PROSPECTIVE PRICES. FARM AND STATION. PROSPECTIVE PRICES.

Otago Witness, Issue 1856, 17 June 1887, Page 6

PROSPECTIVE PRICES.

FARM AND STATION.

Many years ago an eminent authority on the subject wrote : " Agriculture is so healthy, so agreeable, and so moral an occupation that it can. never be extremely profitable; the competition for land will always prevent this. The butcher, the cattle dealer, and the miller will always, if successful, make far greater profits than the farmer, and a decent livelihood, with a moderate interest on the capital laid out, is the most that farmers can expect, even with the greatest assiduity." These observations, published in 1858, were supposed at the time to fairly represent the position and prospects of the British agriculturist, but whilst since then there have been alternating periods of comparative prosperity and the reverse, it was never anticipated that such a depression hi the value of productions could be possible as that which, commencing in its intensity in 1882, has continued to the present time. Nor does it appear that any appreciable or immediate rise in prices is to be expected. The area of production has been so enlarged by the facilities now afforded for the transit of produce from all' quarters of the globe that there is a steadily increasing competition in the Old World markets, and which for the present, apparently, is only restricted by cost of conveyance. Cheap freightage has caused — temporarily it may be — over production, but the evil in time will work its own cure, for even virgin soils are soon exhausted by continuous cropping ; and whether on extensive runs in the colonies or ranches in America, " all is not gold that glitters," as the proprietors have discovered to their cost. In Australia three years of drought devastated flocks and herds, while in ' the Western States of America the losses annually from severity of the winter are enormous.

Five years ago, or shortly after the start" of the Australasian export trade in frozen meat, the American and many of the British journals teamed with marvellous accounts of the capacity for meat production of the Western States of America. No other .country or countries in the world could hope to compete with them, and in meat supplies, as in grain, the United States virtually held a monopoly. The statements were so plausibly and persistently urged that they obtained credence largely in the United Kingdom, where " a rage for investing in American' cattle ranches " set in immediately. Strange to say, the fever was more acute in Scotland than in any other part of Great Britain, and the untoward results will be there most keenly felt. The following figures and particulars from the Statist will give an idea of the extent of the speculations and the exaggerated ideas which prompted them. The Statist states : An Edinburgh firm of stockbrokers-— Messrs Macrprie and Thomson— has forwarded us a very interesting table of results of working in 1886, compared with 1885 of the principle. . . . Taking the prices a year ago and now we find the following uncomfortable comparison : —

The Swan Land and Cattle Company with an authorised capital of £900,000 have had to declare a loss of £27,112 17s 6d on

last year's operations. The Prairie Cattle Company, which also has its' headquarters'" in Scotland, has declared a'loss.ofi£2B9,7 on the past year. . .-. In^thednstince; of the Prairie Company the accounts show that in 18S5 the valuation per steer was 16-87dol, while the' average price realisefl'ftir sales was 20-75d01. In 1886 there was a vast change. The valuation • was 2246d01, while the sales averaged only 17'90d01. Other comparisons will be gathered from -the table,below, -but,- af striking feature in it willbe noticed; viz.—' the falling off in sales and prices realised.

The Statist adds : " Some of the companies have also greatly reduced the number of their herds. The position of debenture - holders where the amount of debt, as frequently is the case, is double the amount of paid up capital is not a pleasant one. Then too^ out of nine companies, five have debit balances carried forward." ■ • • "I

The difficulties which beset stock raising on, the Western ranches in the United States are but little understood, and certainly have no parallel in this colony. In a recent number of the Mark Lane Express copious extracts from American journals are published, which convey a tolerably correct idea of the troubles and position of ranchowners during the past winter.' One of the most favourable ' is from Montana, as follows :— " Except for the snow, we have had no winter worth talking, about, and in many localities the snow has been cleared from the hills so as not to be a burden, The excessive thaw and rain of last week was unseasonable, and unaccompanied as it was by any wind, it simply reduced the 12in or so of' dry snow that had fallen to a wet and soggy mass of less than half the depth. This being succeeded by smart freezing weather has made pretty tough rustling, for cattle, but there are plenty of bare patches, and the cattle in' good condition can stand a little hardship if necessary. Trail cattle will, undoubtedly, suffer- to a considerable extent, as their late arrival on a thin and crowded range has not been conducive of any too robust a condition, but for the cattle interest at large of Eastern Montana there is nothing at present to indicate any wide-spread disaster, or,. in fact, any* thing more than the usual mortality." > <

In Wyoming, on the other hand, the losses were disastrous. The Lafamie Weekly Boomerang of February 24 states: — "The recent blizzard has been terrible in its effects' upon humanity, as well as upon 'cattle and sheep. As the reports slowly come in from different ranges, ifc is found that the weather was more severe than had been' realised, and its effects were terrible. The loss of life from the cold .will .probably reach' 25, while perhaps 50 or 75 per cent, of the cattle have succumbed to the bitter weather. The greatest loss was felt in Custer, Meagher, Chateau, and Yellowstone counties, and as over one-half of the cattle in the territory are on the ranges in these counties, it is believed that one-half, or 600,000 head, is a low estimate. The abovementioned counties, lying east and north of the Eocky Mountains, have suffered most. The banks of Helena are reported to have loaned the cattle men on their stock. over 1,200,000d01, a great deal of which will be lost. Men who have just come from the ranges say that the cattle can be seen frozen on every hand, nothing being visible through the snow but their heads arid horn's. The great danger at present; is of* thousands being drowned in the Yellowstone river. The cattle can get no water' except in the air holes on the river, which are five or six miles apart. A drove of upwards of200 head the other day made for one of these air-holes, and as soon as those in front began drinking the others crowded them forward into the holes, where they soon disappeared under the ice and were lost, all attempts to drive them away having failed, and only about 40 were left. The loss to the sheep is also very great. Hay Brothers, of Geyser Springs, lost a drove of 4,000 sheep in one storm. The animals got astray from the herder in a blizzard and they were widely scattered, Two days later they were found onjthe prairie, frozen.

The depression in the value of cattle has been more severely felt in Texas than in any other State in the Union. The Dallas News, commenting on the situation and prospects, says : — " The cattle business is all demoralised. They know that there is something wrong, but they do not hazard an opinion as to what that something wrong is, nor are they fertile in suggestions by which matters might be righted. They know that ,tinie was when they sat with folded hands and watched their, calves grow into big beeves, > and then received big prices for those beeves, which had cost them next to nothing to produce. On the other band, they know that it now costs them something [to raise beeves, and .that they bring less by lOdol to 15dol per head than they did when it cost nothing to produce them, and that it takes about one-fourth of what* they now bring to get them to market. . . Cattle men know all about raising cattle but when it comes to regulating the markets , they are tackling something new, and they very naturally handle it .awkwardly at first because a stout monopoly and several com plicated questions of political economy com bined are liable to stagger a more powerful industry than the cattle business. But when the country is bound to have beef, and the men who produce it are entitled to the pro* fits, then the cattle men will 8 come out orj top in the end," '

Price Share. 21st Feb. Dividends. fameofCo.Am't.Pd. 1887.- 1888. 1886. 1885. 1884. £ £ a. d. 8. d. p.c. p.c. p.c. 'rairie ... 10 5 26 0 80 0 nil 10 10 !exas ... 10 5 32 6 87 6 nil 5 6 latador... 10 6 72 6 105 0 nil 7 6 lansford ... 5 5 30 0 85 0 nil nil 7 Arkansas ... 10 5 15 0 43 9 ml nil nil •astoral ... 10 5 37 6 95 0 nil 5 8 Western ... Stock 77* 117* 5 10 15 !attle Ranche... 5 5 24 0 25 0 nil nil nil Vestern Banches 65 61 0 70 0 4 4 7 iwan ... 10 6 45 0 105 0 () 6 10