PROSPECTS-AGRICULTURAL AND PASTORAL.

Otago Witness, Issue 1875, 28 October 1887, Page 6

PROSPECTS- AGRICULTURAL AND PASTORAL.

October weather in the Southern provinces^

is proverbially unsettled, and this season the character has been fi)lly sustained. During

the past two months indeed, although tli^fi have been occasional genial days, t!ie;9] alternated with high winds, accompanied by cold, squally rains, which retarded vegetation and impeded farm operations While grumbling at the " ills we know of," compensating advantages are apt to be forgotten. Winter and spring frosts there have been none to speak of, and consequently tlifl pastures throughout the past six months afforded reasonably fair feed and maintained the stock generally in the excellent condition they are acknowledged to be in now, at tlw opening of the summer season. By the

first week of August early sown crops were looking strong and healthy, and farm work was unusually forward, but the break in the weather which followed interrupted operations, and very much hindered what would otherwise have been an extensive and early

—for this part of the country— spring sowing of cereals. The average low temperamenj since has somewhat checked vegetJatiop, ?? n <i now there is a, prptty widespread complain among farmers of the backward spring, 'p more astute, however, do not regard a tea vigorous early growth with favour ;^ they prefer root development to "flag," aw* therefore maintain that " fill-bag " weather has been experienced so far. No doubt w> contention is the correct one, and will w fully borne out should we have two or t^ eS weeks of genial, dripping weather to for# the crop sufficiently to well cover and protect the ground from sunshine and extreme neat. Preparatory tillage for root and green cr°] j.is unusually well advanced, and fortunately I on an extensive scale, so that when the tiro : for seeding arrives the land will be in exctf * lent pondjtion, and theie will be Ii««a necessity for hurry in the completion or t» spring work on farms. It is as yet impossible to estimate thearas under cereals in Otago this season, or w with any certainty the relative extents m wheat, barley, and oats. From repon already to hand it would appear that u> area under wheat is slightly contract* compared with that of last year. W»l not a favourite with Southern farmers, » circumstances may operate to caase J be more extensively grown this season, the first place, the local markets are q w bare of supplies of English malting f m^ and prices have ruled relatively hign; f* secondly, in some localities the y° an £ T^, crop has been so injured by cac by the melting of snow on the ranges „ i thp'f aimers have probably ploughed, «P <»

crop and resown with barley. With regard to oats— the favourite cereal South — it is reported there will be a material increase of the area usually under crop. On many extensive properties, instead of the homestead system of cultivation, the proprietors have let their lands to farmers and contractors on terms which secure to the owner of the land a certain proportion of the produce. On farms generally there is also a larger breadth comparatively under oats, low as prices for this grain have been, as it was found necessary to break up indifferent pastures. Already much anxiety prevails, and, as will be seen by an analysis of the statistics published in another column, not without sufficient reason, with regard to the ' probable prices of grain during the cereal year 1887-8. In reference to wheat values, the prospects for the producer are the reverse of encouraging. An English statistician, basing his opinion on the estimated wheat production of the world's harvest of 1887, writes : " The price of wheat may be lower under these circumstances in the United Kingdom than it lias been for 150 years." In Australia there is still a considerable surplus of last year's crop available for disposal, and which must apparently be got rid of at a sacrifice compared with rates previously obtainable, or must be carried over to .still further deaden the colonial markets after January. From the statistics submitted to the International Corn Exchange at Vienna, it will be perceived that of ol returns, representing the wheat yield of as many countries, that of 10 is very much over average ; 18 show about or flightly over average : and throe only are under. In the face of these facts, and notwithstanding the lesser yields in the United States and India, an expectation of remunerative prices for wheat is scarcely justifiable. According to the returns, the barley crop in Europe also stands out well. Six of the retutns give over average, 12 about and slightly over ; and, be it observed, these represent the principal barley - producing countries; while 13 arc under average. One favourable view may be taken in regard to the probable prices of barley in the colonies. The harvest for this cereal will find empty stores; still, much will depend on the area under crop this year. The most encouraging prospect of all is that in connection with the oat crop— that is, so far as prices are concorned. The position in regard to oat.s is altogether different. In Italy only is there an abundant crop, and exports therefrom have been at all times inconsiderable. In Prussia there is an average yield, also in three Russian provinces. Fourteen returns show averages ranging from 85 to 1)5, or under the standard average, which is 100. The yield in the United Kingdom is 15 per cent, under, and that in nine other oat-pro-ducing countries is very low indeed, ranging from (55 to 73, as against 100, the average. The probabilities, then, are that with a short crop in some of the principal oat-producing countries in Europe, this cereal will command a remunerative price after harvest, and will pay for exportation to the United Kingdom.

Although the grasses have not gained so much in length as could be desired, where not overstocked they have thickened wonderfully, and there is now pasturage sufficiently substantial and dense to allay all anxieties in regard to summer food for stock. The fall in the price of wool — contrary to expectations — with the continued low rates for beef and mutton and merely nominal prices for butter are, for the present., quite disheartening. The sheep tlocks are everywhere, whether on farm or station, in unusually good condition, and for the most part have been so throughout the winter. This season's clip will therefore be an excellent one in regard to both quantity and quality. It is anticipated by many flockowncrs that the heavier clip will make up for the decline in price, but all the same the Australian wool sales will be scrutinised with much interest. Before the New Zealand clip is ready for market the most import ant of the Australian sales will be over, and, whether for better or i'or worse, our flockowners will have the matter determined for them. Some are hopeful that because wool in Great Britain is in ' short supply values must improve. On the other hand, it must, be borne in mind that it is anticipated a greatly increased bulk will be submitted in Australia this season, where the large increase of lambs— all of which will be shorn — must contribute substantially w the gross clip. What the increase of the flocks in the colony this year will be it is as yet impossible to say, as lambing is not, yet over. Among farmers' Hocks, where "dropping" commenced comparatively early, the lambs are reported to be now well grown and healthy and the percentage satisfactory. On high back country and in large flocks severe losses of lambs have been susiained within the past three weeks; still, it is contended that the casualties will be below average.

There are symptoms of renewed activity in the frozen mutton trade, and which will be probably further stimulated by (lie recently received reports of the partial failure of the winter pasturage and of the hay and root crops in the United Kingdom through the summer drought. It is argued, therefore, that late in the British winter and in the spring there will be a substantial recovery in the value of meat. There is a contingency, however, which ought to be taken into account, and which is^ that the farmers of the I'nited Kingdom may be compelled to reduce the numbers of their sheep and cattle, and thereby glut the market.