THE AUSTRALIAN LIVE STOCK SUPPLY.

Otago Witness, Issue 1898, 19 June 1890, Page 8

THE AUSTRALIAN LIVE STOCK SUPPLY.

Al the January meeting of the Australasian Association for tha Advancement of Science, held in Melbourne, Mr Hayter, the Government Statist of Victoria, read a paper which should be of considerable interest to this colony, aspiring as it does to be not only the granary but in some measure the pasture of Australia. The subject of the paper was the meat supply of Australia. Mr Coghlan, the Isew South Wales statistician, had previously published some calculations on the same subject, and from them the conclusion he arrived at was that

for many years the Australian supply of mutton would be sufficient, but that the demand for beef would probably overtake the supply in about six years. Mr Hayter, j

on the other hand, calculated that it was almost impossible to place any limit upon the quantity of stock the continent of Australia could carry, and that the need of supply from outside sources was a contingency too remote to be taken into account. The processes by which two men so skilful in the caloulation both of actualities and probabilities arrive at conclusions so different, are in themselves interesting from the side light they throw on Beveral social processes ; as well as being almost as valuable to producers here as the periodical calculations regarding agricultural produce. Mr Ooghlan assumes that the population of Australia is increasing at the rate of 4 per cent, per annum. This, Mr Hayter points out, would result in the popular tion being doubled in 18 years, which is an unheard of increase. The population of the United States was doubled in 25 years, and this has been hitherto unprecedented. The excess of births over deaths in Australia is something under 2 per cent., and Mr Hayter allows another 1 per cent, for gain by immigration, making a total increase of 3 per cent., while Mr Coghlan apparently based his calculations on the increase of 4 per cent, in 1881. An element ef doubt enters into the calculations of both gentlemen from the extraordinary fluctuations in the returns of sheep and cattle. For the quinquennial periods from 1863 to 1888 the increases of sheep varied from 59 per cent, in the first period to 11 per cent, in the next period, and thence through another series of fluctuations to 18 per cent, for the period ending 1888. It may be that these extraordinary variations are due to droughts and disease, although Mr Hayter patriotically declares them to be due to incomplete enumeration. The increase of cattle is subject to the same irregularities, and the increase for the period ended 1888 reaohed 8 per cent., after having been 46 per cent, for that ended 1868. Disregarding the tables as unreliable, Mr Hayter takes the number of sheep and cattle as estimated at 1888, and assumes a rate of increase. " From competent authorities " he estimates an increase of 30 per cent, per annum of sheep and cattle, and estimates the loss by drought and disease at 10 per cent., leaving a net increase of 20 per cent. The average annual consumption is two sheep and 026 of a head of cattle per unit of the population. Taking, then, the population of Australia, estimating the increase at 3 per cent, until 1892, and taking the number of sheep and cattle, and similarly allowing for a net increase of 20 ..per cent , it is found by a very simple calculation that in 1892 the proportion of sheep and cattle to the population will have greatly increased. The population of Anstralia is estimated to reach 3,260,000 at the beginning of 1892, and the number of sheep and oattle at the same period, and estimated by the method already referred to, 132,623,000 and 12,612,000 respectively. An important element in Mr Hayter's calculation should not be lost sight of. The increases which he submits are "pos- " sible" increases, and are admittedly not probable. But he thinks that should the surplus be nearly overtaken by the food requirements of the population, and the scarcity be indicated by the price of meat, the practices of slaughtering lambs and calves, of unsexing heifers, and exportation would cease at once. From this it appears that Mr Hayter's 20 per cent, increase is the utmost limit of possibility, and can only be gained by the discontinuance of methods apparently assumed to be largely in use. Whether the slaughtering of lambs or the spaying of heifers is so largely in use as to affect the averages over the whole continent is open to question. The slaughtering of lambs is practised only near the towns, and the spaying of heifers on fully stocked runs. Mr Hayter lays much stress upon the existence of fresh country and the increase of irrigation and ensilage as affording possibilities of almost unlimited increase of stock._ Now the unexplored country in Australia lies mostly very far north, and is almost entirely subtropical and therefore unsuitable for stock. Irrigation may make some of the lane suitable, but it is impossible to irrigate half a continent when that half is known to be flat. Moreover, a country subject to droughts is also liable to floods, and Mr Hayter's paper was prepared before the Darling river had become uncontrollable. On the whole, we think it may be concluded that while New Zealand has nothing to hope from Australia as a market for meat it has nothing to fear from it as a competitor in the meat market of Europe. It should be remembered that New Zealand is in the unprecedented position of having increased its number of stock with the increase of cultivation, and the manner in which the number of sheep in particular has risen notwithstanding, but really because of, the drain bj export of frozen mutton, indicates possibilities of increase at present almost incalculable from the extraordinary extent of the capabilities of its pasture.