THE WAR CLOUD IN EUROPE.
The European situation seems raori threatening at present than ifc has bee | since the Penj-deh incident. Two circuD stances are very ominous. One is that i the Governments concerned, and particular!; Kussia, are so careful to use peaceful langu^! whilst directly contradicting their words tj making extraordinary preparations for wai; the other is the time of year at which th&i preparations are being made, particularly Hi Russian movement in Poland, which cot* stitutos the chief menace. Spring is the time for wars to break ok, and considerable evidence has been addud of late to show that the early spring offes peculiarly favourable opportunities for tb invasion of Galicia, owing to Austria cI I having sufficient huts in that district to<#< of any considerable force being kept there is ! winter. Russia has for three years past, b«: mci easing the accommodation for winteriu' a large force in Poland, and yet we learn that the troops that she is now- massing there ar- J suffering severely. It is hardly to be sotposed that the Czar would subject them to so much suffering and go to so mnc'a expense without a purpose, and tfe< purpose may be strengthened by the knowledge that Austria was awakened last year to the danger of her Polish frontier, and bs voted large sums for the erection of accommodation for wintering a larger force in Galicia, so that every year of delay will mak the invasion of Galicia by a coitjy-de-maii more difficult. Lord Salisbury's statement in the autumn that when war came fe believed it would break out suddenly, tally ing as it does with Sir Charles Dilke's exposition of the conditions of a successful Galician invasion, forms now a kind of commentary upon the difference between tbj Czar's words and deeds the significance d which is not hard to be perceived. Bufc )1 we suppose that the Czar is incurring all this expenditure of money and life upon massif troops in Poland merely as a threat in th« hopes of achieving his purposes in Bulgaria, bun without the intention of going atf further, and if, as is already evident, Austria will not and cannot yield in Bulgaria, tbes it id difficult to account for the large expenditure to which prudent and economic^ Germany is going in calling out her Za*^ wehr or militia, and again within 18 raontw making another large addition to her standing army. It has further to be remembered in calculating- the chances of peace or war tba* j every fresh rumour of war increases tbe p* 0 * bability of its occurrence, not merely °1 accustoming men's minds to regard the o^' break of war as an unavoidable evil lC ° can only be postponed, slightly, but because each crisis leads to an increase in the en<> r ' mous burden of the armies of the Poweft and thus adds a strong reason for P ut *^ their fate to the touch. And if the I ©* spaeks fair now, his press was never molß^Z. vocative in jts tone tfaaij lflst November, ww* l '
botli the German and Hungarian press were given an unusual latitude against Eussia. j['he Deutsche Zeitung, which is Prince Jjisraarck's unofficial spokesman, early in December asked whether the Italian Alliance did not; make the moment propitious f or « ending the Russian nightmare shortly, " s harply, decisively, and at once." In the pester Lloyd, M. Tisza himself about the same time discusses the terms to be imposed on defeated Eussia, suggesting the creation of a new kingdom of Poland, with Kiefl: for its frontier forti ess and Odessa as its military port ; Germany taking for her share of the spoil all the Baltic provinces, including St. Petersburg and all the district between the Dneiper and Dwina. M. Tisza, as Premier, does not talk so loud, but the HunL'ttrian influence which is predominant over Austrian policy is distinctly warlike; and the Hungarian", we learn by telegraph, are greatly excited by the Russian demonstration in Galicia, and anxious that Eu.ssia sliould not bo allowed to strike the first blow. In short, the calmer language o[ the press during the last six weeks appears to be rather the calm that comes before the storm, when we consider what preceeded it, the actual facts that are faking place and the advantage to be gained by a sudden attack. A telegram, published last week, states Sir Charles Dilke's belief that war is at hand, and that Lord Salisbury doubts whether England can prevent herself from being erabroiled in it. In the December "Blackwood" General Ilawley has put forth very clearly the value of the English alliance to Germany, Austria, and Italy. The Italian frontier to France is so strong as to be easily defended, but her navy is weaker than France, and a large nortion of her army would have to be kept in the country to resist a French invasion by sea. The English navy, he calculates, by making this impossible would set free over 300,000 Italian troops for the defence of Austria, besides enabling Germany to move more freely in Poland by protecting Memcl, Koningsberg, and the eastern end of her coastline, Bub what inducement has England to join the Triple Alliance? Besides her treaty obligations and interests in Constantinople and Egypt, General Hawley urges that if we do not help Germany, Austria, and Italy now, they will subsequently allow Russia to do what she likes in Asia, whereas with British assistance the defeat of Eussia and France becomes an absolute certainty, and any subsequent attempt at the imasion of Inflia would be out of the question. The argument s?eems to us dangerous. Is iL either wise or right to join in a war in wliich wo have no direct concern in order to avoid a possible future war in which by proper preparations we ought to be able to take care of ourselves ? ' That it will be difficult for England to avoid becoming embroiled in the war is certain, and that the neutral receives no thank's from either party equally so ; but it is a good rule to mind one's own business, and a war postponed may become a war avoided. Certainly every colonist will hope that England may maintain neutrality with honour, and will be slow to embark in a war, however promising of success, which she is not absolui ely driven into.
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Bibliographic details
Otago Witness, Issue 1890, 10 February 1888, Page 10
Word Count
1,063THE WAR CLOUD IN EUROPE. Otago Witness, Issue 1890, 10 February 1888, Page 10
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