THE COMING WAR.

Otago Witness, Issue 1639, 21 April 1883, Page 4

THE COMING WAR.

.We, have already , said in these 1 , cpkrans (writes Vanity Fair) that the only Europeans' who ever have definite knowledge of the future course of political events, are, the members of secret societies. Long before. Skobeloff spoke at Paris ; long before the Cologne, Gazette ' published the article which- has sent tha English Press into, a frenzy of prophecy and large' capitals, we predicted the approach of trouble between Germany and Russia. While London journals, cleverly inspired by. the revolutionary Pressmen, were informing,, us that Krapotkin ' was enjoying idyllic leisure by the Mediterra nean shores, we said that Krapotkin was -flit-' ting, f rom; town to. town like the storm-bird that he is. The Prince has now been, captured, and hia papers prove that our information was right, and that the revolutionists are in full 'activity. They have not at present much power, but they have a gr.eat deal of useful in- ' formation, and there is not a man'- of them who is not awaiting the sound of the gun.' These secret rulers never .deal in conjecture • their organisation, is so, perfect that they see", clearly, where the persons , described as states- ' men only, grope blindly. , Ifrom the convict towns,. on the. White Sea to Odessa, from Tobolsk., to Dresden and Paris, their unseen machinery extends. While the police of. St.. ' Petersburg, are blundering hither and thither ; while Western statesmen are, sitting in dignified ignorance, ..the. revolutionist leaders are.' receiving accurate news from, cities and towns and villages. Ordinary politicians rely on ' organs of public opinion, forgetting that the men whopretend to represent pubuc opinion have no means of learning the, truth. .But the secret society men make no mistakes;' their, agents, especially in Russia, live with the people, work with them, suffer with them, and gauge their thought rightly. At this pre ' sent moment there are about 8000 well-born and well-educated men and women in Russia ■who are working in the factories, toiling in the fields,' plying in ferry-boats between obscure' villages .on the banks of the obscure streams ; setting up the type of journals, drinking with the .lower classes , in vilo vodka shops, and sleeping in the dens where the poorer subjects of Holy Russia pig together. A secret system of correspondence brings all these threads of propagandism to one centre ; and thus the heads of committees in Switzerland or London know every passing tremor that agitates the national mind.

People in England ask, " Why should there be war between Germany and Russia?' The revolutionist answers, " I cannot Btop to discuss whys and wherefores, I only know that war cannot be avoided. I only know that the people of Russia want war with Germany, and that they will have war, whether official • Russia ' likes or not." Then the [common-sense reasoner comes in, and re marks with proper gravity, " Russia is just recovering from an exhausting war ; her' finances are disordered ; her population suffer here and there from starvation. She cannot enter on a contest with a first-rate power." The man of fact once more makes answer, " 1 can show no reason for the warlike feeling that would satisfy the maker of ' logic books ; I may, however, say in passing that, if nations reasoned, there is not a leadingstatesman in Europe whose neck would be safe. The Russian people in the present case are not moved by reason at all, but only by emotion. What has raised the present feeling in Russia, we do not know ; we only know that a- blind, violent hatred of Germany has become the ruling passion in Russian society of all grades, and that Skobeloff spoke with the voice of a national majority when he declared that ,tha Slav must crush the Teuton. Reason and foresight are put aside, and eager ferocity has taken their place. When Skobeloff' made his tour, the official classes were, in ' doubt as to what steps they should take* It was after the young general was attacked ' by ".contusion of the heart" that the. men, of' ,the sections and the Cabinet saw where to g0.,", A curious position has now arisen. The figureheads of the departments and the leaders of ' the revolution are both pushing towards one end. Terrorism has ceased for a time because . the acute men who handle the vast and murderous Russian caucus think proper to •leave the ruling classes alone. The more the men who wield the power and finance of Rus flia choose to prepare for war the more the ' revolutionists, encourage them, so that the national tendency is not being stayed by tha , slightest drag. If a Russian of the advanced , school hoars war mentioned, he only says, "Sh9 J!222°. r Jill 6 kotaer for us." The ruler.h'6pesTorra«prolonged'lease*bf > rj6 i wer; the con-, spirators hope to get rid of the Germans, and to cause a regenerative anarchy. Thus it is that war is impending. The newspaper man in a foreign capital goes about gadding with junior diplomatists and with other newspaper men ; then he telegraphs Home and informs us that "the clouds" have passed," and then the writer of leading articles tells us in slipshod English the. glad tidings of great joy, Neither the correspondent .nor the scribbling' paragraph-monger knows \ anything about' the matter. They guess before the event and ' prophesy after tne event,, while the stirrings and advances of national feeling are totally darkened to them. . . No one can say with an approach to nearness at what time the war will break out', but it is rapidly coming, and any, morning may bring news of the rapid and momentous step. The Russians fully. expect to be defeated heavily at first, but they are strangely confident. When reminded of the way in which the Prussian hosts, moved upon Paris, they smile. They say : " The cases are altogether .different, You crush Paris and you paralyse " the central ganglion, of Prance. But Russia is, as it were, a creature of another organisation. Crush one ganglion, and, there are still , a hundred nerve-centres unharmed.". , The . zoological simile is perfectly apt and truej and no one knows better than Prince . Bismarck what a task Germany has before her. But at any rate it is .to be feared that . nothing can now avert the catastrophe, and we can only, await the events which «,re marching towardsus so quickly. • ' . " , .-,.•'

— The gradual emancipation of the. slaves.' ia ■ Brazil has not only permitted the country-to-prepare itself for the adoption of .free labour,., but its influence on immigration has also been most marked. From 1864 to 1872 the average, , yearly number of immigrants was under ; .9ooo. - > In 1872 a law was passed in favour of gradual . emancipation, and from that 'data to 1879; the ', immigrants averaged very nearly. ; 23,000,., an- , nually — almost three times .the average before the enactment. -The next .two yeara,showecl. nearly the same.result ; but then/a notable increase was observed, and from.thelpt of Janu- • ary to the 31st- of December, ; 1881,.39,784 im< . migrants landed in Brazil..' -. ,j.,f, „ t ., ( - „;_„,;