THE MEAT TRADE.

Otago Witness, Issue 1904, 18 May 1888, Page 6

THE MEAT TRADE.

Expected Shortage of Meat Exportation From the United States. Just about 11 years ago the exports from the United States of fresh beef in the carcass first attained such magnitude as exercised a controlling influence on prices in the meat markets of the United Kingdom. The prejudices of British consumers had been speedily overcome by the excellence of the meat and its cheapness compared with the rates demanded for the home-fed article. Retail shops for the sale of American beef were opened in the principal centres of population throughout England, the. demand for it rapidly extended, and supplies con,tinued to be poured in in vastly increasing quantities. With the experience of one or two years of these apparently inexhaustible suppliespeople became unduly impressed with the idea that there could be no practical limit j assigned to the resources of the United States for meat production, and this opinion obtained so generally in this colony, and was urged so persistently and publicly when the project for the establishment of a frozen meat industry was first mooted here, that many were dissuaded from taking shares in the undertaking, which, but for the prompt support accorded by the farmers, must have indubitably fallen' through. The United States trade may be said to have been an unchequered success up to 1885, for although prices had fallen abnormally low, supplies were still freely forwarded, and it was stoutly maintained that American meat could be placed on the market at rates which would undersell the productions of any other country. As subsequent events have proved, a well-devised policy dictated the dissemination of extravagant assumptions regarding the cattle raising interests in the States. Fabulous statements as to the facilities for making money on joyed by extensive graziers in the unsettled Western territories were readily accepted by hard-headed moneyed men, and a " boom in ranches " set in. Much British capital was invested in these cattle runs with disastrous consequences to the investors, and strange to say, the hardest hit have been th 3 wealthy business classes of Scotland. From the proceedings at recent meetings of shareholders in ranch companies, it appears that .ordinary precautions were not taken in many cases before completion of the purchase to ascertain the b&najides of the statements in regard to the number and description of cattle on the runs and other material particulars. The speculators were unadvised as to the duration and severity of the winter, and of a "blizzard " they had,no conception. The illusions have been .dispelled during the past three years. The winter losses of cattle have been enormous throughout the vast Western territories. Concurrently the prices for carcass beef of the best quality obtainable have been tinprecedentedly low. The necessities 'of the ranch owners have compelled them to press forward " all qualities " of cattle for sale to Chicago and other large markets, and there are sad evidences everywhere that the ranch bubble has burst. To quote the North British Agriculturist — a journal well informed by parties involved in ranch speculations, —" All appearances go to show that the worst of the competition with American fat cattle is nearly over, and in all probability Home producers will be able to realise higher prices for their stock before many months are over.'' It may, however, be contended that there has been a vast micrease in the numbers of cattle during the past 20 years, but concurrently there have

been enormous additions to the population. The present position is very clearly presented by Messrs Clay, Robinson, and Co., of the Union Stock Yards, Chicago, who issued circulars'to all the most prominent feeders of cattle in the States named, asking the following questions: — 1. What proportion of cattle are being fed in your neighbourhood to be placed on the market between "January 1 and July 1 , in comparison with last year ? State the percentage as near as possible. 2. What ißthe price of corn in your viciuity ? 3. State, as near as possible, percentage of corn crop in comparison with average years in your district 4. What percentage of hoga will be marketed from January 1 to July 1, in comparison with last year ? 5. Is there much hog cholera around you ? Those inquiries have been very fairly and fully answered by nearly every party addressed. The results are:—

It may be necessary to explain that it is the practice in the States named to finish off cattle in winter on corn, and that the' bulk of " finished " cattle in winter and spring are obtained from thence. Commenting on the returns, Messrs Clay, Robinson, and Co. say:— •'•The above.'figures indicate a great shortage both in feeding cattle and hogs. So far such figures are not borne out by receipts at leading centres of the cattle trade, for the runs (supplies) of cattle are far ahead of what they were last year. A careful personal examination of various districts, however, contains those figures, and it is only a question of weeks when a great shortage of beef cattle will be observed and felt. , The good cattle to-day are very scarce, and in fact they are not in the country. The low price # of cattle in comparison with the high price of feed, and the general disgust of all classes of cattle raisers with the business, will force large numbers of cows and half-fat steers to market. The manner in which receipts keep up is astonishing to _ outsiders, but parties who are in the stockyards every day are not suiprised, as they see the quality of the stock as it arrives. To show how poor it is, it may be stated, as an instance, that it would almost be impossible to get together a train load of export cattle at any price, even when we have 12,000 to 13,000 cattle in, the yards. " The over-production of cattle during the last few years is rapidly being overcome, and if the present system of running everything indiscriminately to -market is continued, we may look for a beef famine in th 6 near future. ' "During the past year three circumstances have operated against all cattle men — viz. : 1. Low prices. 2. A severe drought followed by high-priced feed. 3. A great stringency in the money market. These facts have disheartened many feeders and cattle men generally, and there is a general wish, more especially in such districts as Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and the older States, to get out of the business and direct their energies to other fields.- " The conclusions we have come to, after reading carefully the many letters and answers to our circular questions which, we have received, are as follows :— l. That the heavy run of medium cattle and female stock is likely to continue. 2. That good cattle are scarcer than ever known before, and will continue to appreciate in value. 3. That we'may look for the receipts to become ' lighter after April, and consequently values i will increase." j From the foregoing it may be ' assumed that the American supply will not be a contributory factor in keeping down values of 1 meat in the British markets during the next : few months, however River Plate supplies helped by bonus may operate.

§f! s ! ft CO OOO' tS »-• Percentage of Cattle Feeding. .££•.s*! Corn. -a 05 05 00 Cl Percentage of Corn Crop. OOCOICO Percentage of Hogs Feeding. et- ci- © ct- ct* S" Co