OFFICIAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS.

Otago Witness, Issue 1751, 13 June 1885, Page 6

OFFICIAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS.

Thera are only two considerations which conld jusiify tha oxisendifcuue incurred annually by our Colonial Governments in tho collection of the agricultural statistics, and theua are— firatJy, that becauso of thoroughly organised moasuras lor procuring the information the public would bo assured that tho returns might bo reliad upon ; and, secondly, that these refcutrntfj in order that they might bo of any practical advantage, ahould have much earlier publication, The means adopted by tho 88parata Govemiaenta for tho collection of tha statistics are conceived much on the samo lines, buj; the results have been regarded in two of the principal grain-producing Colonies — Victoria aad South Australia— as so unreliable that tho leading agricultural journals there have for years past found it necessary to procure tho information for themselves, and with the decided advantage of anticipating the official returns by several months. Almost invariably, however, thero is a considerable discrepancy between the statistics furnished by the Prcaa and tho official statement^ and the divergence baa addod to the perplexities of both producers and merchants in regard to the values of grain. This season, as was the case last year, tho South Australian and Victorian Government returns differ materially from those collated and published by tha Adelaide and Melbourne journals, and the matter baa lately been pointedly discussed because of the peculiar aspect of the gram markets of fche two Colonies for some time past.

About five weeks ago there waa an upward movement in the values of wheat in the Melbourne market, and although this waH in some degree attributable, in ths first instance, to the anticipations of war with Russia, other influenooa must have been at work, for after peace has be<_a asimrod wo find the riae still maintained. In the commercial article in the Argus ■A the 27ih May it i 3 afiatad that particulars of sales amounting to 1100 baga, at 33 lOd p3r bushel, were reported. "At the aiinie time this prico has been refused by a number of holders, and we undoratand that oven a higher price has been offered for large linos without Inadiug to business." Tho Argus further observes: "Tho upward movement is princi pally duo to speculation, based upon what are considered to ba favourable prospects of the market in Europe and also upon the South Australian wheat statistics." It is now pretty fgeuerftliy known that beyond thn considfirable quantities of last harvest's Victorian wheat at present iv the hands of speculators, and the bulk uudar engagament for export, there cannot he any largo surplus available after the requirements for seed and local consumption have V.nn nrovidprl. But if the estimated yiold published iv the Australasian proves (to be 'jorrecl tho surplus would be sensibly larger than the official figuree show possible/ The position ia the same in regard to the South Australian Ptatistica, and which are challenged in tha Adelaide Observer of May 25. According to the Government statist tho total yield of last harvest is Bet down as amounting i>o 14,621,725 bushels — a decrease on tho production of the previous year of 27,47? bushels, notwithstanding there was an additional area under cop of 93,303 acres. The customs returns show an export from South Australia of wheat up to the IGlh of last month of 9,000,000 bushels, and to quote the Observer, " Adding for seed wheat as before (2.000,'i00 bushels), and say 1,700,000 bushels for home consumption, the total amount 'Ibposed of or needed before the end of five months ia 13.400,000, or within a million and a q :arter of the total yield as given iv the Government figures " The Observer therefore points out that as the previous week's customs' returns showed an export of wheat and flour equal to 229,429 bushels, at this rate " there would no*, be a grain of breadatuff3 left on hand by the end of July, whereas as a matter of fact there are considerable stocks on hand," The journal quoted certainly makeei out a good caw n't far aa tho Government returns for 1883 84 are concerned, and conclusively proves that tho total yield represented by them was under tho mark by nearly ono million bushels. It is impossible, howaver, to disregard the consideration that the official statistics for this yaar, and for both Colonies may fairy approximate to the actual results, because such appears to be tho opinion of at least an important section of grain operators. Messrs John Duau and Co., in tbeir circular dated Adelaide, 21at May, aay " Foreseeing that there would be a wide discrepancy between tha Press and the official estimate, we have had independent returns prepared by our agents throughout the Colony, and contrary to our expectations theoo raturnu strangely confirm the official fiijuroa according to which the exportable surplus for the whole year is reduced to 290,000 tons. Of this quantity 237,000 tons have already been shipped off; leaving a balance of only 53,000 tons, which will be diminished to 33,000 tons when existing European engagemeats have been fulfilled. It is manifest, therefore, that tha shipments to Europe must now ceaso, and that if the statistics are anything like correct, the balance left for export will be insufficient for tho usual requirements of our customers ia tho southern hemisphere. Ftota lot; June to 31sfc December 1884 our European export was about 60,000 tons, and should the Eamo quantity be required this yoar, aa seems most likely, we can only place against it tho apparent reserve of 33,000 tons. From tho foregoing it will ba seen that former opiniocti respecting the quantity of wheat in tho Colony must uudorgo considarable modification, and that a gradual improvement in our market, irrespective of English prices is something more than a mere possibility. Millers are indisposed to push sales at low prioes, while local holders of wheat see better prices ahead and hang on accordingly." From the foregoing it is evident that firm opinions are entertained both for and against the accuracy of the South Australian official returns, and the same may be said in regard to tho Victorian wheat statistics ; but this tho more forcibly demonstrates the groat necessity for having the work of collection done thoroughly and with celerity, or, aa the Observor suggests, relinquishing it altogether. Reliable figures at the present juncture in regard to the Colonial productions of wheat and oats would be invaluable to growers as well »8 merchants, but clearly no sunh information i 3 available. Here in New Zealand we have never yet hoard of the official statistics having baen regarded as even approximately correct, or aft affoid'mg a safe guide to operators, even if it were the practice to give them timoly publication. Possibly under tho pro mißad Local Government Act some better means than the nresent could ba devised for the collection and verification of the agricultural statistics, and we trust that tho subject will be brought under the notice of the Legislature. At this moment producers- epocala-

tois, and dealers in these Colonies are alike at a loss how to act, and mainly because the productions of las-fc harvest are not known to withia some millions of bushels.