MARKET PROSPECTS FOR CEREALS.

Otago Witness, Issue 1891, 17 February 1888, Page 7

MARKET PROSPECTS FOR CEREALS.

Now, while the harvest is being reaped, the prospective rallies of grain during the current cereal season are naturally the subject of much anxious consideration on the part of growers, who, so far as wheat is concerned, regard the outlook as decidedly unpromising. Twelve months ago, because of the ascertained shortage of crops in South Australia and Victoria, it was felt, and rightly so, that, estimated liberally, the season's production of wheat would be very little in excess of colonial requirements, and therefore market rates in the colonies would be uninfluenced by Home or European prices. Throughout the season these anticipations have been fulfilled, but the position this year is just the reverse. There will be an unusnally large surplus production of wheat, which must be marketed in the United Kingdom and on the Continent, and values here will be determined by quotations there. Unfortunately for the producers there is another incidental factor to be taken into account. Freights liave risen so considerably already at Australian ports that even wilh wheat offered at 3s 2d to 3s 8d per bushel f.0.b., exporters are unable or unwilling to operate. The following observations and figures which appeared in an article in the Argus some weeks ago illustrate tho disadvantageous position of graingrowers in the colonies in regard to freights : "In reference to the subject of freights in connection with the rates at which Indian wheat is carried from Bombay to English and Continental ports— those rates being accepted for first-class steamers— as the subject ti one of more than ordinary interest on the eve of the harvest, v/e pursue it i'url/nor by staling the rates charged from New York nnd Boston to English ports. From September 17 to October 15 these rates were as follow :— Prr B-isljpl. To Liverpool ~. ■>■ Ii«llo2jd To London ■■• - J S V } ° lAI,l A l , ToLeith ... ... -" U<lto.iid To Kewcwtlo ... - 1,"1t02a ToGtosgow ... - ?' ii ll l ll l) 2.«l )2 .« To Half H d^°i So Bristol... ... - 3d to 3^(l. The nearest equation o[ these quotations, taking quantities to the leading ports into account, is 2|d per bushel, the equivalent of whieli its 7s 0;kl per ton-of 37^ bushels. This, oe it remembered, is the average rate of freight by the regular steam packets. Now, assuming that shippers of Victorian wheat will have to pay 30s per ton this season, we which we gave formerly into the following niay bring the figures given above and those approximate comparison : — A\ WM.JE Kate ov Freight to England. P<.-r Bushrl. Trora Melbourne... •■• ••• -[J^ From Bombay ... ... ••• h^ From United States ... — -M The comparison is 3|d against the Victorian shipper in the one case and 7^d in the other, ■and to the extent shown the Victorian wheat•giower k virtually handicapped. In other wards, he must expect a lower return than his Indian -or American competitor whenever he finds it necessary to permit shippers to operate." The interests of graingrowers in New Zealand are still more adversely affected, as freights Homeward are invariably higher l tan from Australian ports ; ftherefore, should an increase follow in the charges for 'carr-yiiig g ra i n f rom .thte Colony proportionate to that which has taken effect in Aus-

tralia, the cost of freight of wheat to the United Kingdom from our ports cannot be much under lid per bushel. It is true that present quotations for wheat in the Home markets, fluctuating though they are, are higher than at the corresponding period last year, but the advantage is lost in the advance in freights. All the latest reviews of transactions in the Home market state that "the statistical position is strong," and hopes are entertained of an advance in values of wheat. Should these anticipations be realised, and prices touch 38s to 40s per quarter, New Zealand growers would not have much to complain of. It would be difficult to forecast the probable prices for oats. The new crops will be placed on bare markets throughout these colonies, but it is understood that in this colony there is an increased area under oats this season, while the production in Victoria is estimated at 250,000 bushels over that of last year. Much of the Victorian product was discoloured while harvesting, and unless the maize crop in Australia prove unusually abundant, prices for superior oats promise to be sustained. The attention of millers has latftly been directed to some of the Australian markets as an outlet for oatmeal, and there does not appear to be any reason why the Victorians should hold the monopoly of these in perpetuity. Again, the facts must not be overlooked that the oat crop in the United Kingdom and the maize crop in America have been seriously deficient ; probably therefore as the season advances inducements will offer for shipments of oats to Home markets. It may be argued that prices for this cereal have been unprecedented ly low since harvest in British markets, but the depression was the consequence of extensive shipments from Russia, whose stocks have been almost exhausted. There are very 1 distinct indications that prime malting barley will not be over abundant this season. Samples of desirable quality were exhausted some time ago, and circumstances were alike in all the colonies. In Victoria there was a slight increase of the area under crop this season, but much damage was done by locusts, and further heavy losses were caused by rainy harvest weather. There is no data yet available from which an estimate could be formulated of this year's production of barley in this colony, but the prevailing opinion is that there will be no excessive supply, and that prime parcels will be in keen demand and bring satisfactory prices.