GRAIN PROSPECTS.

Otago Witness, Issue 1787, 20 February 1886, Page 13

GRAIN PROSPECTS.

The unexpected break of the weather on Tuesday evening mv.st prove highly beneficial. The rain, unaccompanied by high wind, continued, with slight intermissions, nearly 20 hours, sothat the land must be moderately well saturated. Although harvest work has been interrupted for the time, the benefits to the pasture-; and root and- green cro^s will more than compensate for the inconvenience. Previously the country was parched and dry; grass there was no:te io speak of, and the root crops wero languishing. Now all are refreshed, and we shall h.ive a renewed and vigorous vegetation, ami farmers will be encouraged to cultivate intermediate crops for winter feed. During the ensuing three weeks — that is, until the harvest has been completed — the weather must necessarily occasion much anxiety to farmers who have grain in the fields, but in the event of vicissitudes no efforts should be spared to preserve it in good condition, as it would seem there h a concurrence of opinion that values will continue firm, and for sundry

The American wheat crop i* admittedly deficient ; and although there are boastings about the quantity of old wheat iv stook in the States, what is really held of this is known not to be first quality. However that may be, it i» reported that there were at date of last advices uo less than 7,000,000 quarters in the hands of American speculatois or gamblers in the corn trade, 'file fact, or the rumour, influences the European markets, and fully accounts for the existing depression and low prices. From Russia, as from the United States, there are wi-11 authenticated reports of a very deficient harvest. The Department of Agriculture, St. Petersburg, has published the returns, which show that the average for winter wheat was above, and that for spring wheat below the ordinary yield. The total harvest of winter and spring wheat is calculated at 36,000,000 quarters, which is 6,000,000 quarters or about 20 per cent, less than the average. The oat crops, the report states, have also been generally bad, and it is added that as the cultivation of this cereal has been considerably diminished throughout the empire, the year has been an exceptionally unfavourable one for oats. So much for two of the largest wheat-producing countries ; but there is another factor— lndia — to be recognised. The Mark Lane* Express, in explanation of the "masterly reserve" of buyers on the London Corn Exchange, gives tho immense quantity of Indian and Persian wheat iifloat and en route to marker,. There was at the time of writing the unprecedented quantity of 57(5,000 quarters, and tho journal quoted adds: '.'lt is worthy of note that the largest quantify ol" Indian and Persian wheat afloat at any one time in previous years was 538,500 quarters; but on the other hand, Australian lias dwindled down to 20,000 quarters on passagoand for shipment. The facts stated above deserve attention, became they have affected, and for some lime must continue to affect, the European markets, hitherto the great consideration for Australasian wheatgrowers. This season, however, as regards South Australia and Victoria, is altogether an exceptional one, and it is right that New Zealand producers should be well apprised of the oordition of the wheat market in those C3olonie«. The South Australian average this harvest is estimated at three bushels per acre, and much of tho wheat is said to bo inferior. Adelaide foimerly supplied Sydney with flour, but this season will have barely sufficient for the population and a small intercolonial trade. The yield in Victoria is much under the average, but it is estimated that there will be a surplus of 90,000 to 100,000 tons." "Where shall this find a market? The answer is- found in It. Goldsbrouofrh and On.'s- report of January, wherein it is stated that "New South Wales and Queensland will take the greater share of it before thf close of the spason." 1 Thi-; view is adopted al^o by the Loan and Mercantile Agency Company, Melbourne, who furnish the further information that at Adelaidf <•• <■ charter, that of th.o ship Bank Hall, had !„• . cancelled, and her cargo sold. to the Adel.-i '. Milling Company at 4s 3Acl (ex ship). In ih. Melbourne markets there have been inquiries for flour on Adelaide account, and sales of wheat, for shipment to fulfil charter engagements of South Australian merchants. . It seems the Sydney merchants have considered the position, and there have been rumours of purchases at San Francisco on Sydney account. On this phase of the subject the Australasian remarks :—": — " The prospect has, therefore, caused Sydney merchants to look to other sources. Taking the latest quotations by the mall for California, which was S6s per quarter, and allowing for the decline of Is, Californian wheat would cost 4s 4h& c.f.i. (oost, freight, and insurance), while Victorian prioes are about 4s 3d. Indian wheat could not be laid down here under 4s 2d, and probably freight would make it even dearer than this." To sum up, the leading newspapers in Melbourne,, as well as grainbrokers and merchants, regard the position, to use their own words, "as perfectly independent of British markets." The circumstances should encourage our wheatgrowers to harvest carefully, so that they may be enabled to put on ' the market a superior, well-dressed sample and obtain the highest prico.