 1889, as under :—

Nov. 1890. Oct. 1890. Sept. 1890. Barley ... Qra. 625,000 Qn. 800,000 Qrs. 600,000 Oat* ... 375,000 350,000 400,000 Maize ... 400,000 552,000 883.000 The progressive decline in receipts of. maize will not escape observation. Of the November market generally the Mark lane Express reported :— " The wheat, barley, flour, oats, and maize all cost more per cwt than they rid a year ago. The rise in oats was noticeable, for, while the total quantity imported was 2 per cent, less than in November 1889, the price paid was 1 per cent, more." Throughout December the tone of tbe market for breadstuffs was sluggish until near tbe close of the month, when transactions assumed a hardening tendency. It was then advised: "Continued or increased coll should be met with as firm holding of grain as possible. There seems between now and April to be good ground for expecting a strong recovery of demand, which has now been languid for an unusual length of time."

The latest detailed market report to hand is thivt in the Economist (January 24). In this it is stated : — " The protracted inactivity that has been forced upon the trade (by severity of weather) in all directions, must necessarily leave a good deal of lost time to be regained. Consumption of both breadstuff s and dry feed must have gone on largely, and all stocks where available will have been proporHonately drawn upon. The supplies in second hands must, therefore, be narrowed considerably, and will provide a demand for fresh arrival?, which the opening of navigation at some of thu principal sources of snpply will furnish." As cablegrams lately received advise enhanced rates for grain the following extract from the Economist, January 24, giving ruling Mark Lane quotations at that date will indicate approximately the present position of the Home markets : — " Good English wheats have been scarce on the London market, and for good samples 6d advance has been obtained, whilst the commoner grades b*ve been saleable only in very small quantities and at easier pricps. Foreign white wheats were very firmly held, and for long berried New Zealand 38s 6d has been refused. Indian and Russian wheats have shown weaker tendencies, there having been more offering. The cargo trade has moved Blackly, and during the last day or two the tendency has been in favour of buyers. Californian, off coast, sold at 39i; cargoes for prompt shipment, at 38a and 38* 4|l United Kingdom for orders; Austral'ai. rrompt shipment, at 37s 3d ; January and F^ ruary shipments at 378 3d to 37s 61. Feveral cargoes Russian ohang d hands, Crimean Azima, on passage, at 36s lid; Odessa Azinw, on passage, 33s 1%& for. United Kingdom,

and 35s Continent, and February-March shipments at 33a 3d. A fair amount of business done in Indian, including No. 2 Calcutta Club, ' April-May shipment, via Canal tor Hull, at 38s ; softwhito Kurrachee at 34s lD|ds and choice Bombay, on passage, at 38s 3d. Flour was firm in the early part of the week; but at Mark lane, in one or two instances, slightly easier rates were taken for American. Very little English flour offering, and the tone fairly firm. The imports of breadstuffs into the United Kingdom were light, and the aggregate of fresh supplies, including home-grown, fell appreciably short of average requirements ; whilst, notwithstanding delay in arrivals, the increase in the supplies on passage was very small. The statis* tical position is, therefore, rather stronger in the changes that have occurred. Grinding barley ou the spot has hardened up 3d per quarter on the spot. For arrival there has been very little doing, but the tone is steady* There is more demand for beans, and Mazagan have realised 6d advance. Canadian white peas haVe, with fairly free purchases* commanded a similar rise. Maize has ruled fully steady on the spot, with transactions for arrival of fair extent, Galatz Foxanian, March-April shipment, has been sold at 23s 6d, Mazagan at 24s 3d, and to-day Danubia, April-May shipment, sold at 22s 9d. Arrival of oats have amounted to over 100,000 quarters, but the market nevertheless has beeu firm, and finished 6d dearer to-day, the lowest rate for 381b averages being 17s per quarter."

There is no disagreement among market authorities as to the fact that stocks in all European and American producing countries of all varieties of grain are unusually bare. One other factor that must have a potential influence on the market value of breadstuffs during the ensuing 12 months will be determined in April or May, tbat is the measure of injury done by the unusually severe frosts to the winter wheats throughout Europe and America.

' Whence. 1890. JBB9. Vtlantlo ports... ... Qrs. 209,972 Qrs. 437,031 follfornia ... ... 89,498 278.10! 3an&d& ... ... 122,962 147,53) Jußßia ... ... 390,804 510,061 India ... ... 107.881 178,141 Central Europe ... 106,714 115,681 3.8. Europe ... ... 134,696 169,00! lustralaoltt ... ... 82,763 3,481 [)tber oonntries ... 49,205 61,221 •Totals ... ... 1,276,983 1,900.181 Thq receipts of other corn were :—: —